jm1220 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Is it possible we're seeing some actual climate shift, resulting in things like the I-95 cities all seeing 5-7 of their top 10 snowfalls over the past 20 years vs. 125+ years of records (saw an article on this last week, but don't recall where)? Sure it's possible, but it's also possible we're seeing the equivalent of flipping heads 4-5 times in a row - unexpected, sure, but not indicative of any actual change in probability, just a short term statistical blip that looks "relevant" since our record is very short from a statistical perspective. Ask me in 1000 years, lol. Long Island itself was formed by a dump of glacier junk, so sure, these things happen. I would assume not so suddenly though (over a decade). Imagine a rain/snow line defined by a 2000+ foot tall glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is snow to rain to snow. 2-4 for NYC then a lot of rain. Inland areas get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is snow to rain to snow. 2-4 for NYC then a lot of rain. Inland areas get smoked. verbatim the GFS shows the only other scenario other than a closed low offshore where this area can get rain to snow behind a low pressure system, a severely negatively titled 500 trof when the surface low is over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is snow to rain to snow. 2-4 for NYC then a lot of rain. Inland areas get smoked.i honestly doubt we get rain like that after such a cold airmass. We could definitely get an ice storm but but I doubt it's a rain event like that. Plus if this doesn't cut where's the warm air coming from. GFS always sucks at dynamic cooling and this will be a strong system. If it cuts obviously it'll end up being snow to heavy rain but I just don't buy this solution. Besides that high to the north is sneaky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 i honestly doubt we get rain like that after such a cold airmass. We could definitely get an ice storm but but I doubt it's a rain event like that. Plus if this doesn't cut where's the warm air coming from. GFS always sucks at dynamic cooling and this will be a strong system. If it cuts obviously it'll end up being snow to heavy rain but I just don't buy this solution. Besides that high to the north is sneaky! It's happened many many times. It can go from teens to 50s in a matter of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It's happened many many times. It can go from teens to 50s in a matter of hoursyea if it cuts this is a good track though I don't buy itSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Euro trended much colder towards the GFS solution. Snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Had a couple of storms realigned themselves by 50-75 miles last winter, NYC would have come close. Same with 09-10. If anyone's really taken this last 10-15 years jackpot, it's been Boston. I wrote a long post on this topic some time ago; and if I can locate it I will re-post it. The first sign something was up was during the 1992-93 winter when Boston came in with nearly 100 inches; the following winter the pattern began to work down the coast some to NYC & LI with the close to 60 inch winter. It was sort of a start & stop thing for the rest of the 1990's...with 1995-96 being historic and the other years being nondescript; but once the new century got underway a definitive departure from what seemed to be the norm for so long was readily apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 06 GFS not as impressive as 00z. Even for the interior it's a trend to a hit warmer and Western track, Still a general 4-8+ north of city, 2-4" for city and immediate areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 06 GFS not as impressive as 00z. Even for the interior it's a trend to a hit warmer and Western track, Still a general 4-8+ north of city, 2-4" for city and immediate areas That high over the Atlantic has a huge nose pushing in from the northeast til 130 hours that probably keeps surface winds more NE keeping the coast snow. It's sort of like what occurred during the 87 storm. This is still relatively far out but I think a track somewhere close to 95 is the end result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 That high over the Atlantic has a huge nose pushing in from the northeast til 130 hours that probably keeps surface winds more NE keeping the coast snow. It's sort of like what occurred during the 87 storm. This is still relatively far out but I think a track somewhere close to 95 is the end result Yea hopefully, GFS pushes ptype issues even up to me for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the trend is colder, and with near-record cold 36 hours before the event...i'd irk on at-least a slightly colder solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 the trend is colder, and with near-record cold 36 hours before the event...i'd irk on at-least a slightly colder solution.Track is still paramount , many of us began the Super Storm with Temps I low teens and never climbed above mid 2nd but storm passed over Knyc and everyone switched to the heaviest sleet I have ever witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 Snow prob forcast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 This could be a doozy for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 he January 29th-30th, 1966 storm hugged the coast and tracked right over NYC...Snow changed to rain and sleet for a while as temperatures rose to 38 in the morning...As the storm moved north the winds became sw and another 3" of snow fell on the back side...7" total for the event...this could be something similar or something else...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Someone will get dry slotted being right on the track Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Track is still paramount , many of us began the Super Storm with Temps I low teens and never climbed above mid 2nd but storm passed over Knyc and everyone switched to the heaviest sleet I have ever witnessed. No one stays snow if the track is over KNYC or west of there. The further west the more mixing and liquid issues for anyone east of the track. It's still 5 days out so of course anything can happen but as currently depicted this is a no win for LI and that would be a first this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 It looks like a snow to rain situation for the coast with snow inland. Right now, every model has a coastal hugger except for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Road trip to Central PA and Western NY if the parallel Euro snowfall verifies. JB has to be honking for that solution. Para GFS shows something similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I will gladly take P type issues after being in the center of Shaft City this whole winter, as long as I can see a period heavy snow. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I will gladly take P type issues after being in the center of Shaft City this whole winter, as long as I can see a period heavy snow. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk I suppose, but going from -10 Sunday morning, to heavy snow, followed, by sleet and freezing rain and finally rain on Tuesday will be another pill that's hard to swallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 going from record cold to heavy rains happen some times...1888 was cursed with this before March came along...1896 also...chit happens sometimes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I think the storm center goes in between KNYC and benchmark. Big storm for NW of big cities. Snow to Rain to Snow for NYC. 2-4" on front. Lots of rain and several inches on the back. I don't see a big negative tilt storm / inland runner here. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z rolling, let's see if it holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 12z rolling, let's see if it holds And the survey says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 And the survey says? Still running, almost there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS looks similar through 00z tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 cutter on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2016 Author Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS takes big leap to euro this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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