#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[BTRWx]

    This is correct, but I assume the poster was referring to the 4 km NAM nest.

Interesting. Thanks! Fwiw, I was initially trying to compare gfs and nam ops. I find that pretty crazy that our meso is similar in resolution to the global!

[yoda]

Broad 1012 MSLP at 84

[Bob Chill]

heh, nice frontrunner on the gfs....like it alot

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty nice CAD at 84 and the MSLP track looks like it's going to be much better.

[mitchnick]

replaced by what, may i ask???

Darts

[Windman18]

GFS is definately weaker. Good sign. The HP hold on a bit longer too out to 84

[yoda]

87 on Raleigh's has 1010 MSLP in W GA

[Bob Chill]

We get like 3-6" on the front. Maybe more. 

[BTRWx]

Initial damming on the gfs looks good

[yoda]

96 over RDU

[Bob Chill]

Jonjon gets blasted this run. Good for him. 

[mdsnowlover]

We get like 3-6" on the front. Maybe more. 

that's a good snowfall.no matter what else happens ty

[BTRWx]

Funny how the para runs mostly seem to be showing a stronger system

[Windman18]

So instead of a 988 over dc like it had yesterday, it's now showing a 1000mb low centered on the southern delmarva.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

that's a good snowfall.no matter what else happens ty

 

Very nice run. IWM has 6 inches near DC.  Weaker low, better track is what we were hoping for to allow for some better CAD.  This is the moneyrun for Canaan Valley they would probably clear 2 feet easily.  

[Bob Chill]

Pretty damn nice front end thump. Lock it up and wash it away. 

 

[clskinsfan]

GFS is much better. Very close to all frozen out here. 

[Staged]

Maybe some back end love too?

[Snowman.]

81 corridor is close to all frozen this run.

[EB89]

Switch back to frozen at 102 hours?

[BristowWx]

 

Maybe some back end love too?

 

that never works out it seems....unless you are sent to a correctional facility

[high risk]

    well, sorta.   The longer-term plans replace the NAM with an ensemble-based system, but it's a long road to get there.  NAM is getting a major upgrade this summer.

 

 

Yes. NCEP will more than likely be phasing it out over the next year or so.

[yoda]

So NAM and GFS giving front end love... hope GGEM continues teh same

[mitchnick]

that never works out it seems....unless you are sent to a correctional facility

yep, I81 in Hagerstown is the place to be    lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

GFS is much better. Very close to all frozen out here. 

 

doesn't look like much precip though.

[yoda]

yep, I81 in Hagerstown is the place to be    lol

 

Good thing Randy... never mind

[mitchnick]

GFS is over 2.5" rain after snow....ughhh

please be wrong

[Bob Chill]

yep, I81 in Hagerstown is the place to be    lol

 

GFS says you owe me 10 large. Double or nothing on the rest of the month?

[MillvilleWx]

yep, I81 in Hagerstown is the place to be lol

I felt a disturbance in the force

[EastCoast NPZ]

The GFS absolutely hates the Shen. Valley.  Every run it seems it places the qpf min. right on us.