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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Rd9108

Rd9108

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Places like West Virginia roughly 6 to 8". Northwestern PA gets into the 10" range and near Syracuse gets into the 1 foot range. So, western PA and New York state do well..

SW PA look like the normal warm air invades quickly after a Thump. Am I reading that correctly?
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ezweather

ezweather

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Euro looks like it has 2 lows..one near WV and one further south

 

The one thing we'll have to look at is how fast the precip moves in.  Sometimes the Euro is a bit slow in moving these systems along. Thats something to watch as we get closer to the event. The key in this event, can we get the moisture to move in quick and get the thump of heavy snow faster.  

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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00z Euro ensemble snowfall means have improved through the general DC/Balt region by 1/2 to 1 inch. Improvements are being seen not by an expansion of snow totals from the west but by an expansion of totals from the north. Could the Euro be beginning to see better CAD? 

 

The Euro members have lows peppered all over the place so it is hard to get an idea of the track it favors but just going by the means it shows a very slight easterly adjustment to the track.

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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Don't know if anyone cares or not about the 6z GFS, but it runs the low center through Elkins, WV and is a torch fest all the way out to Pittsburgh and eastern Ohio. Basically no meaningful snow to anyone in the east. The CAD never has a chance this run. 

 

Edit: Closer look does show a nice stripe of snowfall in Central MD prior to going to all rain. Mountains out toward jonjon do okay before even they flip to heavy rain. Overall, this was a pretty awful run still. The WAA is just too much with the strength of low and the overall positioning of the HP.

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Ji

Ji

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Don't know if anyone cares or not about the 6z GFS, but it runs the low center through Elkins, WV and is a torch fest all the way out to Pittsburgh and eastern Ohio. Basically no meaningful snow to anyone in the east. The CAD never has a chance this run.

Edit: Closer look does show a nice stripe of snowfall in Central MD prior to going to all rain. Mountains out toward jonjon do okay before even they flip to heavy rain. Overall, this was a pretty awful run still. The WAA is just too much with the strength of low and the overall positioning of the HP.

gfs is wrong so who cares. Now the 6z nam on the other hand :)
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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

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gfs is wrong so who cares. Now the 6z nam on the other hand :)

 

It's funny, I just looked at that run too and was actually pleased with what I saw. It is the long range NAM so I heed caution, but the look was definitely more favorable for frozen. I still believe that the CAD signature will trend stronger around game time, but not sure if that would be a reflection of more snow or ice due to the WAA forecasted with this low pressure. If only this sped up by 6 hours or so, we could see a decent front end thump before transitioning to rain around I95 and unfortunately ice out toward the I81 corridor and higher terrain of MD. I'm not basing that CAD prediction off of anything other than past experience with these types of setups. Cold air at the surface is very difficult to erode after an arctic shot like this, but like others have said, it can happen. 

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