Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    joxey
    Newest Member
    joxey
    Joined

#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

Seems the pattern the past 3 days are for great 0Z runs and crappy 12Z runs. Trend continues.

System is coming from very far away and very quickly. Models just struggling for that reason. I've felt since the beginning a weaker and flatter system early on over the TN valley and southeast was more likely and that would ultimately translate to a further east track up in the mid Atlantic and northeast

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

Completely disagree with the snow maps put out on the CMC..A surface low track over Richmond is not supportive of snow for the I95 corridor and cities...The antecedent air mass is nice but without negative NAO and the High moving off the coast is not supportive of prolonged snow/ice particularly near the cities. A couple inches on the front end is plausible but the 6"+ or more? forget about it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

Just caught up on the excitement. Good stuff happening here! Love to get that big thump before any ice and rain. Fingers crossed as I head to off to bed. Can't wait to hear what the king declares.

I don't think the king will be happy with any of this silliness from the court jester weather models

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted

Completely disagree with the snow maps put out on the CMC..A surface low track over Richmond is not supportive of snow for the I95 corridor and cities...The antecedent air mass is nice but without negative NAO and the High moving off the coast is not supportive of prolonged snow/ice particularly near the cities. A couple inches on the front end is plausible but the 6"+ or more? forget about it.

Let everyone fantasize for 30 minutes until the Dr No lays down the law. Think we all know this is a thread the needle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BaltimoreWxGuy

BaltimoreWxGuy

Posted
Posted

Let everyone fantasize for 30 minutes until the Dr No lays down the law. Think we all know this is a thread the needle.

I hear you, but even if the EURO shows something close to the CMC I still dont buy it. Id wonder some analogs with a surface low over Richmond and without a nice high over Quebec region that actually produced significant snow over the metros...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
kurtstack

kurtstack

Posted
Posted

I hear you, but even if the EURO shows something close to the CMC I still dont buy it. Id wonder some analogs with a surface low over Richmond and without a nice high over Quebec region that actually produced significant snow over the metros...

arent many anologs to choose from with fresh arctic air in place like this. You may find similar pattern analogs but likely with a less pronounced antecedent air mass in place. It would take a very strong low cutting west of the big cities to rapidly displace it a 999 mb low over norfolk will slowly erode it rather than chase it out, meaning far more prolonged frozen - as the models have shown us. if you buy the 980 mb hurricane like solution over martinsburg, then yeah even arctic air wont last long.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...