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Potential Big Dog Snow Event February 15th


Stovepipe

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Northern energy scoots the high out like it's a tiny baby getting punted by a norse god. The storm winds up and becomes a power house on the UKMET and cuts way early. Not as strong on the Euro, but the high still gets punted, cold retreats, and the storm cuts over central Tennessee. 

 

Not a very encouraging development at all. Suddenly only the Canadian is still fully in our corner and even it was weird. Oh well, on to tomorrow, though it rarely seems like these kind of things trend back in ones favor.

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Well, the Euro just laid a stinker in the punch bowl. Cuts the LP right up through the mid-state into Kentucky and floods us with warm air. Not sure what happens before it gets there, as I'm only able to access 24 hour panels right now.

Wayyyyyy warm. Wasn't expecting that. The low makes it into the Ohio valley. Miller B city. Everyone west of the valley makes it out with 2-3 inches on the front end before everyone switches to rain. Not a good run at all.

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Wayyyyyy warm. Wasn't expecting that. The low makes it into the Ohio valley. Miller B city. Everyone west of the valley makes it out with 2-3 inches on the front end before everyone switches to rain. Not a good run at all.

All part of the frustration of living below 40N and loving winter weather. Models are just amazingly inconsistent for storms here, but if they lock on one above 40N you can usually take it to the bank. Clown maps from 7-8 days out were almost perfect for the big event in the Midwest last week and the big event in WVA, Maryland, Va etc. For storms in our part of the world LP areas jump 500 miles from on 12 hour run to the next and do it multiple times right up until 2-3 days out.

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I believe we had a Significant Ice storm last year around the same time without blocking if I'm not mistaken.

yeah, and we had heavy snow but, a much taller ridge out west along with lined up lp's up thru Eastern Canada that linked with the +nao thus acting similar to a 50-50. Also, meant to mention on the bright side, tonight's 0z Euro outcome could be a product of it's bias holding energy with the stj back , therefore allowing the northern branch lp to catch , pull it north and phase.
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MRX disco.

 

 

 

 

AFTER A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING FOR THE VALENTINE`S WEEKEND...AND SOME
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO SWING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON MONDAY /PRESIDENTS DAY/.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM...INCLUDING TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...DO THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ONCE
AGAIN...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF THE COLD SUBFREEZING
AIR IN PLACE...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY LLJ WHICH WOULD
ADVECT WARMER TO TRANSITION SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND ALL RAIN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND EVENING. THE GFS...IS TRENDING WARMER WITH
A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TRACK...WHICH WOULD SLIGHTLY CUT DOWN ON ANY
WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A MODEL
BLEND AND WILL MONITOR MODELS TRENDS TO ADDRESS CONFIDENCE IN FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
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After looking at the EPS means and control, the OP is well NW of both. The mean is 2-4+ across the entire state. Control is 6-10 from Cumberland Gap to Crossville and points west north of 40 especially. 2-5 from Knoxville to Tri and .5 to 2 from Knox SW towards Chattanooga.

 

Individual cities.

 

Clarksville has the highest mean at about 5 inches.

 

Crossville is around 4

 

Tri is around 4 inches.

 

Knoxville, Nash and Nooga are around 2.5 to 3

 

Memphis is around 1.5 as is Huntsville.

 

SE Kentucky and SW Va have means around 4 as well.

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After finally getting to see the GFS, it actually has a decent placement on the 00z. Pops a low over South Central Georgia, just doesn't have a very large precip field with it. The initial front comes through with a few inches of snow on there. No clue where MRX gets the GFS was warm/rainy at all. Looks like mostly snow with maybe some southern Valley mixing. It's mostly just not got a lot of moisture.

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Para Euro is also south of the OP. 2-4  inches across most of the mid-state on it. 6+ over parts of the Southern Plateau with 4-5 for most of Eastern TN, SE KY, SW VA.  Far NE Alabama. and most of far Northern Georgia also do well with 3-5 across most of that area, and 10+ in NE Ga up into sw NC with 6+ up the Foothills.

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It's going to be an interesting run for the 12z models.  Specifically, I'd like to see the Ukie and Euro op less amped.  Seeing the ensemble package from the euro last night gave me some hope, but seeing the system slow some is not a great trend.  Conventional wisdom tells me the overrunning precipitation SHOULD be faster than what models show, so at the very least it's possible we can score some winter precip on a widespread basis before a change over to liquid.

We also need to see the high hanging in.  I noticed several days ago a weak -NAO that was shown popping at an opportune time and that IMO is what is helping slow the Atlantic down just a bit and giving the opportunity for the cold air and large high to hang in just long enough to help us.  If that feature trends weaker and subsequent cold dome of air ends up just a tad further north and east it likely won't turn out well, except for CAD areas on the other side of the apps.

 

Still a long way out, but it's been fun to track to this point.  

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Just to tag onto Tnwx. The 12z GFS finally made it to the solution that the Euro has been showing for five days. It is just much drier. Now, the 0z Euro went to Iowa. Hyperbole. The 0z Euro Para looked Good. If the 12z Euro goes to the 12z UKMET, going to be tought to stay excited. Those two have ruled the roost this winter. Interestingly, during the DC blizzard...the Canadian stayed pretty consistent, ther Euro waffled as the GFS came on board, and then they all locked-in. The JMA and UKMet almost never wavered - neither is in our camp right now which makes the 12z Euro important. The 0z had no support from its ensembles, but another run through middle TN, and it is time to lower expectations.

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