February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

[dan123]

You mentioned this in your follow on post, but I think the good step today was that all the solutions went to a coastal low with an earlier transfer and lost the inland runner look. I think we're in a marginal temp situation regardless, but a coastal low maximizes what cold air is available and gives us out best shot at a snowy solution near the cities.

They didn't lose the inland runner look. Several members are still inland and cut big time.

[WxUSAF]

They didn't lose the inland runner look. Several members are still inland and cut big time.

 

The Euro, GFS, and both their ensemble means are coastal. 

[dan123]

The Euro, GFS, and both their ensemble means are coastal.

Spread is huge.

[BristowWx]

Spread is huge.

They look clustered on coastal

[Kevin Reilly]

I'm just poking fun. Ops at range will drive a person nuts looking for reruns of a snow movie. We got spoiled with the blizz when the only thing struggled with was 1, 2, or 3 feet.

Models have been bad here 36 hours ago the Euro had single digit cold for DCA and BWI 24th and 25th in the morning no models can be trusted until at least 0z Saturday Night....thing that has me worried all along is a very warm Atlantic and ridge it may doom us all along the I95 corridor but dammed if you do dammed if you dont set up.

[BTRWx]

Latest Bernie Rayno video: Thinks it's colder than previously modeled.

Thank you for sharing these. I watch all of them.

[WxUSAF]

Spread is huge.

Ok boss

[BristowWx]

Op GFS just wants no part of this. It's an odd look to be sure. Long way to go I guess. But it is the......never mind

[Amped]

EUro seperates the two streams a lot more than the GFS, and has done this so far on every run. Both models are standing their grounds.

[Bob Chill]

Para euro runs SLP right up the coastal plain just inside the coast and up the chesapeake. Some snow but warmer and west of the op. 

 

ETA: winwxluvr should hug the para euro like a koala on his momma. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Para euro runs SLP right up the coastal plain just inside the coast and up the chesapeake. Some snow but warmer and west of the op.

ETA: winwxluvr should hug the para euro like a koala on his momma.

LOL...you're right. But....it's all just fantasy right now.

[showmethesnow]

Reading this board for the mid day runs and you would think by some comments that the models went to hell. Not sure why because after looking at them they seem about the same from last nights and actually have improved somewhat in some aspects. 

[Bob Chill]

LOL...you're right. But....it's all just fantasy right now.

True. And the weeklies just cancelled fantasy early spring. Neg AO/NAO right through the end of the run.

[psuhoffman]

True. And the weeklies just cancelled fantasy early spring. Neg AO/NAO right through the end of the run.

I was only half kidding with my bullish over under yesterday. I think we have the chance for an epic finish this year. Have to get a little lucky but I think there are multiple threats left and this first one may be the worst of them. With some luck I could see one big hit or multiple respectable ones. A lot of luck and we could have a historic finish.

[showmethesnow]

I was only half kidding with my bullish over under yesterday. I think we have the chance for an epic finish this year. Have to get a little lucky but I think there are multiple threats left and this first one may be the worst of them. With some luck I could see one big hit or multiple respectable ones. A lot of luck and we could have a historic finish.

Not one to look beyond 15 days except for casual glances at the indices so really don't keep track of that. Have the patterns being advertised in the longer range actually been verifying this winter?

[WinterWxLuvr]

True. And the weeklies just cancelled fantasy early spring. Neg AO/NAO right through the end of the run.

That's good news. I think the gfs solution from about 240-300 would send me off the deep end. All that cold and tons of precip that just sits in one place. More fantasy.

Get a good cold pattern set in place and this time of year I think we would eventually get lucky. Big precip events are easier to come by this time of year.

If I had to make a call on this one coming up I think at this point I'd have to say a coastal plain runner with mostly rain, no front end this time, but perhaps a more expansive shield of snow on the nw side, most likely too far west for most of us to benefit. Of course, there's enough possibility to keep all of us interested.

[Bob Chill]

Not one to look beyond 15 days except for casual glances at the indices so really don't keep track of that. Have the patterns being advertised in the longer range actually been verifying this winter?

The big stable features have done pretty well on the weeklies. Like the +pna and -epo periods we have seen. Sudden changes like the -ao in early Jan was completely missed in the week 3-4 range. Once it was modeled the weeklies showed it wouldn't last that long. Which it didn't.

At this point we can rely a bit more on experience. When you get some stable blocking going it can last a while. Unsurprisingly now that the weeklies are rolling forward with what the ensembles are really honking about irt to blocking, they are rolling it forward though weeks 3-4.

Ian's rollover plots show it really well too.

I'm on the same train as Psu. If we get what is being advertised then the balance of march won't be boring. It doesn't look like wall to wall cold or anything just a favorable long wave patter to time cold+precip.

The weeklies look really good for an active STJ as well but the precip plots aren't out yet. The h5 look definitely supports a wet southern tier and east coast.

[showmethesnow]

The big stable features have done pretty well on the weeklies. Like the +pna and -epo periods we have seen. Sudden changes like the -ao in early Jan was completely missed in the week 3-4 range. Once it was modeled the weeklies showed it wouldn't last that long. Which it didn't.

At this point we can rely a bit more on experience. When you get some stable blocking going it can last a while. Unsurprisingly now that the weeklies are rolling forward with what the ensembles are really honking about irt to blocking, they are rolling it forward though weeks 3-4.

Ian's rollover plots show it really well too.

I'm on the same train as Psu. If we get what is being advertised then the balance of march won't be boring. It doesn't look like wall to wall cold or anything just a favorable long wave patter to time cold+precip.

The weeklies look really good for an active STJ as well but the precip plots aren't out yet. The h5 look definitely supports a wet southern tier and east coast.

Thanks. Stable blocking, -AO, active STJ, favorable long wave pattern and it being March? Sounds like we can expect a blockbuster or two.  

[Bob Chill]

Thanks. Stable blocking, -AO, active STJ, favorable long wave pattern and it being March? Sounds like we can expect a blockbuster or two.

You're in a much better late season climo zone than me. Seems like elevation and nw areas are looking pretty sweet for now. Once we get past March 10th it gets quite difficult to get an all snow or big snow event near the cities I won't let the last 2 years trick me into thinking otherwise. They were very unusual and this winter has a warmer background state for sure.

Weekly precip plots came out. My guess was right, pretty juicy from the deep south up the coast.

[midatlanticweather]

Reading this board for the mid day runs and you would think by some comments that the models went to hell. Not sure why because after looking at them they seem about the same from last nights and actually have improved somewhat in some aspects. 

Go big, or go OTS! 

 

#Blizzardbias 

[psuhoffman]

Thanks. Stable blocking, -AO, active STJ, favorable long wave pattern and it being March? Sounds like we can expect a blockbuster or two.

I feel confident there will be several more winter storms in the east this year. Of course even a great pattern doesn't guaruntee we get bullseyed by any of them but the significant features look stable and at day 15 I see no signs the blocking is breaking down. The kind of epo AO blocking shown can be fairly stable and usually takes a while to break down. Think Nov Dec in reverse. Odds of one of these systems hitting our area are pretty high IMO. Some luck and multiple hits possibly.

[psuhoffman]

You're in a much better late season climo zone than me. Seems like elevation and nw areas are looking pretty sweet for now. Once we get past March 10th it gets quite difficult to get an all snow or big snow event near the cities I won't let the last 2 years trick me into thinking otherwise. They were very unusual and this winter has a warmer background state for sure.

Weekly precip plots came out. My guess was right, pretty juicy from the deep south up the coast.

good point about climo. I'm sure most know but in March that has to be factored in more. The same pattern probably has muted potential to some degree. First week of March less then later though but even in a good setup storms probably only will produce 50-70% of potential east of the fall line. Expectations have to be kept realistic. When I say it could be an epic pattern obvioiely that's for March. If the metros score a couple 3-6" storms that has to be considered a win for this late. That said there is still hope for a flush hit into 95. Enough examples to show its possible and this kind of pattern is rare enough to think it could do it.

[clskinsfan]

I would think next weeks storm will trend colder as we get closer. We have a decent HP. Its not the coldest air to the north. But anything in the 1030's should do the job.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I would think next weeks storm will trend colder as we get closer. We have a decent HP. Its not the coldest air to the north. But anything in the 1030's should do the job.

Could be, but a strong high could push any real precip right out of here.

[psuhoffman]

After picking apart the weeklies yea what bob said, wow it gets better each week right to the end. My only complaint would be the best look is March 7-14 and that is starting to push the limits of when we can realistically hope to do well. Won't be boring that's for sure.

[psuhoffman]

Could be, but a strong high could push any real precip right out of here.

I still don't really buy that with so much ridging in front. If anything digs into the trough it won't have any trouble backing the flow ahead of it enough to get up the coast. The op euro was pretty weak sauce for a low and still did it. The ensembles and para still a more juiced up system. I think temps will be our bigger fight. Long way to go with lots of moving parts though. Models have to resolve the system over the weekend coming across west to east, the strength and interplay of the two vorts, how much every digs into the trough, and the timing of any northern branch features as possible kickers or even partial phasers that could still pull this west. and all that is happening during a pattern change as blocking is developing. Actually some blocking develops over Greenland ahead of it now then breaks down before reloading. That new development may be why thinks look colder all of a sudden. I don't expect models to handle this one well at all.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Can I get excited about this one yet, or should I give it a couple more runs?

[BristowWx]

Can I get excited about this one yet, or should I give it a couple more runs?

Saturday night. That is when you can get jiggy with it. Until then you must be calm. There are many things that can and/or will go wrong.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

You're in a much better late season climo zone than me. Seems like elevation and nw areas are looking pretty sweet for now. Once we get past March 10th it gets quite difficult to get an all snow or big snow event near the cities I won't let the last 2 years trick me into thinking otherwise. They were very unusual and this winter has a warmer background state for sure.

Weekly precip plots came out. My guess was right, pretty juicy from the deep south up the coast.

 

 

good point about climo. I'm sure most know but in March that has to be factored in more. The same pattern probably has muted potential to some degree. First week of March less then later though but even in a good setup storms probably only will produce 50-70% of potential east of the fall line. Expectations have to be kept realistic. When I say it could be an epic pattern obvioiely that's for March. If the metros score a couple 3-6" storms that has to be considered a win for this late. That said there is still hope for a flush hit into 95. Enough examples to show its possible and this kind of pattern is rare enough to think it could do it.

 

If the indications for the last part of February and early March are correct, I would think even in the metro areas we'd be in a good place to score at least one more solid event.  As PSU says in the quoted post above, one has to keep expectations reasonable of course, given the time of year we're getting into.  You cannot expect a HECS-level event unless things really line up just right (say, something like the 1993 March Superstorm, but that was exceptional).  I wouldn't even necessarily think we'd get more than one good snow the rest of the way, though it is possible.

 

I've said before that I didn't think we're "done" just yet, and thought we might well get a memorable late season send-off.  The climo does get rapidly less favorable for us here closer into town beyond approx. March 10 as Bob said above, but I think we should have some shots up to that time (and perhaps beyond if the longer range pattern thoughts are right)...basically from whatever happens with the event next week and on.

 

Personally, I'd feel it would be a success if we got something like a March 5 last year or a St. Pat's Day in 2014, and had at least a few more days of solid cold (in both of those events, it was below freezing even the day after the snow ended).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Can I get excited about this one yet, or should I give it a couple more runs?

 

Not trying to sound overly down on the event next week, but personally I don't feel all that great about it.  Marginal temperatures and a highly uncertain track at this point.  I'm hopeful that maybe things will break in our favor, but until I see real evidence that it will, I'm not that big on it.  I will say some of the model solutions today made things a bit more optimistic.