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WinterWxLuvr

February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2

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I've done an interpolation of my extrapolation of the NAM ensembles and have concluded that I should just wait on the 12z Euro.

Sounds like you've done a slip shot job. You need an additional hour of study. Go ahead and no posting until you're finished.

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The shortwave has not been sampled correctly because it is not on shore

 

Please tell me you are trolling. 

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it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms.

 

Just looked at the EPS. There's a cluster of northern fringe or misses to the southeast that didn't really show up @ 12z yesterday. What a complicated setup. Even the monday wave is moving around. 

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what the heck are the NAM ensembles?    if you're talking about the SREF, that is an incorrect characterization of them.

 

 

I've done an interpolation of my extrapolation of the NAM ensembles and have concluded that I should just wait on the 12z Euro.

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para gfs has a more consolidated slp once the first peice of energy gets squashed. The high in New England doesn't hold steady to maintain cold air for the metros, but the track is slightly improved over 0z/6z gfs

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The para gfs just keeps chances rolling along.

 

It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol

 

We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. 

 

gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht.gif

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It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol

 

We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. 

 

gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht.gif

 

I am with you on this Bob, maybe more overall snow days for the kids here in Northern Delaware in March versus this month, the way things could be potentially setting up.  

 

I also see the AO forecasts are continuing to trend downward. Very encouraging signals ahead . - NAO also by early to mid March as well.  

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It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol

 

We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. 

 

gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht.gif

I would love to have had that in early January.  The para just keeps waves of precip rolling through.  Nothing heavy.  Only bad thing is we are walking a really tough path with ground temps this time of year.

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Did you read that before posting it?

:lol:

Some of you!...I spelled it the way it should be.

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I would love to have had that in early January.  The para just keeps waves of precip rolling through.  Nothing heavy.  Only bad thing is we are walking a really tough path with ground temps this time of year.

 

It's probably just noise in the big picture but we seem to be on a late winter heater for reasons (if there are any) way beyond my comprehension. I know we are all location specific but I'm already satisfied with this winter. Chasing 1 or 2 more that actually produce would be fun. My March 10th or so I'm always ready for warmer weather but for now I'll take anything that comes and be happy. 

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I am with you on this Bob, maybe more overall snow days for the kids here in Northern Delaware in March versus this month, the way things could be potentially setting up.

I also see the AO forecasts are continuing to trend downward. Very encouraging signals ahead . - NAO also by early to mid March as well.

It's easy for schools in Middletown to close. All I have to do is whisper the word snow in the Appo superintendent's ear and boom, closed for two days.

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GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. 

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My ground temps are terrible. Still rock hard.

Always.  I don't expect anything different.

 

What I was trying to say was late Feb and early March are a different animal.  On Jan 10 you can get accumulating light snow during the day with a temp of 28 or so.  Try that in late Feb.  Not near as easy.

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GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. 

Yeah, it's pretty bouncy.  I guess we play the wait and see game again.

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GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. 

common theme emerging is the lack of cold air..at least for now...that GFS set up wouldn't be half bad if it were colder...but it beats the wound up apps runner so not going to complain too loudly

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common theme emerging is the lack of cold air..at least for now...that GFS set up wouldn't be half bad if it were colder...but it beats the wound up apps runner so not going to complain too loudly

gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper

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gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper

True.  its not like the cold air is that far away but that won't cut it.  of course a wound up monster would probably head west.  I don't like any of this so far.

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True. its not like the cold air is that far away but that won't cut it. of course a wound up monster would probably head west. I don't like any of this so far.

Haven't trends this year moved towards colder solutions as we get closer in time to an event? IF we can keep that track then maybe we still have a shot?

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gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper

 

Meanwhile the EPS mean precip went up @ 0z last night compared to 12z. It's complicated and we don't do that well here very often. 

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Fantasy land GFS (>250) has a nice look with arctic air and some overrunning.  

 

Also has a beautiful blizzard like coastal toward way out in lala land.  

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