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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol

 

We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. 

 

gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht.gif

I would love to have had that in early January.  The para just keeps waves of precip rolling through.  Nothing heavy.  Only bad thing is we are walking a really tough path with ground temps this time of year.

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I would love to have had that in early January.  The para just keeps waves of precip rolling through.  Nothing heavy.  Only bad thing is we are walking a really tough path with ground temps this time of year.

 

It's probably just noise in the big picture but we seem to be on a late winter heater for reasons (if there are any) way beyond my comprehension. I know we are all location specific but I'm already satisfied with this winter. Chasing 1 or 2 more that actually produce would be fun. My March 10th or so I'm always ready for warmer weather but for now I'll take anything that comes and be happy. 

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I am with you on this Bob, maybe more overall snow days for the kids here in Northern Delaware in March versus this month, the way things could be potentially setting up.

I also see the AO forecasts are continuing to trend downward. Very encouraging signals ahead . - NAO also by early to mid March as well.

It's easy for schools in Middletown to close. All I have to do is whisper the word snow in the Appo superintendent's ear and boom, closed for two days.

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My ground temps are terrible. Still rock hard.

Always.  I don't expect anything different.

 

What I was trying to say was late Feb and early March are a different animal.  On Jan 10 you can get accumulating light snow during the day with a temp of 28 or so.  Try that in late Feb.  Not near as easy.

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GFS is having a really tough time with this wave setup. Euro is having its own troubles as well. Hopefully we start to see some run to run consistency this weekend. 

common theme emerging is the lack of cold air..at least for now...that GFS set up wouldn't be half bad if it were colder...but it beats the wound up apps runner so not going to complain too loudly

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common theme emerging is the lack of cold air..at least for now...that GFS set up wouldn't be half bad if it were colder...but it beats the wound up apps runner so not going to complain too loudly

gfs is hardly a storm. Ive seen more qpf from a clipper

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True. its not like the cold air is that far away but that won't cut it. of course a wound up monster would probably head west. I don't like any of this so far.

Haven't trends this year moved towards colder solutions as we get closer in time to an event? IF we can keep that track then maybe we still have a shot?

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Not sure if u were serious or being sarcastic but I think elevated areas 'just' N and W will do well. 200 miles seems a little extreme. Again, just my thoughts and opinions attm.

 

Yeah, I'm bitter lately and being a little extreme.  Still, I don't see this storm producing anything noteworthy for us out here.  Maybe further west into the higher elevations in WV.  

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Yeah, I'm bitter lately and being a little extreme.  Still, I don't see this storm producing anything noteworthy for us out here.  Maybe further west into the higher elevations in WV.  

 

I think you guys are in the game for some accumulating snow, but yeah the WV ridges probably have the best shot.  Looks like the cities can just about stick a fork in this one.  

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I don't think there's any way that we will be able to say with any certainty until about Sunday.  I know I'm just stating the obvious here.  

 

It's still fun to discuss the model runs.  I think we all feel pretty good that there's going to be a storm.  It's better than nothing.

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