AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 another weird picture of some random ens plots... they look purdy though (dont kill me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 another weird picture of some random ens plots... they look purdy though (dont kill me) The cocs do look good that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 What weenie run. The pattern looks fantastic d11-15. Blocking? Check. Confluence? Check. 50/50?. Check. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 d7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 The cocs do look good that far out. Did you read that before posting it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It's going to be a long week for some of you. lol I'm not jumping on anything for at least another couple days. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The cocs do look good that far out. They look good close in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 They look good close in too. never seen such a good set of cocs at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ian, what does SV have for analogs for d11-15 from thr 12z EPS? There has to be some good ones in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 What weenie run. The pattern looks fantastic d11-15. Blocking? Check. Confluence? Check. 50/50?. Check. Heh. Mr Cohen will certainly be happy. He wants the winter to go out with a bang! I believe he will get his wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Mr Cohen will certainly be happy. He wants the winter to go out with a bang! I believe he will get his wish. But was it really the result of the SAI? The process driving it are like almost 2 months late. I'll go with weather being weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Are we looking at a Miller A+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Boy, if I was in NE/ENE, I would be going nuts with that ensemble snow forecast on the Euro. Not that almost 6" for DCA/BWI is bad over the 15 days, but they're 10"-12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 25/26 out of 52 EPS members with 2" of snow or more for DC and Baltimore Metro over the next 15 days. (Weatherbell Maps) 15 members show 6" +, 3 more with the 6" line right through DC. 12z Para GFS better than 6z GFS and probably 12z OP. Still a little too warm, well for the front, actually it's kind of close, it would be great if we had detailed rain/snow line and thermals for the Para, a guess based off maps is like 3-6" for the cities on the back end maybe. Super Juiced, long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This is great ensemble support for day 6. Encouraging to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 They look good close in too.I knew you couldn't resist . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 holy para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I can't remember the specific pattern in place, but I keep thinking back to March 2-3, 2014. We had a mild (above normal) Sunday, with rain that moved in that evening, cold air finally arrived overnight into Monday morning, and we ended up with a decent cold/snowy Monday. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/liveblog-live/liveblog/live-updates-march-winter-storm-hits-d-c-area/ I remember that fondly. That's the day my son was born at the house. He's a snow kid from birth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 But was it really the result of the SAI? The process driving it are like almost 2 months late. I'll go with weather being weather. True, but he will most likely claim a victory ( assuming all this happy talk pans out ) More so typical El Nino progression and maybe some help from the weakening of Nino 1 and 2 regions , and the improving QBO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 what model run is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Seems healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 what model run is this? It is the 12z Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 What weenie run. The pattern looks fantastic d11-15. Blocking? Check. Confluence? Check. 50/50?. Check. Heh. yea the ens mean spikes up again in the day 10-15 period, 6" nw of the cities for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 This is hr 180 from the white label model. Shows the mean 850 low pass right over the bay. Similar to the op with the 850 line running 95 for a period. Overall this run is colder @ 850 than 0z so that is good. Hopefully the trends on future runs solidify that being on the winning side of the column is favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The Para cant be right. It bullseyes Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Ryan Maue @RyanMaue Highlighted where we have most confidence in snowfall forecasts -- during next 5-days for Wash DC. #ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Seems the wave breaks, HM spoke about yesterday act as a confluence maker. He stated the Monday S/W in New England acting as a transient 50 / 50, very interesting. https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/700064993123966978 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 It is the 12z Para GFS Where do you get the para gfs? The NCEP model guidance site only shows the gfs. There is no para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Where do you get the para gfs? The NCEP model guidance site only shows the gfs. There is no para. http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/ It will look like the regular site, just pretend like your going to look at the normal GFS... but that site will load the Para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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