Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie lol....Road trip to Cleveland anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Chaos can be fun. Hey, at least it's not a total shut out. If Euro holds on, we live another day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The setup looks very ugly on all models except the euro and even that isn't far from looking like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The GFS is just much faster to bring the low up the coast, doesn't let any type of cold air build in.It's s good problem to have as the low is coming and the high can catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 00z GGEM brings the storm out as two waves that are not even close to snowstorms. Not a good start to the 00z suite. It looks close to a snowstorm to me. It's a tick west and warmer from the 12z run. It looks like my prediction that it would go east was a bad call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I can tell @ 105 hrs that the EURO is going to be bad...it is phasing the northern branch s/w.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro way better than the GFS at 120. Would start as snow for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Interesting, while it does phase the N branch, it shoots out energy out ahead....too warm for the cities but the NW burbs get some snow it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 81 corridor gets smoked.. DC gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I-81 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 81 corridor gets smoked.. DC gets nothing. Can you tell if it's because of surface temps or 850s? How's IAD look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I can tell @ 105 hrs that the EURO is going to be bad...it is phasing the northern branch s/w.... Euro way better than the GFS at 120. Would start as snow for most of us.Which is it? Bad or way better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Can you tell if it's because of surface temps or 850s? How's IAD look?iad is all snow but wet snow if looking at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 81 corridor gets smoked.. DC gets nothing.lol who cares about dc. This was never their storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 West of the cities it looks good. 850's for IAD and points west look cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 West of the cities it looks good. 850's for IAD and points west look cold enough for snow.good thing snow heavy and falls at night because ashburn starts above freezing for entire storm. El nino snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 We're in this euro 12z loOKs better than 00z cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 We're in this euro 12z loOKs better than 00z cycleIf this starts Tuesday before 7pm then at least its refreshing to know we will have the 12z 2/23 Euro in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 QPF amounts for le Euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 QPF amounts for le Euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I feel like this has the potential to ultimately be somewhat of a disaster. I just don't like this event. I think it's the Ukie that keeps spooking me with these west solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 QPF amounts for le Euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk generally an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 QPF amounts for le Euro? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The setup low on Sunday night is uneven but it roughly drops .2 inches 95 corridor with heavier amounts north and west of .25-.35 inches. Again rough estimates but the total precip, including the sun-mon low, are around 1 inch 95 corridor with higher amounts north and west of 1.2-1.4 inches. So maybe roughly a .8-1 inch falls for the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Not really going to delve into the op runs at 5+ days out but looking at the steep gradient on snowfall just to the north and west of the cities tells me that just 1 or 2 degrees colder is all the difference between pity flakes and a 6+ inch event for them on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Wxbell is being screwy again but from what I can see there has been a significant shift on the GEM with the 500's in regards to the trough. In my opinion a very good shift. Don't have access at this moment to the surface so don't know if it translates down to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Fairly significant shift on the EPS 00Z run. Instead of a low forming around SC and then running it up the coast it now forms the low further to the west around Miss. and Alabama and drives that up into Eastern Kentucky and Tenn. before shunting it to the east through MD. Now maybe the Euro is catching onto something but with the GEFS and GEM showing a coastal track for a couple days as well as the EPS showing a coastal track for 4+ days I have to question if this is just a wonky run. I have noticed this winter on several occasions that the Euro seemed to have issues for a few runs around mid range (4 - 6 day) only to move back to it's original solution as we got closer to the event. Edit: Was having a lot of issues with wxbell when looking at the 00Z ensembles earlier but after taking a quick glance again it seems that both the GEFS and GEM have actually shifted west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 6z gfs has enough cold air for modest snow in elevated banjo land, otherwise rain through Thursday evening for most in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well, at this rate southeastern Michigan is going to be ground zero when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The differences between the gfs and the last 2 nam runs is stark. Nam really develops the Sunday/Monday storm and pulls cold air south leaving a strong nw flow of cold air advection into the area. Gfs squashes that storm which precludes the cold air advection leaving a lousy setup for our storm. I'm thinking gfs caves to nam, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 On a different note, the day 10 euro 500mb looks like a map from 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Trend overnight was towards taking the low into the Ohio valley then some sort of transfer, but looks right overhead or just off the coast at our latitude. Nice signal for a rain event if it evolves like that, given the lack of cold air. Need the low to track further south and be a coastal to get snow out of this, but its trending in the wrong direction. What Mitch said in the post above would work, but I am not putting much faith in the NAM beyond 60h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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