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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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6z gfs good track but where is snow?

the second wave was the one that had a chance. Gfs squashes it putting too much into the lead wave. Actually it kind of splits the difference and neither develops. Track good but the storm never gets going. Weak low with light precip won't work in a marginal air mass late February. I count this run as a positive. It at least abandons the cutter idea. There are a lot of moving parts here, with two competing vorts close together again. The second is the one we want to be the main player. The cold not being established makes this a long shot but worth tracking. After still looks better.
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why are you always up so early?

6z gfs looks like rain

Not by choice. Wife has to get up around 3 to beat the traffic down to Fort Meade so I get up to take care of the dogs and help her get ready. Gives me some time to look over the models and boards before my day starts. Would rather spend the time later in the day doing this but most times it is too difficult except for a quick glance or two.

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Eps shat the bed by going from a hair under 6" at 12z to 3" at 0z for the 15 day forecast.

it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms.
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it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms.

Well, the mean lost the day 6-7 storm which pretty much accounts for the reduction.
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Eps shat the bed by going from a hair under 6" at 12z to 3" at 0z for the 15 day forecast.

There was a slight shift on the means to the west which partially accounts for this. I think what was somewhat more concerning though was what I noticed after looking over the individual ensembles for the Euro. Didn't bother counting but the largest camp of solutions (maybe half?) ran the low over top of us or to the west. By far the smaller camp had a track suitable for us. Think the means are being skewed somewhat because quite a few show this running out to sea.

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Well, the mean lost the day 6-7 storm which pretty much accounts for the reduction.

there is way too much going on and blocking getting established. Models are going to have issues in the day 5-8 period. As the longer range gets into view I expect to start seeing some shocked face worthy op runs soon. 6z gfs might be popping one out day 11 now.
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Something to keep an eye on. Some hints now of blocking near Greenland day 5 or so. That kind of came from nowhere. Might shake things up for the day 6-8 thing. Mega blocking signal day 10-15

Looks like some ridging out in front of that monster N Canada vortex temporarily pokes up into Greenland. Very transient though, and not sure it would really help much given the location of the vortex and the persistently higher heights east of the Maritimes. Too bad we cant transpose those 2 features.

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Ops runs are a roller coaster ride at this range. We have been down this road before. Use the ens means at this range for guidance...it is an amazing tool.

They can be useless too at this range especially considering the large spread.

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it's not as bad as it looks. It's still an overall upwards trend when viewed with the last 4/5 runs. Lately seems 12z jumps up then 0z backs off some. Also looking at the runs most of the difference is that we lost a couple crazy runs from 12z. Losing 2 members isn't a big deal but if they had 20-30" it sure hurts the mean. Still a good number of decent runs in the mix. Even some that hit to our southeast. I like to see the spread. That works better for us then being on the southeast edge of anything. That fails when the edges start to tighten up as the outliers fall away. Now the outliers are the Richmond storms.

 

Just looked at the EPS. There's a cluster of northern fringe or misses to the southeast that didn't really show up @ 12z yesterday. What a complicated setup. Even the monday wave is moving around. 

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It's a good period coming up. No guarantees of course but it's a nice look for more than a 15 minute thread the needle event. lol

 

We can work with this type of general upper level circulation and it has a lot of support. Basically unanimous. 

 

gfs_namer_225_500_vort_ht.gif

 

I am with you on this Bob, maybe more overall snow days for the kids here in Northern Delaware in March versus this month, the way things could be potentially setting up.  

 

I also see the AO forecasts are continuing to trend downward. Very encouraging signals ahead . - NAO also by early to mid March as well.  

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