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February Med/Long Range Discussion Part 2


WinterWxLuvr

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So we've got...

 

GFS...a weaker looking storm that develops a bit offshore, but does give us some snow it appears and stays cold.

 

ECMWF...a stronger storm, warms up quickly, has a GL type of low that the GFS did not really have.

 

GGEM...pretty strong storm, looks like a good front-end and then ice/sleet(?).  There's a GL low but a bit farther north than the Euro.

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Even west of DC the surfae warms above freezing,  I'd be leery of buying into that as long as the low stays over the bayy or points east.    Models usually are OK at 850 but often have problems at the surface. 

models have a bias of getting rid of the surface temps too fast. Looks like a pretty serious snow/ice storm for me

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What's odd is that at least for awhile, it looked better than the 00Z result!  In this one, I don't even know if we get as much front end snow before the 850s torch by some 20 degrees or so in a 24 hour period.

 

Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. 

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Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. 

 

Yes.  We are kind of dealing with the pattern starting to (temporarily) relax right around that time.  The Canadian had a better solution for us, it appears to me.  Maybe I'll hug that for now, haha!  The GFS actually sort of did what you were saying about a quicker shortwave, or at least it was weaker, and we don't torch like the Euro shows.  Of course, it's not a lot of snow either as depicted, but still.

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Once that high gets off the coast like that it's straight ocean air coming in. It still has to modify of course but the high is in a really bad spot unless another weaker high is sliding across to the N. We're a long ways out to worry much either way. It's not a good clean snowstorm pattern at all though. That's unanimous on ens. The quicker the shortwave can come in and attack the cold air the better. 

No way to keep cold in with that set up for the coastal plain. GFS has the weaker, quick hitting idea. I would prefer that and get a modest snow, and watch it melt a day later lol.

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there are some monster hits on the EPS and alot of modest to good snows. E41 please LOL

 

Look at the e41's panels and how it gets there. Low tracks up the DE bay into CPA and dumps wrap around after the midlevels have been compromised and then cool again. That happens all the time here. haha

 

I skipped through a bunch of the members. Pretty much the same theme as the op with variations. West of DC will do better. Mean precip is 1"+ and mean snow is 3" for DC. Not a good ratio there. lol 

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Euro ensembles are pretty much locked into the snow to rain (and lots of it) evolution next week. Crazy consensus for the lead time.

Dang man...20s to 40s just like that. But thus is the nature of our beloved region!

Could very well be a one-hit wonder winter! Now I'm guessing the timing for this next potential non-event may fall Mon. into Tues. (or is it too early to say? Either way I'm just about ready to punt it, lol)

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