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Feb 7-10th stalled out/meandering low pressure system potential.


dmc76

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Well the 18Z GFS took away pretty much all the lake effect snow from this up to Tuesday..............

 

Winter 2016: Expect the least amount of snow and the worst-case scenario for snow...

 

 

Edit: It has most of the synoptic snow missing us to the north and east too, because the low is farther up that way. so shocked...

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As the low approaches from the NW, the profile does take a more favourable turn.

 

attachicon.gif18_GFS_090_43.63,-79.21_severe_ml.png

 

 

attachicon.gif18_GFS_102_43.82,-79.32_severe_ml.png

 

Think our best chance for LES/LenhS is early on in the event (say Sunday night into Monday morning). Could have sufficient delta-t's at around 900mb to support a single band. Moisture looks good, and with LES that shallow I don't think shear should be too much of a problem.

 

And even if the LES doesn't pan out, it's like 36-48 hours of moist easterly upslope flow. 18z GFS is showing a long duration 0.50-0.75" of QPF. It's a very intriguing setup. I'm gonna call it now...not sure exactly where yet but I think someone ends up with a 3 day total of a foot of snow. 

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Think our best chance for LES/LenhS is early on in the event (say Sunday night into Monday morning). Could have sufficient delta-t's at around 900mb to support a single band. Moisture looks good, and with LES that shallow I don't think shear should be too much of a problem.

 

And even if the LES doesn't pan out, it's like 36-48 hours of moist easterly upslope flow. 18z GFS is showing a long duration 0.50-0.75" of QPF. It's a very intriguing setup. I'm gonna call it now...not sure exactly where yet but I think someone ends up with a 3 day total of a foot of snow. 

These mesoscale events tend to over perform as the globals can have a tough time picking up on QPF output. Last weeks system and the 4" clipper show how a favourable flow can really produce around here. 

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These mesoscale events tend to over perform as the globals can have a tough time picking up on QPF output. Last weeks system and the 4" clipper show how a favourable flow can really produce around here. 

 

Don't want that lead coastal system deepening rapidly. It could force the ul further south which would shunt the best dynamics to our SW plus make the flow more NEly, reducing the lake's input. That's my main concern at this point. However, so far, aside from a rogue run here and there, models haven't been too eager to show that.

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Don't want that lead coastal system deepening rapidly. It could force the ul further south which would shunt the best dynamics to our SW plus make the flow more NEly, reducing the lake's input. That's my main concern at this point. However, so far, aside from a rogue run here and there, models haven't been too eager to show that.

 

The Euro/GFS/CMC all have a similar track with the southern low ATM(from VA/NC to off the Delmarva and up the coast). The Euro does differ from the other two when it comes to the track of the northern stream low. It stalls the LP centre further north across N lower MI while the GFS allows it to sink further south before stalling... resulting in a much more favourable setup.

 

The EPS are in the middle right now.

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Hoping to get some wind-blown snow showers, and perhaps some squall action on Monday on the back side of this thing.  Don't think we'll see much accumulation overall, but this system has the potential to at least make it look wintry out there for a day.

 

EDIT:  Euro says no, just a few flurries perhaps on Monday.  Cool.

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Don't want that lead coastal system deepening rapidly. It could force the ul further south which would shunt the best dynamics to our SW plus make the flow more NEly, reducing the lake's input. That's my main concern at this point. However, so far, aside from a rogue run here and there, models haven't been too eager to show that.

How would 850mb temps be like? Would they support LES?

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Tempatures are marginal on Monday for the majority of SeMI. 36-38 degree highs. The good news is that will help in keeping roads clear.

 

IWX and most of the offices think this will happen Monday night- Wed. 

 

Remember: The models always have a hard time with LES and LES setups. It showed me getting 7 inches of LES earlier, now 4. 

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0z GFS trends wetter. ~30hrs of upslope flow in some shape or form.

 

Yeah...but I'm noticing the trend of not having that arctic front actually pass us. Now it seems to get hung up across the Nickel Belt. So we really don't tap any of the cold air over Quebec. Gonna be tough to get LES without that airmass in play...but the synoptic/upsloping potential could easily make up for it.  

 

edit: ugh...forget about LES. looking at the GFS sfc temps, we bet hope we don't flip to rain :lol:

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