BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 This week into early March is usually the time period for peak ice on Erie. Look at the lake...The good news is that the lake will be warming quite quickly this spring so less lake breezes and a quicker start to summer! I go back and forth on what my favorite season is but still think summer is definitely my favorite. Nothing beats humid nights and warm sunny days on the beach! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 I think it's the SSW that's ongoing right now, I have read from somewhere that once the final warming occurs the PV won't recover till next winter, could we be looking at an early spring? El Nino is still strong. The forecasted quick weakening in the models was way off. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf A record strong El Nino has lag time before it starts to dissipate as well. It has controlled everything this winter despite times with favorable indices minus a - NAO The lower 48 is just flooded with PAC air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It really is shocking to me how every ensemble guidance was showing very cold temps this weekend but have completely disappeared. The El Nino is still raging strong and is still influencing everything with a dominating PAC flow.That's what leads me to believe that, even though it may look optimistic now for the near future, the pattern won't come around. We'll probably get cutters and storms without enough cold air. But I guess anything is still possible at this point. Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 0z euro say's what cutter lol (obviously beyond this event) The euro looks decent for lake enhancement on thurs night with about a 1/4"-1/3" LE in form of snow...The next event is basically a cold front with a little lake response after...The LR storm gives alot of over running precip south of us with a 1041mb high pressure near quebec..It will undoubtedly change at 12z but it looked better then it's previous run, overall, too me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 With more cold air, the current storm would've been quite the front-end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I cannot believe Indiana and Illinois have blizzard warnings for this storm, hype much. Good grief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Starting to think this winter is a lost cause, nothing but warm storms on the LR.. Bring on summer please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I cannot believe Indiana and Illinois have blizzard warnings for this storm, hype much. Good grief. Looks pretty close to blizzard criteria in Gary Indiana Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looks pretty close to blizzard criteria in Gary Indiana Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 34 degree blizzard with light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Pouring out currently...Snow pack still kicking, i'm amazed how well this "fake" snow has held up..It's going through a 2nd rainfall, back to back 50 degree days and another 40 degree day or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Thunderstorm and 50F in Masonville, NY on February 24th. Pretty much sums up this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Thunderstorm and 50F in Masonville, NY on February 24th. Pretty much sums up this winter! That is a nice looking squall line moving through central and eastern ny... Not just now, but for anytime of the yr honestly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The cold air held on way more than I expected today. Sat at 35 for most of the day and just recently bumped up to 37. So close to a legit front end thump as someone else stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 After staying in the 30's all day, the temp just shot into the 40's along with loud rumbles of thunder and torrential rain. At least there's some interesting weather I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Still plenty of time for this to change for the better..Potential for good over running snows for someone..(Verbatim, looks very good for parts of wny) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Still plenty of time for this to change for the better..Potential for good over running snows for someone..(Verbatim, looks very good for parts of wny) 1.gif Mean is pretty far west, not enough cold air here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 I take that back Wolfie, it looks better. The eastern ridge is not as strong with the next event as it was with this event. I would favor Detriot/Toronto locations with this one. I think a coastal transfer is more likely with a Miller B. A spread the wealth type system. but as already mentioned by Geos, it really is an awesome battlezone. It won't be boring, that's for sure. Storm after storm after storm, the only issue is enough cold air. Todays event: Next weeks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 We might get to see a quick burst of lake effect Friday night in the buffalo metro. I'm not expecting much, but I wouldn't be surprised if the band gets stronger than expected for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Next week's storm looks like it has alot of potential, but I'm gonna bet it will end up cutting like today's storm. My crocuses will be blooming soon if we get a few more days of sunshine and warm weather. Can't say I'm surprised though. Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z euro quicker with LP. Brings it from mid Ohio through WNY. 992. Keeping hvy snow (12"+) just north over Toronto, Detroit. These tracks are tough with El Niño. Typical correction to nw predicts warm sollution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z ggem was south of the gfs and euro, bringing the heaviest precip over eny/sne..The 18z gfs just jumped south and is pure awesomeness...Still about 6 days out, keeping the faith, for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 We don't need another rain/snow storm here in CNY it's already nothing but a big swamp out there now. Basements are flooding all over and small creeks and streams are extremely high right now. My yard looks like a small lake ontario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 it's snowing pretty good out there, we picked up 3" since yesterday.. days like this will sure be missed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Light to at times moderate snow most of the night..Eyeballing an inch or two..Continues to snow lightly.. City of Fulton is nearing triple digits.. 2015-16 Seasonal Snowfall 96.80 as of Feb. 20th November Total = 3.30 December Total = 4.10 January Total = 40.10 February Total = 49.30 http://www.tsforecast.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Don't have to worry about rain on the gfs or any precip at all lol 12z ukinator with a significant bump south as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 it's snowing pretty good out there, we picked up 3" since yesterday.. days like this will sure be missed! Yeah we picked up 1.6" to bring us over 70" on the year. Hoping for a big March and the synoptic pattern looks decent. I wouldn't sleep on the March 1st/2nd event and then another later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 Don't have to worry about rain on the gfs or any precip at all lol 12z ukinator with a significant bump south as well.. GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif GFS pretty close. GEM a little north Last Euro was pretty far NW and a Cutter. Will see what tonight brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 27, 2016 Author Share Posted February 27, 2016 You know its a bad year when Perrysburg is only at 137.7" through almost March 1st and Holiday Valley is at 111". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ukinator is pretty far southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Beautiful parachutes falling from the sky!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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