shaggy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Now its a 50/50 rain snow mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NC. once again. winning. precip is pulling away in SC already. michelle, how you moved here from ohio or wherever.. further north and can handle this crapfest is beyond me. stupid sc. screw it, im going to north dakota anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 im with you Shawn. North Dakota don't sound half bad. This was the one shot I thought the sc coast had and it let me down. On to the next one I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 im with you Shawn. North Dakota don't sound half bad. This was the one shot I thought the sc coast had and it let me down. On to the next one I suppose. I think you can at least end as a mix at worst. It sucks for us here around Columbia because if you had this low develop in the Gulf proper, and track across North Central Florida, we would have seen quite a big snow event. You guys might have too if cold air was situated like next week may bring (cold) This is the kind of storm that screws NC, Upstate SC and gets us here in the Deep South. Sometimes the coast as it pulls East and well away. Well, once again coastal NC looks to be winners if temps pan out for them. I really do understand (how he feels) how Lookout gets screwed in the NE corner of GA now. Even worse, Stormsfury gets screwed out of this. Minus some sleet and flakes mixed in... That is not fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm sure the NC folks will just say that's climo the struggle is real in the Deep South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm sure the NC folks will just say that's climo the struggle is real in the Deep South When it's all said and done, we see how this event that many of us spent tons of time on ended up. 6 members reading, 12 guests. Pathetic how much time I dedicate to watching these "threats". I absolutely must quit being a model chaser. I am going the Widre way.. he never comes around anymore until an event looks imminent. He has the right idea. Read the local forecast discussions and see if it warrants wasting time coming and talking about it in the very short term. /meltdownensuing.i.hope.i.will.be.okay.mentally.and.physically. On that note, I retire.. until there is an actual chance outside the inner weenie of myself for the Midlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Wow the models really nailed the be extent of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That's a Rap. I am sure this is a nice little snowstorm 2000ft up, however, down at the surface, where we live, 80/20 RN/IP mix, and that is generous. I see that near term mlguidance has returned to reality this morning and now showing no accumulations. Hopefully the rain gets out of here quicker than forecasted as the ground is very saturated from our 5" this past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Climo usually wins out. Tough to bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yeah Chris so close, here though its almost 50/50 IP in it and temp on my porch is 35, thought that would have been enough to get the flakes to the surface......still enough IP falling that the roofs are showing it in the corners.....I do see a stray flake every now and again as well. I bet it is snowing its ass off 1000 ft up for sure..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NC. once again. winning. I don't think there's any true winners with this set up, unless a mix here and there is considered a win. I was really rooting for you guys, y'all are more than over due! Them pesky lake lows always mess it up, if a HP was there instead would have been a whole other ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 When it's all said and done, we see how this event that many of us spent tons of time on ended up. 6 members reading, 12 guests. Pathetic how much time I dedicate to watching these "threats". I absolutely must quit being a model chaser. I am going the Widre way.. he never comes around anymore until an event looks imminent. He has the right idea. Read the local forecast discussions and see if it warrants wasting time coming and talking about it in the very short term. /meltdownensuing.i.hope.i.will.be.okay.mentally.and.physically. On that note, I retire.. until there is an actual chance outside the inner weenie of myself for the Midlands. This is just part of the hobby. We knew this was not a good setup and it would have taken some perfect timing; along with sufficient temps at all levels. But there was always a chance for somebody to score. If that had happened we would have tracked that outcome. All you can do now is move on to the next potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Had a mix earlier this morning, then some light rain, now almost 100% sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 ugh 34.4 on my porch now still 60/40 rain sleet mix and a mangled flake or graupel thrown in.....850 warm nose there on soundings crushing us lol......RAP soundings shows it gone by 10 or so so we shall see what happens Now 3 hrs from now on latest RAP run would think the snow makes it to the ground with this sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My black construction paper is just wet...again Best I got was slop for 3 minutes.....imagine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My black construction paper is just wet...again Best I got was slop for 3 minutes.....imagine that sucks, I just need to see the ground covered here once, and its not happening but we are soooo close lol....damn warm nose....34 and dumping sleet/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 From ILM at 6:30 Sunday morning: THE UPPER JET DYNAMICS AND THE POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF WILLCOMBINE FORCES TO PRODUCE A MONSTER COASTAL LOW THAT WILL RAPIDLYDEEPEN FROM AROUND 1005 MB ATTM...TO THE 980S MB BY THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 My black construction paper is just wet...again Best I got was slop for 3 minutes.....imagine that About the same here so at-least we all got screwed together. A little ip accumulation in the eves, that's about it. Still a few pellets mixing in and one heck of a melt going on over the coastal plain this morning per radar. We got the NW trend inside of 48hrs and meaningful qpf made it to us, temps on the other hand, yeah, they trended not in our favor, go figure. May be one of those years where we go without measurable snow here. I am all in for the clipper, at this point we don't have anything to lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 When it's all said and done, we see how this event that many of us spent tons of time on ended up. 6 members reading, 12 guests. Pathetic how much time I dedicate to watching these "threats". I absolutely must quit being a model chaser. I am going the Widre way.. he never comes around anymore until an event looks imminent. He has the right idea. Read the local forecast discussions and see if it warrants wasting time coming and talking about it in the very short term. /meltdownensuing.i.hope.i.will.be.okay.mentally.and.physically. On that note, I retire.. until there is an actual chance outside the inner weenie of myself for the Midlands. See you in 6-7 days to talk about the crushing that's coming 12-16th! Here in subsidence land, mid level clouds and 29, what might have been!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Mostly sleet here now (after 50/50 rain/sleet mix), enough to cover the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 CC radar is starting to look weird just east of Raleigh. Snow? Sleet? Slop? Any ground reports? http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-0-24 Wouldn't be surprised is this small area around Wilson, NC flipped over to heavy snow within the hour. Heaviest axis of precip has drifted north some into slightly colder air. Might be able to bring snow down to ground level... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 CC radar is starting to look weird just east of Raleigh. Snow? Sleet? Slop? Any ground reports? http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-0-24 Wouldn't be surpised is this small area flipped over to heavy snow within the hour. Heaviest axis of precip has drifted north some into slightly colder air. Might be able to bring snow down to ground level... There is a tiny warm nose that is fading over most of this area at 850, RAP shows it gone in the next few hrs, if that is the case and the precip holds up you may be right.... temp on my porch is 33.8 if we flipped to snow I think surface temps would get to 32 during the snow at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 CC radar is starting to look weird just east of Raleigh. Snow? Sleet? Slop? Any ground reports? http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RAX-N0C-0-24 Wouldn't be surprised is this small area around Wilson, NC flipped over to heavy snow within the hour. Heaviest axis of precip has drifted north some into slightly colder air. Might be able to bring snow down to ground level... I'm about 5 miles south of Wilson, right now I'd say it's 20% rain, 80% sleet with occasional flakes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Never mind. Big flakes definitely starting to mix in more now, hardly any sleet is pinging the stove vent now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Not much of a meteorologist, but I can tell you whats falling from the sky in eastern Johnston County 8 miles west of I-95. 60/40 Mix of Sleet and Cold Rain, sleet being the dominate force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 I'm about 5 miles south of Wilson, right now I'd say it's 20% rain, 80% sleet with occasional flakes in. So you are right under that, thanks for the report Veronica. Based on CC, that looks to be the best area atm. I can report the opposite, 80/20, generous, with no dendrites mixing in :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Never mind. Big flakes definitely starting to mix in more now, hardly any sleet is pinging the stove vent now. Awesome, you might be in a for a surprise over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 And now back to mostly sleet. What a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sleet accumulating on decks, railings and car top. Haven't seen any flakes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stump Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sleet accumulating on decks, railings and car top. Haven't seen any flakes yet. Plenty accumulating here also in flowerbeds, yard, and rooftop crevices. Wish it would flip to full snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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