Hugo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 May be creeping up on tropical storm force gusts in the Myrtle beach area. I'm still holding on to the dynamic cooling possibly giving us some flakes ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY. * WINDS...A STRENGTHENING COASTAL STORM WILL MOVE BY THE COAST DURING SUNDAY RESULTING IN NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ILM suggested earlier that if it bombs (which seems incresingly likely), there wouldn't be a problem bringing down a bunch of cold air and that should be good for an accumulating event down toward MYR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 A lot of the information in the wall of AFDs above is over 12 hours old. RAH's latest related to this storm only... THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE THE TRACK OF THESURFACE LOW AND NORTHWEST EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH THE 12Z GFS STILLA WESTERN OUTLIER AND THE ECMWF CURIOUSLY WEAKER AND A LITTLEFURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. THE ECMWF IS ALSOTHE DRIEST MODEL WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THESOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS A FAIRLYEXTREME OUTLIER SHOWING OVER A HALF INCH AS FAR NORTH AS JOHNSTONCOUNTY. THE BEST SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE 0.2" TO 0.4" SOUTH AND EASTOF A LINE FROM LAURINBURG TO WILSON. GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THIS WILLFALL AS RAIN AND THE DURATION OF A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL BELIMITED TO HEAVIER POCKETS OF PRECIP.... OUR THINKING IS THATACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TOGRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES...THOUGH AN ISOLATED AREA WITH SLIGHTLYENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS IS POSSIBLY. NO ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED ATTHIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Maybe I can get some upslope enhancement off the Uwharrie mtn range, lol. Great whaling and Nash ing of teeth here but it'll be what it is. Look at brightside for me and James well get to look to our west again tuesday and have the same expierence watching the mtns get hammered with 36 straight hours of upslope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I was wondering if that was a possibility despite the warm surface temps. Temps are cold in the mid levels and dry in the low levels. I've seen it before with surface temps like this. Back in the 90s after reaching a high in the freaking upper 50s early in the afternoon, it started sleeting at around 4pm with a temp around 49/50 and it started to snow by around 7 or 8..and over all got 3 or 4 inches that night. I don't know what the dewpoints were but they had to be pretty dang low as temps went from 49/50 to the upper 30s in a couple of hours. I remember it well because I had never seen sleet with temps that warm before and was absolutely amazed by it. To this day i still haven't seen it repeated...which is why i've been watching those showers just to the south of me wondering if it was possible...so am really happy to see you report it. I've seen it sleet around 50 degrees several times growing up. Heck...I've seen it snow (and stick) at 40 ILM suggested earlier that if it bombs (which seems incresingly likely), there wouldn't be a problem bringing down a bunch of cold air and that should be good for an accumulating event down toward MYR. I've been saying all along that if I lived from FLO to MYR I'd be a little excited at the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just out from rah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 WPC chance of 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Just out from rah Good map to let me make a quick point for my Western Midlands friends... and possibly closer to the Upstate.. See the squares closer to the SC coast on that map wake4est posted? You want the ones on the Western side of the black track to verify. I see 7-8 of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5statewx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Also, WPC Worst Case 95 Percentile map has a smidgen of 12-15" at the NC VA border haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 RAH going conservative compared to the models and WPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I love these systems, really we wont know who/where if any will see any appreciable snow, I prefer these setups to the dreaded big total forecast....I would rather them have to issue a late winter storm warning than have one out for 24 hrs that doesnt verify..... DP is 23 here lowest its been so far this week temp is 46 , clouds a high and very scattered if we can get some good cooling and get lower than our forecasted low of 33 that would make me happy...the cold air supply is pretty meh but its not horrible either....it could be just enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I modified this WPC map with low track/clusters from 12z to showcase where the low needs to be to get better precipitation inland, especially for SC. I have no idea what those pink tracks are/model. This is no longer an official product since I have made changes to it. Circled in red are the low positions that could very well work better for us: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 RAH going conservative compared to the models and WPC.what are the models showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Woah there girl. Calm down. Gotta love the trends. I could easily see this turning out to be one of those systems where the models just keep correcting NW even during the event and even then they don't pull NW enough. I have seen that with a few big systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Woah there girl. Calm down. image.png Gotta love the trends. I could easily see this turning out to be one of those systems where the models just keep correcting NW even during the event and even then they don't pull NW enough. I have seen that with a few big systems. That's what I am thinking, too. I just don't think the precip is going to hit a wall and stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Cloudy currently after a light sprinkle down here. Right now, the skies have that snow look to it. Haven't seen it like this in some time. The atmosphere just has that feel to it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 That's what I am thinking, too. I just don't think the precip is going to hit a wall and stop. It's not the precipitation hitting a brick wall. It's the overall motion of the storm and it pulling away. Need closer to the coast track. Nobody knows the exact track this is going to take, it hasn't even gotten going yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Based off of the latest NAM and GFS, précis keeps creeping NW but areas with decent precip just don't have the 850s to support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 It's not the precipitation hitting a brick wall. It's the overall motion of the storm and it pulling away. Need closer to the coast track. Nobody knows the exact track this is going to take, it hasn't even gotten going yet. Yeah, that is what I meant. Just think the track is going to come further northwest as it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 For brick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18z RGEM, this is the best panel based on thickness, which is very concerning as this model usually has a pretty good handle on the thermal profile in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm really curious to see how west do you think the precip is gonna be? Probabuy to the Durham and Wake line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 For brick... In other words, we don't really know so we will just have to wait and leave all options on the table. Pretty much what I think, but just feeling more.optimistic about it than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Alan's call map is out. Can't post it for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 10m10 minutes ago Here are my thoughts as of now. seems to be totally dependent on dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 latest hrrr is all i needed to see here near the airport. precip will be close but not gonna make it. congrats faytteville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 This one looKS good.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016020512&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=195&xpos=0&ypos=195&xpos=0&ypos=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 This one looKS good. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=wrf-nmm®ion=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016020512&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=195&xpos=0&ypos=195&xpos=0&ypos=19 Looks like lots of precip for the RDU area. Curious why there's more rain though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Not sure how far west the precip will get. at this point we just look at the radar. Current temp is 38.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Well, looking at the 22z 0hr RAP, there is still a cutoff over Northern Alabama. Was supposed to be opened by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Earlier I post the first image. I said then that would be SLP popping of JAX, FL . Well from then to now that cluster has been in the same area. Last couple frames on Radar show moisture coming in around that location. Still the SLP. But if you follow that area there is a line that appears off the coast south of the rain bands .Then it starts filling in. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php Thats the surface trough axis or the path of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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