Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Seeing a couple reports of ip down around Lumberton and Whiteville over the past 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Seeing a couple reports of ip down around Lunberton and Whiteville over the past 30 minutes Lots of reports of sleet around Florence, Dillon, Marion, Darlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Sleet still falling in south of Myrtle beach as well. Murrels inlet area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 RAH updated AFD... * I can't get the NOAA page to load on any browsers, so had to copy/paste from the Weathebot... unable to highlight the 'important stuff', but they don't sound too optimistic.* BASED ON OBSERVED TRENDS SINCE 21Z...STARTING TO HAVE MORECONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE MUCH WETTER GFS SOLUTION. THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIP WILL CROSS INTO SOUTHERN NC PRIOR TOMIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE BONE DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...EXPECT THIS BATCH OFPRECIP TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE SURFACE...AND GO MORE TOWARDMOISTENING THE LOWER LAYERS.THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CAUSE AN AREA OF LOWPRESSURE...ANALYZED AT 02Z OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST...TOSTRENGTHEN AND LIFT NEWD. STILL APPEARS THAT THIS SFC LOW WILLREMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LIMIT THE WINTRY THREAT FOR CENTRALNC. IN ADDITION...WHILE LOW LEVEL NLY FLOW WILL INCREASE INCONJUNCTION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE...THE NLY FLOW WILL NOTADVECT/SUPPLEMENT A FRESH BATCH OF COLD AIR INTO CENTRAL NC.THUS...IN ORDER TO GET WINTRY PRECIPITATION...WILL NEED TO DEPENDUPON: 1.) EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER TO COOL TEMPSTO AT OR BELOW FREEZING; 2.) INCREASE PRECIP RATES.WITH SFC WET BULB TEMPS CURRENTLY ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNCOUNTIES...THIS MECHANISM WILL DO LITTLE TO CHANGE PRECIP TO AWINTRY CHARACTER. THUS..WILL NEED TO DEPEND UPON ENHANCED PRECIPRATES TO BRING WINTRY PRECIP TO THE SURFACE. WITH THE BEST LIFTPROJECTED TO BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-95...THIS MECHANISM MAY BEREALIZED OVER OUR FAR SE-EASTERN COUNTIES. PER PARTIAL THICKNESSESAND MODEL SOUNDING DEPICTION...EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME MIXEDWITH SNOW. DURING TIMES OF MODERATE-BRIEFLY HEAVY PRECIPRATES...COULD SEE P-TYPE BECOME MORE SNOW THAN RAIN WITH SOMEACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. WITH SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ANDANTECEDENT GROUND TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM (MID 40S-NEAR 50)...EXPECTANY SNOW/SLUSH THAT ACCUMULATES TO MELT RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THUSEXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BE A RELATIVELY NON-EVENT WITH LITTLE/NOIMPACT TO TRAVEL. ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE A HALF INCH OR LESS.AT THIS TIME...APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX TO OCCUR BETWEEN08Z-14Z....AND MAINLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 1...ANDMORE SO ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. AFTER 14Z...PRECIP RATES WILL BEDECREASING...LIMITING WINTRY MIX. AS THE AIR MASS WARMSDIURNALLY...EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME ALL RAIN BY MID DAY-EARLYAFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 2/6/16, 21:21 Sunday afternoon, extratropical cyclone off Carolina coast will have sustained hurricane force winds pic.twitter.com/W4jI3m8z4u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The 00z GFS basically has a non-event. It's too warm where there is precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 2/6/16, 21:24 "Warm-core seclusion" is end result of extreme extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This one is historically strong pic.twitter.com/8IJXkJ8yEV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Heavy rain here and 43 in Charleston. Wunderground radar showing snow in Asheboro, NC and west of Lake Norman. I've seen some stray snowflakes in the car headlights here in the past 15 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Hope you guys get something nice. I think I am about to bow out for my area and maybe even Columbia. NAM might be too cold and it looks to definitely be too wet here. GFS makes more sense. I have a lot of soul searching to do. I need to learn to trust the Euro/UKMet combo versus all this other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 2/6/16, 21:24 "Warm-core seclusion" is end result of extreme extratropical cyclone lifecycle. This one is historically strong pic.twitter.com/8IJXkJ8yEV That is some impressive stuff! That looks better than most hurricanes in the Atlantic and it's February ! Now, if we could get one like this going in the gulf in the next week or two! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Just gotta laugh sometimes. Cat 1 hurricane in the dead of winter in the prime spot and nada. Hopefully someone in the coastal plain can salvage a quick thump. LUCKILY next weekend looks very promising and the upslope region is gonna get thumped over the first part of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Melting layer really starting to light up on radar from Lumberton down to Andrews SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Melting layer really starting to light up on radar from Lumberton down to Andrews SC. Come on RAP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 That rap verefies the Greenville bunch is gonna have some pretty pics to post. You guys better grab it, clocks ticking on all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Now casting and radar time! Looks like moisture is moving NNE and plenty of precip looks to make it to RAH proper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 The snake handling Rev is about to get under some big dbz's the jon would be next I think he's in buies creek. Hopefully their awake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 WECT meteorologist Lauren Rautenkranz: Weather spotters report heavy sleet with a light dusting in northern Robeson Co. off Chime Dr, St Pauls #ncwx #scwx #wectwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Heavy sleet pinging off cars in Hope Mills, just south of FAY, at 11 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 @downeast, it flips us tomorrow morning-mid day as that heavier band comes through. Thickness on my est is 1305/1545 here at PGV, wintry mix per the nomogram Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 First time Myrtle beach/Conway has had a possibility of snow in the forcast via NWS Sunday Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 11am. High near 43. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 yep I am on the RAP train lol......of course its wrong but still.....I can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Who's gonna start the obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Who's gonna start the obs thread? This is the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Low is good to go, strengthening. Good luck everyone I-95 east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Who's gonna start the obs thread? They have decided to keep it one big thread this time around. I asked yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 They have decided to keep it one big thread this time around. I asked yesterday. Thanks, must have missed that...would love a N/NW trend...all we have here now is cold and the crisp electric 'snowy' feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hrrr trying hard to throw precip back towards rdu tomorrow morning, eastern nc looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) 2/6/16, 21:18 Explosive cyclone development off Carolina coast 1002 mb: 07/12z 969 mb: 07/21z 33 mb in 9-hrs at 32°N latitude pic.twitter.com/XMF0LRUrPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 hrrr trying hard to throw precip back towards rdu tomorrow morning, eastern nc looks good. That looks great and would love for the RAP totals to be correct but man experience tells me to expect rain and hope for better. Very few times does it work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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