Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You guys get smoked in CAE. Wow. Definitely a snow sounding at hr 24. BL is no issue. Looks like maybe light rain and/or sleet to start, but then once you wet bulb and dynamics take over, it goes pretty isothermal and you hammer. CAE, hr 24 (06z NAM): Looks like a wet snow sounding up here, as well (though we don't get a lot of precip, but it's not nil, either). Sadly, it's all alone with the ARPEGE. No Euro or GFS support is bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I guess you could say there were some "slight" changes on the NAM between the 00z and 06z runs, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 4KM Hi-Res NAM doesn't look nearly the same, again. Looks further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Sadly, it's all alone with the ARPEGE. No Euro or GFS support is bad. True, true. Perhaps some data was ingested for the 06z runs that will show up in subsequent model runs. Or maybe the NAM is just NAM'ing because that's what it does. We'll see soon enough. An entertaining run, in any case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Wow, horry county has a shield around it for the snow but I can drive south an hour and find 6 inches in Georgetown potentially. I'd be good with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Significant shift with the Hi-Res NAM from 00z to 06z, as well. Hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 NC: I'm on the very northeastern tip of that little tongue of snow in eastern nc. If I'm reading it right its got me at 2-3 inches but more to my southwest. Really not expecting anything with this one so its either gonna bust in my favor and I get surprised or its gonna be SC's turn for a snow and I'm good with that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 KILM AFD && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...ALL EYES REMAIN ON THE SYSTEM THAT WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PERIOD BEINGS. SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GOMEX WILL INDUCE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST...PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP MOISTURE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETTING WILL HELP DEEPEN THE LOW AND PROVIDE DYNAMICS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FALLING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE DROPS WITH RESPECT TO THE TYPE OF PRECIP EXPECTED DURING THE EVENT. CURRENTLY ALL BUT THE COLDEST OF THE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A RAIN/SNOW EVENT FOR THE AREA WITH POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW AS IT ENDS ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS HOWEVER DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT DYNAMICAL PROCESSES THAT CAN CONTRIBUTE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COOLING AS A LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AS STRONG UPWARD MOTION WITH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE PRESENT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING ABOVE ROUGHLY THE 850MB LEVEL (AGAIN DISCOUNTING THE COLDEST OUTLIER). GIVEN THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE SENSITIVITY OF THE P TYPE FORECAST TO MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE LOWS TRACK DO NOT PLAN TO ALTER THE INHERITED FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED ON A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR INLAND AREAS SUN MORNING TURNING TO ALL RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT MUST AGAIN BE MENTIONED THAT CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NO LESS OF A CHALLENGE. BRIEF PERIOD OF DRYING LATE SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON COMES TO AN END AS SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT COMBO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE ALSO HAS PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. COLD AIR WILL AGAIN BE THE ISSUE BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING TEMPS A BIT COOLER AND THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE STRONG DYNAMICS. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BELOW 850 MB. SO WHILE THERE IS ARGUABLY A BETTER CHANCE AT GETTING SNOW TO FALL WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. HAVE MAINTAINED INHERITED CHC POP FOR LATE MON AND MON NIGHT BUT WHETHER PRECIP ENDS UP RAIN...RAIN/SNOW MIX...OR EVEN ALL SNOW THE QUANTITY THAT REACHES THE SURFACE WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE FOR MOST AREAS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 KCAE updated recently with the following: EXAMINATION OF THE THERMAL PROFILES THROUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS ANDTIME HEIGHTS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOWMIXING WITH RAIN OR EVEN TURNING TO ALL SNOW IF PRECIPITATION ISHEAVY ENOUGH ACCOUNTING FOR DIABATIC COOLING EFFECTS. THE MOSTLIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AROUND 09Z-15Z.THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH AREA TO SUPPORTWINTER PRECIP AND THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLDAIR AND BRINGING MUCH MORE MOISTURE AND QPF OVER THE REGIONCOMPARED TO THE REST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND WASCONSIDERED THE OUTLIER...THOUGH IF THAT SOLUTION VERIFIES WE COULDSEE A WINTER EVENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA AND ANALOGGUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IN A WINTER EVENTWITH IMPACTS OCCURRING. WPC ALSO NOT CARRYING ACCUMULATING SNOWOVER OUR AREA WITH THIS EVENT. WILL CARRY A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOWACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS BUT NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACCUMULATIONAS SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND SOIL/ROAD TEMPSWILL BE QUITE WARM AS WELL MINIMIZING IMPACTS...UNLESSPRECIPITATION IS FALLING AT A VERY HIGH RATE. SO OVERALL...LOWCONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL PRECIP TYPE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY ASIT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW ENDSUP TRACKING BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A CONSERVATIVE LOWIMPACT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUTREMAIN BELOW NORMAL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN MIDLANDS WHEREPRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And here comes the 06z GFS - Cuts off at 500mb over East AL, Georgia vs late cutoff off shore on 00z. - Precip shield further into interior SC. - Not gonna get much done but it was a change within just 6 hours of it's last run. West shift. More moisture into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And here comes the 06z GFS - Cuts off at 500mb over East AL, Georgia vs late cutoff off shore on 00z. - Precip shield further into interior SC. - Not gonna get much done but it was a change within just 6 hours of it's last run. West shift. More moisture into NC. The trough went negative a little faster and the ULL actually closed off, unlike the 00z run. Not that far off the 06z NAM, TBH. We'll see what tomorrow's runs do. Could be quite interesting for someone (CAE area, perhaps). The 06z runs are really taking any significant coastal snow off the table (for now, anyways) with the NW trend with the surface low and mid-level temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The trough went negative a little faster and the ULL actually closed off, unlike the 00z run. Not that far off the 06z NAM, TBH. We'll see what tomorrow's runs do. Could be quite interesting for someone (CAE area, perhaps). The 06z runs are really taking any significant coastal snow off the table (for now, anyways) with the NW trend with the surface low and mid-level temperatures. There could be only a narrow strip of snow that develops with this storm. It's going to be impossible to know who scores until the event occurs. On one point you want to be under some good returns but another you want to be on the west edge; whereas again if your not under good returns (west edge) you'll probably only get rain. Equal chances of huge bust(nobody gets snow) and a big hit for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good morning all. I know it's late in the game to look at ensembles, but I still like to do it to notice any last minute trends. The 6z GEFS was a major shift north and west into NC. SE Wake (Cold Rain) is getting .5" qpf. Here are the 0z and 6z for comparison: 0z And 6z (BOOM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good morning all. I know it's late in the game to look at ensembles, but I still like to do it to notice any last minute trends. The 6z GEFS was a major shift north and west into NC. SE Wake (Cold Rain) is getting .5" qpf. Here are the 0z and 6z for comparison: 0z And 6z (BOOM) With that shift of precip inland, the temps also increased for coastal areas. It very well could be somebody like CR or someone in the western coastal plains that score a nice hit. Here's RAH's discussion from last night. I think it's great wording that allows them to back down or ramp up some today. .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY... MODELS ARE IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE COASTAL STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY SUNDAY OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE SYSTEM AT THE CURRENT TIME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST FAR ENOUGH SE OF THE REGION THAT IT WOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. TRENDS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. WE WILL START THAT TREND AS WELL WHICH WILL INDICATE EVEN MORE OF A GRADIENT FROM NIL POP TO LIKELY POP FROM NW TO SE AND ALSO LOWER THE POP SOMEWHAT ALL AREAS EXCEPT FROM FAY TO GSB AND SE. PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE FOR A NARROW WINDOW ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SE ZONES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEANS THAT SUGGEST A 50/50 CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH VERY VERY LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. THE WEB BULB FORECASTS SUPPORT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32 IN THE SE... BUT FALL TO 32 OR BELOW ELSEWHERE (28-32). WE WILL TREND AGAIN TOWARD SOME LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN THE FAR SE LATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE RAIN MAY BE MIXED WITH SOME SNOW BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. QPF SHOULD BE 0.2 OR LESS IN OUR FAR SE... WITH TRACE POSSIBLE TO KSOP TO KRDU TO KRWI ON THE NW EDGE OF THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION. THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY. A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM THE LIKELY... TO CHANCE... TO SLIGHT CHANCE... TO NIL POP... WILL EXIST FROM KFAY TO KRDU... WITH NIL POP WEST AND NORTH OF RDU FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE WEST WHERE SOME FILTERED SUN IS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S WESTERN PIEDMONT... TO LOWER 40S IN THE SE AROUND FAY TO GSB. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Here's the first observation: current back yard temp is 24.3 degrees. Had a good hard freeze last night that cooled the surface down from the past few days of warmth. Foretasted high today is 50 but the current lows still helps. **I think areas north and west of Raleigh don't have much of a chance; but I'm always hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 From CAE(again great wording at this point): HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC521 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016GAZ077-SCZ035-041-071030-BURKE-BARNWELL-BAMBERG-521 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINAAND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINING WITH COLDTEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OR CHANGE TO ABRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW LATE TONIGHT..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMBINING WITH COLDTEMPERATURES MAY LEAD TO SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN OR CHANGE TO ABRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 Good morning all. I know it's late in the game to look at ensembles, but I still like to do it to notice any last minute trends. The 6z GEFS was a major shift north and west into NC. SE Wake (Cold Rain) is getting .5" qpf. Here are the 0z and 6z for comparison: 0z And 6z (BOOM) Maybe nothing will happen here. But you can't deny the possibility with the north and west trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The last WPC map shows roughly a 20-30% chance for Wake County to get 2 inches over the 72 hour period from now to Monday.. Same percentage for 1 inch over 24 hour period.. Not sure I would go that high, based on what I'm seeing...but I guess 20-30% isn't that high to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Really feel this will be a rain turning over to some fat flakes at the end scenario for most. NAM needs some support to feel more confident. 12z suite will be important for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 SREF's are way west.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I really like that the short range hires models are trending west and wetter as they may have a better handle on the precip shield. Still like the low country to cae for snow but the immediate coasts should be wary. I have been burned many times in charleston with the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 From a purely selfish mode, I'm loving the trend. Having trouble reconciling the soundings with snow. We're close near FAY, but not a true snow look. Is the assumption that heavier precip will pull enough cold down to make the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 From a purely selfish mode, I'm loving the trend. Having trouble reconciling the soundings with snow. We're close near FAY, but not a true snow look. Is the assumption that heavier precip will pull enough cold down to make the difference?I think you're in a good spot. Rates will be key but at least the flakes will be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Latest WPC snowfall probs just posted by Brad p on Twitter. Promising for central nc/sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 WPC probability area continues to expand. It would be nice to see everyone from Statesboro to the Delmarva to cash in. But that has the look of a prototypical I-95 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Thru 15 32k nam has plenty of precip in central sc and nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Column isn't as moist this run at KCLT so I wouldn't be surprised to see it go east a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Allan offered this from the SREF this morning on Twitter.... the model's probability of 24-hr snow total greater than 4 inches. 30-50% along the I-95 corridor. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 06z GEFS members are NW as well, the big dogs are now all located over SE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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