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Feb 7 Winter Storm


Brick Tamland

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All the local mets in Charleston area going conservative, as expected. Bill Walsh says rain will mix with wet snow, especially inland, Sunday morning.

One of the local models actually showing some snow on side east of Raleigh Sunday. Rob Fowler says it could turn over to a wet snow or wet mix.

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I love it, but earlier Jon posted verification scores. The GGEM is at the bottom of the pack. Not that it's not right or anything, just want to temper expectations.

Yeah, very true, but interesting. Gets accumulating snow out this way. RDU to CAE gets a nice hit. Woah, Nelly. Time to see how the other modeling comes in.

To be clear, I've only seen the grainy Meteocentre maps so far, so if could be too warm for those areas for all I know.

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Looking at this synoptically; the cold air just does not look to be there, except for transient marginal situations, for areas south of the mid Atlantic. We need a cold high pressure in place in the vicinity of New York state. Instead, we have the dreaded Great Lakes low.

 

The 4K NAM says this thing starts to get organized in our area where granted rates may allow some areas to get wet snow briefly (but surface temps will be above freezing) and then goes on to maul the coastal mid Atlantic and southern coastal New England. Look at this frame:

 

nam4km_ref_frzn_eus_19.png

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If you are talking about the Meteociel.fr maps (or another site that uses that color scheme), then that is correct.

 

Well, then.  Here.  You might enjoy this ridiculous model run.  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=2&carte=2  it even hits Macon, GA.

 

I found this alternate source (meteociel) for the ARPEGE earlier and it's faster than the other one I found and Meteocentre.  I wish it had total precipitation accumulation though.

 

 

Looking at the 00z ARPEGE on these poop maps, it looks like the comma just sits on SC/NC and slowly pulls away.  If this model verifies, I will always call it "King Frenchie".

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Well, then.  Here.  You might enjoy this ridiculous model run.  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php?ech=27&code=0&mode=2&carte=2  it even hits Macon, GA.

 

I found this alternate source (meteociel) for the ARPEGE earlier and it's faster than the other one I found and Meteocentre.  I wish it had total precipitation accumulation though.

 

Oh, nice, I did not realize they had that model on there, as well.  Yeah, that site usually gets the Canadian and other models out much faster than Meteocentre, even though the maps usually suck.

 

Anyways, looks like the ARPEGE largely held its course.  Quite interesting.  It's either on to something or going down with the ship.  It's definitely been the most consistent model over the last 24-36 hours.

 

I have no idea what its verification scores are like, though.  I think someone mentioned earlier that it was a 4d var model, though?

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Oh, nice, I did not realize they had that model on there, as well.  Yeah, that site usually gets the Canadian and other models out much faster than Meteocentre, even though the maps usually suck.

 

Anyways, looks like the ARPEGE largely held its course.  Quite interesting.  It's either on to something or going down with the ship.  It's definitely been the most consistent model over the last 24-36 hours.

 

I have no idea what its verification scores are like, though.  I think someone mentioned earlier that it was a 4d var model, though?

 

Yeah what I read is it was 4dVar and also has a lot of input from the ECMWF guys.  They work together with data assimilation and all that kind of good stuff.  Ryan has the European areas of it on WXBell.  I looked around, and it seems kind of hard to find the raw data files in shorter than 24 hour increments for Global.  I wonder if he has the same issue, since it's not on his site for North America.

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06z NAM sure is trying to come West.  Precipitation further inland, slower.

 

- Precipitation really ramped up versus 0z into interior SC.  This looks like it should be a good run for the Midlands.

- On the fast maps, looks like two areas of lower pressure.  One very close to the coast, one South and further away.

- Coast seems very warm for snow this run at 850mb.
- The "two low pressures" consolidate into one sprawled out 1008.

- Barring temperature problems, just West of Columbia, SC still looking great.  Charlotte possibly too!

- Charlotte getting much more appreciable precipitation.  Looks like 850s cold enough RIGHT to your East.

- Precipitation trying to get into North-Central NC.

- NE SC getting crushed under massive precipitation, but too warm.  Sumter county bulls-eye?

- Just West of Columbia, SC is getting rocked this run.

- Heavy precipitation just pivoting it looks. Sticking it to the West of Columbia, SC.  Still snow in Charlotte, CAE.

 

Guys, this is what we want to see.  Slow, crazy.  Snow map might be QUITE interesting here soon.  King ARPEGE?

 

- Through 36 hours, absolute crush-job for South Carolina, Charlotte lighter, but not bad.

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The wpc day 2 snowfall possibilities has a10% hatch for 4 inches starting in central eastern NC running up the east coast. Weird map that doesn't seem to fit the modeling.

day2_psnow_gt_04.gif

The SREFs really try to take the storm up the east coast, especially the most recent 03z run. I think those maps are either generated by the SREFs or heavily weighted towards them.

Another Boston surprise might be in store.

 

Here is the 24-hr 03z SREF QPF at hr 54, to illustrate this:

 

2rf8toz.gif

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Snow maps coming soon.  What a run.

 

You guys get smoked in CAE.  Wow.  Definitely a snow sounding at hr 24.  BL is no issue.  Looks like maybe light rain and/or sleet to start, but then once you wet bulb and dynamics take over, it goes pretty isothermal and you hammer.

 

CAE, hr 24 (06z NAM):

 

55sfg7.gif

 

Looks like a wet snow sounding up here, as well (though we don't get a lot of precip, but it's not nil, either).

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