Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,987
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dankles
    Newest Member
    Dankles
    Joined

Storm and Mood Snow Feb 8-11


DotRat_Wx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

i see no HEAT coming, if you think Ninoheater is still in effect I'd like to see the proof. Isotherm nailed it 

 

For all of New England or just your backyard? Put down the birthday beer. This is a borderline record warmest all time winter with no SSW or -NAO. You are going to have many areas come close to or possibly break all time low snow in New England. Coastal areas are doing much better. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For all of New England or just your backyard? Put down the birthday beer. This is a borderline record warmest all time winter with no SSW or -NAO. You are going to have many areas come close to or possibly break all time low snow in New England. Coastal areas are doing much better. 

 

Better than '97-'98 on the coast and a chunk of CT/RI....easily worse everywhere else so far.

 

 

We'll see how the next month plays out though...lot of time left. '98 was pretty pathetic after mid-January, so we'll be catching up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Better than '97-'98 on the coast and a chunk of CT/RI....easily worse everywhere else so far.

 

 

We'll see how the next month plays out though...lot of time left. '98 was pretty pathetic after mid-January, so we'll be catching up.

 

It's definitely better on the coast as far as snow goes. But a little perspective is needed too. So far so good with the thoughts of more of a Feb and Mar deal, as well as the Pacific really driving the bus. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For all of New England or just your backyard? Put down the birthday beer. This is a borderline record warmest all time winter with no SSW or -NAO. You are going to have many areas come close to or possibly break all time low snow in New England. Coastal areas are doing much better. 

 

 

 

Disagree. By all metrics this is an impressive SSW with 60-90N temperatures peaking in the top 10 of 17 SSW events in the Jan-Feb period. The technical 'major' classification won't be attained due to 60N/10hpa non reversal, but 90% of the 60-90N 1-10hpa region has reversed in the zonal mean winds.

 

Data courtesy of 'Interitus' from another forum. The peak 60-90N temperatures will likely be around 240K which still puts this SSW above at least half of the events in the Jan/Feb period:

 

"From the MERRA data, for SSW in January & February, the peak in average 60-90°N 10mb polar cap temperature is 235.08 K (-37.92°C) occurring on day of reversal.

The most recent available GEOS 60-90°N 10mb forecast for 08/02 is 241.79 K (-31.21°C), warmer than 12 of 17 SSW and 7th warmest Jan/Feb period behind (max dates):

23/01/09 - 251.83 K - SSW (as per 60°N 10mb wind)

29/02/80 - 247.42 K - SSW

27/02/99 - 243.41 K - SSW

05/02/81 - 243.16 K - NO SSW (+0.6 m/s)

02/01/85 - 242.92 K - SSW

30/01/95 - 242.83 K - SSW (-0.02 m/s!)"

 

 

Furthermore, the upcoming arctic outbreak is a near instantaneous coupling response to the PV displacement and extension of cyclonic energy southwestward into the United States.

 

Per the literature, the upcoming pattern both short and medium/long term is a fairly classic post-displacement look with higher than normal geopotential heights in the PNA, EPO, and AO domains, while the NAO remains generally neutral to positive. This is a general expected response, and is the reason why Europe won't share in the cold weather. Displacements typically don't induce severe -NAOs, but they do tilt the AO negative.

 

The next several days will feature a slight -NAO, and this could be something to consider for the early week event. Even though the 60N/10hpa reversal didn't occur, this is an impressive SSW and the expected tropospheric impacts are / will be occurring [numerous others skilled in stratospheric forecasting agree as well].

 

The upcoming pattern is a reflection of the Pacific / tropical forcing / stratosphere / AAM-GWO, and other factors. But to give the stratosphere no credit is wrong.

 

10mb9065.png

 

 

 

2quhjir.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's definitely better on the coast as far as snow goes. But a little perspective is needed too. So far so good with the thoughts of more of a Feb and Mar deal, as well as the Pacific really driving the bus. 

 

We will need to see a big final month to 6 weeks over the interior and CNE/NNE for much of the region to have a better winter than '97-'98...we can already rule out some of the really bad places like where PF is....they aren't going to have a winter as snowy as that year.

 

We'll see how cold the final month is too.

 

1998 finished with a wimper, so this year finishing strong would help it catch up.

 

 

 

Anyways, this is all off topic for this thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For all of New England or just your backyard? Put down the birthday beer. This is a borderline record warmest all time winter with no SSW or -NAO. You are going to have many areas come close to or possibly break all time low snow in New England. Coastal areas are doing much better. 

Are we talking about the past or the future. I said winter has broken Ninoheater and you talk about the past. Good stuff Scott. Didn't know it was April

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...