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Storm and Mood Snow Feb 8-11


DotRat_Wx

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latest HRRR not great for NCT or WCT. 

I was just looking at the HRRR. Were you looking at the Experimental or Operational? There's a huge diff for some reason. The Ecperiemntal is showing NEMA getting 2 inches for some reason, with a sharp gradient to the south and the highest totals in SEMA at like 8 inches or some crap. The Operational up to 15z is showing 3-5 more in on top of what the Exp. was showing. I'm gonna put some weight on the placement though, which is a WSW to NNE line from Eastern CT to Boston or a little north. That will prob be the 8in line I think. I'm trying to make a map and can't make one that looks right for the life of me. Because each model (4km NAM, COD interface for NAM, GFS, HRRR) keeps showing lot's of nuances about the totals and placement that I can't put my finger on. I've made and crapped 5 maps so far lol. I might wait a couple hours for the HRRR Op to get to at least 19Z or so.

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Also, as some others have mentioned ratios most likely will be much greater than 10:1. I'm gonna go with 15:1 for most areas, maybe a little less toward SE MA. So 0.4in in Lawrence will prob yield about 6in and 1in in Plymouth maybe 13in. 

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I was just looking at the HRRR. Were you looking at the Experimental or Operational? There's a huge diff for some reason. The Ecperiemntal is showing NEMA getting 2 inches for some reason, with a sharp gradient to the south and the highest totals in SEMA at like 8 inches or some crap. The Operational up to 15z is showing 3-5 more in on top of what the Exp. was showing. I'm gonna put some weight on the placement though, which is a WSW to NNE line from Eastern CT to Boston or a little north. That will prob be the 8in line I think. I'm trying to make a map and can't make one that looks right for the life of me. Because each model (4km NAM, COD interface for NAM, GFS, HRRR) keeps showing lot's of nuances about the totals and placement that I can't put my finger on. I've made and crapped 5 maps so far lol. I might wait a couple hours for the HRRR Op to get to at least 19Z or so.

Hmmm I think I was looking at the exp.

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BOX had 5 straight hours of 1/4SM in their TAF. Shuts down Logan basically. Not sure about that.

 

The aviation drill I gave the office this year was to write a practically perfect TAF forecast based on the 24 hour obs from the January blizzard last year at MHT.

 

Literally 620 uninterrupted minutes of below minimum criteria.

 

But this event is not anything like that. So far at 00z the higher res guidance is looking more like what you mentioned earlier today. Nice band near the Cape, another farther NW, but between it could get a little ragged.

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2013 was a retro storm with tremendous east inflow at all levels. This has some east inflow at 700 and NE at 850. What exactly does an historic snowstorm have in common with current modeled event.Practically every snowstorm has an east inflow component.

 

Any of the larger anomalies are well offshore. For the real goodies you want to be in the anomaly or on the nose of it. Not really the case here. 

 

This is anomalous in the sense of day to day weather for this time of year, but not so much in the sense of East Coast cyclones.

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I was actually thinking about this the other day... I'm not sure people realize how much time it takes to actually get the forecast rolled out. For us, for the 5pm news, the forecast has to pretty much be done for a big event by 230 or so. Graphics are made, web is updated, social media is done, briefings with management, conference calls about staffing, talking to our neighboring NBC owned stations, talking to the other mets, reading reporter scripts, holding meetings with producers, etc takes a lot of time.

 

We can't just change the forecast on a dime when looking at 18z runs. Hell, it's hard to even make relatively minor changes.

 

It's pretty similar with the NWS from what I understand. Briefings with media and emergency management, typing up products, working on stuff for web/social media, getting the grids to look just right. That stuff takes a lot of time to do and you can't start backing off on some products when other products or briefings have already taken place. 

 

In addition to similar duties we have that you mentioned, I know a few people who do this (Ekster and I included), making a cursory run through the forecast grids before the aviation forecast is due shortly after noon. And from that point forward until the package goes out we're essentially editing and tweaking grids to get things the way we want them. This time of year it's easier to bring in the Euro, as it's usually fully in our system by 2:30, but even then you can end up editing for another hour or more after that if you wait for it. So conservatively that's what, a four hour process?

 

The 18z data comes in right around when the main forecast goes out the door. If we wait for that we'd start being too late for the media times. The whole reason why forecasts are updated around 4AM/4PM is because we wanted our headlines to hit the morning and evening news.

 

The short term has definitely evolved into more of a revolving door of updates as new data comes in, but it's not as simple as the 18z NAM trended one way so let's adjust everything.

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