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February 2016 Banter


JoshM

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Unless the Euro shows something amazing then let's bring on spring!!! Dump march idc anymore.

 

Let's keep the WAA pumpin in on the Canadian... maybe we can from ice to spring storms!

 

 

 

gem_T2m_seus_22.png

 

 I'm still skeptical... I don't care if the HP has left for vacation, I want to see a Low plow into this...

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png

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models only show what they know.... I am hoping that more sampling in the coming days might change things toward a winter weather system for GA (wish casting), but if it doesn't on to Spring.  

I know we are done south of Atlanta. I'll keep an I on severe weather season until May. La Nina next year? I hope it's a weak one.

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RNK hanging on for now, but this was out before 18z GFS

 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 30.
CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
SUNNY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 

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From News 2 Grant Gilmore. 15 minutes ago

MONDAY-TUESDAY STORM UPDATE: There remains a great deal of uncertainty in terms of the exact details, but there is at least enough confidence to start talking timeline and general impacts.

SETUP: Arctic air will move in over the weekend and remain in place through Monday. A relatively weak system will swing in from the northwest Sunday night through Monday. Meanwhile, on Monday an area of low pressure will develop over the western Gulf States and begin to track to east and then northeast from Monday into Tuesday.

CURRENT THINKING: The arrival of the first and weaker system through the day on Monday looks to bring scattered snow showers to the Triad. It is difficult to really pin down forecast totals at this point, but I will say we have roughly a 50% chance of seeing between 0.5"-1" of snow. As the area of low pressure moves northeast out of the Gulf States it will bring with it more moisture, but it will also bring warmth up from the south. This injection of warmth (in the mid-levels of the atmosphere first) will cause the precipitation in the Triad to change from snow to either sleet or freezing rain. Currently it looks like there will be a greater threat for freezing rain, but sleet cannot be completely ruled out. With such a strong surge of warmth ahead of the approaching storm I currently don't expect the threat of freezing rain/sleet to last that long resulting in minimal icing (this can definitely change). Temperatures Tuesday will quickly warm and result in the precipitation through the rest of Tuesday being just rain. Between the transition to sleet/freezing rain Monday night and Tuesday morning and then just rain on Tuesday any snow accumulation from Monday would quickly melt.

IMPACTS: Currently, the snow showers Monday could result in some minor travel issues with some roads potentially becoming a little icy or slushy. Near freezing temperatures overnight Monday into Tuesday will maintain a concern for slick spots into Tuesday morning, but as temperatures warm into the 40s Tuesday afternoon icy roads will no longer be a concern. Freezing rain (icing) is not a huge concern right now, but the potential for some minor icing does exist. Any remaining water on the roads Tuesday night could refreeze as temperatures drop back into the low 30s producing some black ice Wednesday morning.

IN SHORT: Monday will definitely produce some type of winter weather in the Triad and requires a close watch. There will be some impacts and caution will need to be taken if out driving. The details of this storm are still coming together and things WILL change. Keep checking back for the latest update.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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I know we are done south of Atlanta. I'll keep an I on severe weather season until May. La Nina next year? I hope it's a weak one.

La Niña can produce snow in the southeast, it generally requires blocking more so while El Niños can produce without it because in general the southern branch is more active. I would watch for an active southern branch next winter due to possible lag effect from the strength or this El Niño

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La Niña can produce snow in the southeast, it generally requires blocking more so while El Niños can produce without it because in general the southern branch is more active. I would watch for an active southern branch next winter due to possible lag effect from the strength or this El Niño

I agree, I'm leaning towards a neutral enso.
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It seems nearly impossible to have a good winter here anymore. No matter how good things supposedly look heading into winter, it seems there is always something these days to throw a wrench in things. Not sure if the climate is changing or things just don't work like they did in the past, but I think long range outlooks are really useless here. Just too many things can happen, and I don't think anyone can really know which way things can go here for winter. Mets don't even know of 12 hours out sometimes what is going to happen with a winter storm threat, and we sure as heck can't depend on the models most of the time to get it right.

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