Eastern NY Thread - Winter

[ENYsnow]

Do lake effect snow bands fall apart before they reach you? Do coastal storms repeatedly taunt you? Well, welcome to the eastern NY thread! Things can only get better from here, right? 

 

After a hideous first half of winter there may be a glimmer of hope heading into February.  Looking beyond the midweek rainer, the setup has some potential with a decent signal around 2/6-2/8.  Ensembles display a favorably placed mean long wave trough, but there’s still plenty of uncertainty regarding PV location, amplitude of the southern stream wave, phasing, etc.  Should be plenty to discuss.

 

Here’s to hoping we’ll see this in the near future:

 

METAR KALB 260151Z 36016G21KT 1/4SM R19/1400V1600FT +SN FZFG FEW001 OVC007 M03/M03 A2935 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/0134 SLP942 SNINCR 5/17 P0008 T10281033 

[snowgeek]

The 12Z GFS offers some hope. It does at least look like we will have our chances after the cutter. Hopefully we don't get stuck between dying primaries and bombing coastals.

[eduggs]

The afternoon runs weren't very encouraging.  But this interpretation probably has more to do with feeling snakebitten than the specifics of the model output.  I agree about the favorable long wave trof... potentially in position for several days with a deepening PNA ridge along the west coast.  But will the embedded shortwaves be well placed and well timed?  So far this winter the parade of shortwaves in the polar jet have not connected well with the southern stream or each other.  On to 0z...

[TugHillMatt]

We haven't done much better here in the Great Lakes region either... How much snow have you guys had over there in eastern NY?

[eduggs]

We haven't done much better here in the Great Lakes region either... How much snow have you guys had over there in eastern NY?

Albany airport (KALB) has 5.5" to date.  But they've actually gotten into a few long fetch lake effect bands that didn't hit everybody.  I think most of the valley is in the 4-7" range to date.  Just south of here towards the Mid-Hudson valley might be more like 3-4"

 

The hilltowns to the east of the Hudson have done a bit better, maybe 8-12"  That's all splitting hairs.  It's been brutal everywhere. 

[eduggs]

We haven't done much better here in the Great Lakes region either... How much snow have you guys had over there in eastern NY?

I'd guess you haven't had too many synoptic snowstorms in your area.  How's the lake effect around there?

[TugHillMatt]

I'd guess you haven't had too many synoptic snowstorms in your area.  How's the lake effect around there?

 

In terms of synoptic snows, we've probably had 5 to 10 inches. In terms of lake effect/enhanced snows, my area has picked up about 30 to 35 inches from those, mostly in a two week time span. We had a few inches in November, NONE in December, and then it picked up in January. My area averages 100 inches of snow a winter, and we are at about 40 to 45 inches, thanks to some lake-enhanced events. So we're doing better than other places, but still way behind where we should be. We have also had many thaws melting and compacting the snow, so snowpack hasn't been too impressive either. Still, I have about 6 inches of snow/ice crust pack throughout my yard.

[chietanen]

Kind of on the fringe of your area, but my seasonal total is just shy of 2". Impressive for sure.

[ENYsnow]

The afternoon runs weren't very encouraging.  But this interpretation probably has more to do with feeling snakebitten than the specifics of the model output.  I agree about the favorable long wave trof... potentially in position for several days with a deepening PNA ridge along the west coast.  But will the embedded shortwaves be well placed and well timed?  So far this winter the parade of shortwaves in the polar jet have not connected well with the southern stream or each other.  On to 0z...

Yeah seems as though the real threat may be pushed back farther, a common theme this winter.  With the parade of impulses on the 12z suite, you'd think one of them would have to produce something.

[ENYsnow]

Kind of on the fringe of your area, but my seasonal total is just shy of 2". Impressive for sure.

3.9" here, I think ALB slant sticked it during some lake effect streamers.  If you told me in October that ALB would have almost three times as much snow as POU on 2/1 I'd assume we were in good shape.

[wolfie09]

We haven't done that well out in wcny either (relatively speaking) , i have a soft spot in my heart for eastern ny, i spent a few years out in troy and my mom still lives out that way..It was darn cold but the snow was a little underwhelming (minus vd storm)..I hope u guys get an opportunity to cash in soon!! The euro has a bomb on the 10th both its goes right through cny...Still plenty of time for that too change obviously..Good luck to you guys in the future..

[ENYsnow]

Well, the 12z GFS gives us what we're looking for:

 

 

Unfortunately a lot has to go right with the timing of that southern stream short wave, and we're still 180 hours out lol.

[ENYsnow]

Room for improvement here, would be nice to see the lead wave slow down a bit.

 

[DeltaT13]

Room for improvement here, would be nice to see the lead wave slow down a bit.

 

 

Indeed, the 0z run was much more appetizing than the 12z run.  The ingredients are certainly there.  We should get a better idea once the primary wave is actually on the west coast.  

[eduggs]

At this point it looks like three potential threats in the next week:

 

The post frontal wave late Thurs. into Friday - if the trof ends up slightly sharper in the TN valley around 48hrs with a good pocket of vorticity and a low pressure center develops along the front, I could see precip. spreading 100 miles west of current progs.  Probably not more than a light event at best, and most likely to miss east.

 

The southern stream storm late Sun. into Mon. - appears to have trended more threatening in recent runs but the risk as I see it is an offshore miss.  Can't rule out a big hit though or even a mixed precip event if it links up with the followup northern stream and really wraps up.

 

The amplifying follow up northern stream storm for midweek - A huge PNA ridge and high amplitude trof are modeled to set up in a favorable position sometime early or middle of next week.  But will the baroclinic zone be too far offshore in the wake of the preceding system?  These last two systems could end up being a single system or the third one could end up an ULL passage and mountain snow showers.

 

I'm not particularly excited about any of the threats yet, but there are ingredients in place and this period is clearly worthy of model watching.  I think the near term is most predictable and I'll be keeping an eye on the initial progressive, positively tilted trof to see if we might sneak a period of snow out of it.  Obviously a better chance for elevated SNE.  The latter periods look really changeable. 

[eduggs]

The GFS ensemble mean for Monday is well offshore, with almost every individual member offshore.  One or two modest hits and one wrapped up into PA.  I don't think it means too much because in my experience, the ensembles cluster too close to the mean and shift too dramatically with the operational model, and therefore aren't quite the predictive tool that they are intended to be.

[eduggs]

Pretty good shift west with the Fri. wave on the NAM.  The 0z now brushes SE NJ and SE MA with a few tenths of precip.  Still room to come further I think, but this system probably isn't for us.  I expect ensembles to lag in this case.  Big QPF out on the Cape but lower levels look warm.

[ENYsnow]

At this point it looks like three potential threats in the next week:

 

The post frontal wave late Thurs. into Friday - if the trof ends up slightly sharper in the TN valley around 48hrs with a good pocket of vorticity and a low pressure center develops along the front, I could see precip. spreading 100 miles west of current progs.  Probably not more than a light event at best, and most likely to miss east.

 

The southern stream storm late Sun. into Mon. - appears to have trended more threatening in recent runs but the risk as I see it is an offshore miss.  Can't rule out a big hit though or even a mixed precip event if it links up with the followup northern stream and really wraps up.

 

The amplifying follow up northern stream storm for midweek - A huge PNA ridge and high amplitude trof are modeled to set up in a favorable position sometime early or middle of next week.  But will the baroclinic zone be too far offshore in the wake of the preceding system?  These last two systems could end up being a single system or the third one could end up an ULL passage and mountain snow showers.

 

I'm not particularly excited about any of the threats yet, but there are ingredients in place and this period is clearly worthy of model watching.  I think the near term is most predictable and I'll be keeping an eye on the initial progressive, positively tilted trof to see if we might sneak a period of snow out of it.  Obviously a better chance for elevated SNE.  The latter periods look really changeable. 

That nicely sums it up. This is a pretty complex pattern, probably going to be some wacky model solutions for the next couple days. I just fear we get the triple whammy.. anafrontal precip stays just to the east, the southern stream impulse misses to our east as well and the main trough doesn't dig/amplify as much, keeping us out of the game for a late blooming Miller B.

[eduggs]

That nicely sums it up. This is a pretty complex pattern, probably going to be some wacky model solutions for the next couple days. I just fear we get the triple whammy.. anafrontal precip stays just to the east, the southern stream impulse misses to our east as well and the main trough doesn't dig/amplify as much, keeping us out of the game for a late blooming Miller B.

That's how it looks to me right now too.  Expectations are low.  I keep thinking something has to break right.

[ENYsnow]

That's how it looks to me right now too.  Expectations are low.  I keep thinking something has to break right.

If we come out of this period without any notable accumulations, we may be destined to break some records.  I'm starting to think an NAO block of some sort is required to get an interior snowstorm nowadays.

[eduggs]

If we come out of this period without any notable accumulations, we may be destined to break some records.  I'm starting to think an NAO block of some sort is required to get an interior snowstorm nowadays.

Yeah.  Upslope and lake effect snow belts can get theirs.  But coastal low development has been following the offshore Gulf stream.

[ENYsnow]

Yeah.  Upslope and lake effect snow belts can get theirs.  But coastal low development has been following the offshore Gulf stream.

It's crazy how many times in the last couple years we've seen coastal low centers get tugged east before before reaching ALB's 'benchmark'.  I initially thought it was just a result of unfortunate ULL placement, but it seems to come in many different flavors.. maybe the gulf stream is having a greater effect.

[chietanen]

Yeah.  Upslope and lake effect snow belts can get theirs.  But coastal low development has been following the offshore Gulf stream.

 

 

It's crazy how many times in the last couple years we've seen coastal low centers get tugged east before before reaching ALB's 'benchmark'.  I initially thought it was just a result of unfortunate ULL placement, but it seems to come in many different flavors.. maybe the gulf stream is having a greater effect.

 

If it's related to a Gulf Stream effect and it's a relatively recent phenomenon, what would be the theory as to why it's happening? Warmer waters? Slower circulation of the GS? I lived up in Central NY (Cortland) for several years in the early 2000's and it was incredible how many big winter storms seemed to crush the area during that time frame. I feel like those are rare over the past several years.

[ENYsnow]

If it's related to a Gulf Stream effect and it's a relatively recent phenomenon, what would be the theory as to why it's happening? Warmer waters? Slower circulation of the GS? I lived up in Central NY (Cortland) for several years in the early 2000's and it was incredible how many big winter storms seemed to crush the area during that time frame. I feel like those are rare over the past several years.

Agreed, coastal huggers were pretty common in the early 2000's with much fewer fringe events. I wouldn't think there's been a great enough change in mean SSTs to repeatedly displace the baroclinic zone further offshore, but I suppose it's possible. It might have a bit more to do with high-latitude blocking and intraseasonal fluctuations in the ao/nao.

[eduggs]

The longwave trof looks to go negative tilt by Tuesday.  The surface would look pretty different without the antecedent offshore low.  CMC and GFS indicating a moderate to glancing hit and you could imagine lingering light snows for a day or so afterwards depending on the height field.

 

I still feel like we get the shaft throughout this whole period.

[ENYsnow]

The longwave trof looks to go negative tilt by Tuesday.  The surface would look pretty different without the antecedent offshore low.  CMC and GFS indicating a moderate to glancing hit and you could imagine lingering light snows for a day or so afterwards depending on the height field.

 

I still feel like we get the shaft throughout this whole period.

Yeah, tough to shake that feeling. 12z gefs are decently west of the op though. If the longwave trough goes negative or even cuts off that far west the vortmax won't be able to swing wide right and we'll be in better shape.

[ENYsnow]

The longwave trof looks to go negative tilt by Tuesday.  The surface would look pretty different without the antecedent offshore low.  CMC and GFS indicating a moderate to glancing hit and you could imagine lingering light snows for a day or so afterwards depending on the height field.

 

I still feel like we get the shaft throughout this whole period.

Meanwhile, it looks like you were right about the anafrontal precip.. 12z euro brought it a decent bit west, just enough to tease us.

[eduggs]

It looks like event #3 is the last man standing at this point.  Unless the UK/CMC are right and we get a coating of snow on Fri.

[ENYsnow]

This looks pretty familiar.

 

[eduggs]

This looks pretty familiar.

 

 

Sure does.  Kinda funny actually.  The SNE crew was kind of asleep at the wheel and this one snuck up on them while they were looking towards next week.  They'll probably whine their way to an average snow winter.