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GHD III Winter Storm February 1st-3rd (Part 2)


Powerball

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Thank you.  Did a loop of that model run and it shows me getting very heavy snow, then dry slot for a few hours and then back to snow.  As with the other models, it has the low going right over Chicago.

 

EDIT: 12z GEFS has the low going over Chicago, which is no surprise.

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My snowfall call of 5-6 inches might be looking good, although it'll be extremely wet in nature.  Also, very good likelihood that Cedar Falls will get their THIRD 10+ inch storm this season.

 

EDIT: EURO shows the low passing just north of Chicago, just as the 12z GFS was showing.  I guess it's good to go.

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FWIW the GEM sniffed out the colder solution first; complete with accurate sleet accumulations, with the post Christmas storm. Pretty much every model over did the WAA.

 

There was a couple EURO ensemble members that had some snowfall maps that looked like the GGEM.

Edit:

 

New track map. Great consistency for a south of KC low passage. All track out of WI now, GFS close. UKMET data missing after it leaves KS.

 

post-7-0-30558500-1454269745.jpg

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Here's last 4 GFS snow maps (0z and 12z for GEM comparison sake). MBY has been drifting in and out of the heavier snows, every other run. Hate being on the fringe! My gut tells me this is going to end up like the late December storm - we'll get about 5-6" and there will be 14" totals 15-30 miles to my west.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_21.png

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_19.png

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_17.png

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_15.png

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Would it be unrealistic for the low to track about 75 to 100 miles farther southeast than what is forecasted?

 

50 would not be unheard of this close in.

Probably not that far. The baroclinic zone position would have to end up further south.

 

Nelson, I think your area is the mostly snow area.

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Blizzard Watch updated. Removed a few lines of counties on southeast edge and replaced with Winter Storm Watch. Seems like it's due to mid-day dry slot before filling back in. Interesting.

Edit: Maybe not wholly accurate. Seems they're thinking winds in my area will be just below blizzard criteria. I have a feeling this will change by Tuesday morning.

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RGEM continuing to stay south of other guidance.

 

At this point, I think 0Z will finally put some more certainty around this. Sounds like it will be fully sampled by then.

 

GFS didn't budge to speak of.

Yeah, Upper level data still not in.

 

NAM models in close sync, along with the RGEM so far.

 

post-7389-0-28360300-1454278995_thumb.jp

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I can't believe with the Low tracking through Indy and Toledo that we still can't manage over an inch of snow up here from the system. Rain today, rain Tuesday, and now our lake effect potential looks bleak.

 

Models are showing a slightly above freezing layer for you just above 850mb. If somehow they are overplaying it, then you could get some snow - If southern track could be pulled off.

 

MKX mentions the southern fringe in their discussion.

 

 

 

.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE KEY MODEL RUN MAY VERY WELL BE TONIGHT`S 00Z RUN AS THE STORM

SYSTEM NOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST US WILL BE FULLY SAMPLED. THIS

CONTINUES TO BE A TRICKY FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF

PRECIP IN PARTS OF SRN AND ERN WI. THE CURRENT NW/SE SNOWFALL GRADIENT

ACROSS THE CWA STILL LOOKS OK. NOT PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES

TO CURRENT WATCH AREA ATTM. TRACK OF KEY SURFACE AND UPPER AIR

FEATURES SUPPORTS GOING OUTLINED AREA OF CONCERN. STILL A ZONE OF

LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WATCH AREA SINCE

LATER RUNS COULD STILL SUPPORT A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND COLDER

SOLUTION...AS THE 12Z GEM IS STILL SHOWING...THOUGH KEY UPPER

FEATURES FROM THIS MODEL WOULD FAVOR A MORE NW PLACEMENT OF THE

LOW AS LAID OUT BY THE ECMWF AND ESP THE GFS. PER COLLAB WITH WPC

AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...STEADY AS SHE GOES FOR NOW. THE 500

MILLIBAR VORT/850 MILLIBAR LOW CENTERS AND POSITIONING OF 200-300

MILLIBAR JET CORRIDORS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THE MORE NORTHERN

TRACK. 12Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A WARMING OF 850 TEMPS INTO THE

SRN AND ERN CWA AS WELL WITH 850 LOW RIDING NEWD THROUGH THE CWA.

LOOKING AT PROJECTED TRACKS OF THE 850 LOW ACROSS SRN WI AND WITH

A SEEMINGLY MORE LIKELY NORTHWARD SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS NE IL

INTO FAR SE WI AND LWR MI...THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST DEF

ZONE SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW 1/3 OF OF THE CWA. THIS

AREA ALSO GETS CLIPPED BY NORTHERN HALF OF CLOSED 700 MILLIBAR LOW

CENTER FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A DECENT SLUG

OF ISENTROPICALLY INDUCED PRECIPITATION AT THE OUTSET ON TUESDAY

AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMS WITH THE FORCING ACROSS

THE MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTED 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE THE

BAROCLINIC ZONE STARTS TO PIVOT A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND

NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD THEN ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO A MIX OR ALL

RAIN IN PARTS OF SRN WI WHILE FAVORING THE NORTHERN CWA TO REMAIN

ALL SNOW. LIGHTER DEF ZONE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH

INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW. THERE IS CONCERN

FOR THE NORTH AS WELL WHERE A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD BRIEFLY

PLAY HAVOC WITH PRECIP TYPES AND SNOW AMOUNTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

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