franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The pna epo combo is incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The pna epo combo is incredible. This pattern could produce a very BIG storm for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This pattern could produce a very BIG storm for somebody. Yeah, that combo's for the last week in Feb has got me hanging back from the cliff for the winter. Want to see where that takes us. Need an active STJ to go with it though I think. We'll either be cold and dry, or basking in snowy glory! Yearly late Feb storm persistence FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This pattern could produce a very BIG storm for somebody.March 93 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think some of that has to do with statistical maneuvering. Maybe in March, we have more cut-offs that can generate enough cold through dynamics that allow for snow. But IMO, a -NAO is one of the best features we can rely upon to both suppress the storm track and allow cold air to penetrate deep into the south and remain in place longer. Any way you slice it, the -NAO, if sufficient in magnitude, positioning, and configuration widens the window for SE winter storms. Show me statistics all you want, but synoptics tell me all I need to know about the importance of a -NAO when it comes to winter weather here.* * DISCLAIMER for all the "NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm" people: A -NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm -- a good winter storm -- even a great winter storm. But if I'm captain of the Winter Storm team, the -NAO is my first pick. Thanks for that explanation and that makes very good sense. If I recall correctly, it was Bastardi who harped on this point a lot several years ago before he left AccuWx but of course, a lot of his iterations were to find the allusive snowstorm no matter the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This pattern could produce a very BIG storm for somebody. Congrats Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Latter part of GFS run has 3 California to Texas waves. In theory, this is what we should begin to see if we get the Ventrice map pattern posted above. Aleutian Low extending well to the south should send waves into California instead of the Pac NW. Whether there is any timed cold air is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I think some of that has to do with statistical maneuvering. Maybe in March, we have more cut-offs that can generate enough cold through dynamics that allow for snow. But IMO, a -NAO is one of the best features we can rely upon to both suppress the storm track and allow cold air to penetrate deep into the south and remain in place longer. Any way you slice it, the -NAO, if sufficient in magnitude, positioning, and configuration widens the window for SE winter storms. Show me statistics all you want, but synoptics tell me all I need to know about the importance of a -NAO when it comes to winter weather here.* * DISCLAIMER for all the "NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm" people: A -NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm -- a good winter storm -- even a great winter storm. But if I'm captain of the Winter Storm team, the -NAO is my first pick. Bricks a number 2! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CR, where are your creative daily indices? Please bring them back...I need a good laugh to help ease the pain of our underperforming winter! Maybe an early March storm will save us all! Here you go sir! I haven't done it in a while as things have just been kind of meandering. Plus, I've been a little busier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Latter part of GFS run has 3 California to Texas waves. In theory, this is what we should begin to see if we get the Ventrice map pattern posted above. Aleutian Low extending well to the south should send waves into California instead of the Pac NW. Whether there is any timed cold air is another matter. 100% agree. We finally settle into a good El Nino pattern as winter winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 ^ Better late than never. This will give us about a two week window for a widespread southern winter storm to close out an otherwise poor winter. Hopefully we can get the timing right somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Latter part of GFS run has 3 California to Texas waves. In theory, this is what we should begin to see if we get the Ventrice map pattern posted above. Aleutian Low extending well to the south should send waves into California instead of the Pac NW. Whether there is any timed cold air is another matter. No, that doesn't happen any more. Seriously, when's the last time that's happened? Everything this winter has seemed to drop in from the Rockies. And I can't remember when we've had a southern stream storm go from CA, TX, to the SE the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Here you go sir! I haven't done it in a while as things have just been kind of meandering. Plus, I've been a little busier. ao.sprd2.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_small.jpg Thanks, CR. You haven't lost your touch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No, that doesn't happen any more. Seriously, when's the last time that's happened? Everything this winter has seemed to drop in from the Rockies. And I can't remember when we've had a southern stream storm go from CA, TX, to the SE the last few years. 2/14/14. It was kind of weak coming into CA, but amplified later with northern stream phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Mega ridge bridge on the Euro ensembles! Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Mega ridge bridge on the Euro ensembles! Wow Ridge where, how high, how far east or west and corresponding trough location? Temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Ridge where, how high, how far east or west and corresponding trough location? Temps? west coast up through Alaska to Russia. Downstream trough in the East with an active southern branch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 west coast up through Alaska to Russia. Downstream trough in the East with an active southern branch. Thanks, man! It's an 80+ week with no time to look and I'm Jonesing. Hope there's some cold weather with it! Back to litigation ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I thought farther south and east you went the wetter it would be but I didn't think central NC/SC/GA would be this dry. I also didn't think we would be at 1" of snow though mid Feb either. Low expectations aren't low enough it seems. Thinking we skunk with a big Nina next year, can't get lower than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well, we were at 0" of snow this time last winter and still ended up above climo, so you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well, we were at 0" of snow this time last winter and still ended up above climo, so you never know. We = GSO not RDU. We finished at 6". We won't come close to that this winter. I do think you will hit climo, at a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We = GSO not RDU. We finished at 6". We won't come close to that this winter. I do think you will hit climo, at a minimum. I think RDU hit climo still, though. Not sure we're going to hit climo here this winter. We need 5-6" more. Maybe we can chop half of that off if we score with the upcoming wintry mix storm, but we're still going to need another before winter ends and the clock is ticking (of course, as I said we had 0" last year until Fab Feb 16th and ended with 9.9", so who knows?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Twitter@crankywxguy250mb, Around and Around we go. Firehose, exhaust, reload, Firehose. Up/Down out east continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 0z Euro para ensembles look good after the brief warm-up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looking at the 6z GFS, and it would indicate that there is potential the last part of February going into March. So just maybe we get one more opportunity before spring takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looking at the 6z GFS, and it would indicate that there is potential the last part of February going into March. So just maybe we get one more opportunity before spring takes over. I get all giddy whenever I see a low off the SE coast and cold air around Mar 1-3, hoping lightning can strike twice.....also one of the bigger snows of my life happened in late Feb back in 1989 close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 1980 was the same for the outer banks. We used to say it was going to snow every time the circus was in Norfolk. Sure enough, that did happen 6 out of 7 years in the last week of feb, first week of march. Half of Dare Beaches EMS crew actually got snowed in at the HR Coliseum, and the rest of us had to pull a 60 hour shift until they could get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 06z GEFS panels 2/27-2/28 is pretty impressive this far out. Indications have been for a last rodeo for the last week of Feb for a while now. This will likely not change for the worse as we get closer, only can change for the best IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Winter is over, at this point people are grasping at imaginary straws in this thread. Torch is incoming. Great way to end February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Winter is over, at this point people are grasping at imaginary straws in this thread. Torch is incoming. Great way to end February. Classic. I hope you enjoy your rain Monday! Must be exciting down there! I'll enjoy my day off tomorrow watching the flakes fly all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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