Snow dog Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Geez... lots of mega hits on the 18z GEFS ensembles.. I think over half of them are giving me at least 2 or 3 inches. Its safe to say that all solutions are still on the table at this point. Right now, the best forecast is probably going with a blend of the gfs and euro ensemble means. Yeah, I'll take 14 or 15 now please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Well that stinks, I was thinking since it's showing the 12z run that it would start loading images at some point. What is the latest time it usually comes out, (if it does load). I'm starting to think we've missed our window for 12z run to load... Yeah, doubt the 12z is coming, it's really late. 00z will roll in by the morning hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 DGEX looks like a big ice storm. Clown maps looks great, but the 850's are above zero for most outside of the mountains the entire time. Between .5-1" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Could Monday morning end up like the January 25, 2013 event? Same setup I think. Very cold/dry airmass in place that friday morning (cold high pressure wedge centered in the Carolinas) when precip moved in. strong WAA sent temps surging into the 60s as far east as east AL while the Carolinas and N GA stayed AOB freezing with winter precip. I wonder what could be different with this system? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=icestorm_01252013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Somebody should start a storm thread before the 0z runs. Who's feeling lucky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Somebody should start a storm thread before the 0z runs. Who's feeling lucky? I second that. WOW started the last one and brought the MOJO, Jan. 22-23 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Somebody should start a storm thread before the 0z runs. Who's feeling lucky? Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GSP sounds robust for the mtns. snow likely Monday and snow likely Monday night, Jason on WLOS says accumulating snow Monday and Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Warmer and drier this run through 108. Havent seen maps yet, just looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I know this is off topic but since this thread is sort of dead right now.....what happened to Larry, I do not see him posting any this winter. Sorry if it has already been discussed, just wondered. He was a big member of the SE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I know this is off topic but since this thread is sort of dead right now.....what happened to Larry, I do not see him posting any this winter. Sorry if it has already been discussed, just wondered. He was a big member of the SE crew. He posts on another forum now. I think there was a poster who who chased him away or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 He posts on another forum now. I think there was a poster who who chased him away or something. thanks...that's a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
27596WXNUT Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Since both of the "pending" storms have threads of their own......anyone have any insight on the next few weeks after Tuesday and what we are looking at temp wise? Normal? Above? Below? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro looks seasonal after the Mon/Tues event, then a warm up that take us up to the last week of Feb. I think there is some indication that there is more cold air after that, so maybe there will be a window for one last chance then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Since both of the "pending" storms have threads of their own......anyone have any insight on the next few weeks after Tuesday and what we are looking at temp wise? Normal? Above? Below? Kind of like our last post widespread January storm pattern.......quickly back to normal with a few days of Above Normal. 60s+ possible all the way back to the Blue Ridge. If this does indeed occur, it may try to balance out again with a strong storm and cold air period in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Since both of the "pending" storms have threads of their own......anyone have any insight on the next few weeks after Tuesday and what we are looking at temp wise? Normal? Above? Below?warm next weekend so get out and enjoy it. After that, it gets cold again with a huge ridge out west. Massive pna and -epo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arandall Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 warm next weekend so get out and enjoy it. After that, it gets cold again with a huge ridge out west. Massive pna and -epo. Just in time for some more cold rain, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 warm next weekend so get out and enjoy it. After that, it gets cold again with a huge ridge out west. Massive pna and -epo. cold in late Feb and March is rarely something to get excited about outside of the mountains. Last year was an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 cold in late Feb and March is rarely something to get excited about outside of the mountains. Last year was an exception. No. The first 10 days of March have been quite wintry over the years. Maybe not in west-central GA, but I don't live in the mountains, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Seen more than a few freezes between sunburns in March, way down here. Screws up bass fishing, but I'd prefer bass fishing be screwed up after what we went through in December .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 warm next weekend so get out and enjoy it. After that, it gets cold again with a huge ridge out west. Massive pna and -epo. No good without a -nao as we are about to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 No good without a -nao as we are about to seeprobably, maybe we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 This has a been a problem this winter. Maybe not last year or the year before, but it has this year http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 For some reason, I though a -NAO was less impactful as we headed toward March? Wouldn't be the 1st time I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Looking at the ensembles, we get a little warm-up and then go into a pattern with an insane -EPO/+PNA combo. Looks like the STJ is active too. Aleutian low is in a good spot and of course, you guessed it, no -NAO whatsoever. Means we could get decent timing here or there. It's not a SE winter storm pattern, but it keeps us in the game, especially the western and northern zones. The 0z GFS has a nice STJ signal the last few days of its run. And the MJO is getting around the horn in a hurry, which is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 For some reason, I though a -NAO was less impactful as we headed toward March? Wouldn't be the 1st time I was wrong. I think some of that has to do with statistical maneuvering. Maybe in March, we have more cut-offs that can generate enough cold through dynamics that allow for snow. But IMO, a -NAO is one of the best features we can rely upon to both suppress the storm track and allow cold air to penetrate deep into the south and remain in place longer. Any way you slice it, the -NAO, if sufficient in magnitude, positioning, and configuration widens the window for SE winter storms. Show me statistics all you want, but synoptics tell me all I need to know about the importance of a -NAO when it comes to winter weather here.* * DISCLAIMER for all the "NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm" people: A -NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm -- a good winter storm -- even a great winter storm. But if I'm captain of the Winter Storm team, the -NAO is my first pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Do we ever get sustained -nao's (in the optimum spot) in winter?...and I don't mean for 3, 4, or even 5 days, but like 2-weeks or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poptones Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 * DISCLAIMER for all the "NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm" people: A -NAO isn't necessary to get a winter storm -- a good winter storm -- even a great winter storm. But if I'm captain of the Winter Storm team, the -NAO is my first pick. GREAT way of putting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 CR, where are your creative daily indices? Please bring them back...I need a good laugh to help ease the pain of our underperforming winter! Maybe an early March storm will save us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 From Mike Ventrice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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