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February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


TARHEELPROGRAMMER

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Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.

That encompasses more than half of this board

be careful when you say north GA. I don't think this threat looks good for most of metro Atlanta. It looks good for far north GA though.
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Don't mean to get in a debate with you, but this threat looks good for west Tennessee, north Georgia, upstate sc, and western nc including the foothills and most of north central nc.

That encompasses more than half of this board

 

Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it.

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For my neighbors wondering, nothing really looks any good for Columbia on the EPS, Euro, Euro Para, UKMET.  I gave up following the GFS, GGEM, etc.  

Cold rain is the theme of the day  :)    I did just see a very small flizzard on the way home though.   :lol: 

 

Jma is a hit for western posters.

Congrats to Seattle  :P  

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Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up.  Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving.

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Just got to let it roll off of your back. I can't tell you how many times I read 'this storm is a bust' from down easters, as it was dumping 15" at my house on 1/22. We all want snow in our backyard. We're not all going to get it. Just look at what the models are saying for you and roll with it.

 

Honestly IMHO it's a sure sign that the subforum covers too much territory.

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Given the magnitude of the true arctic air in place, it will be exceedingly hard to scour out and/or warm up.  Freezing rain will help move the process along, but if that high hangs on a bit longer, or a meso high develops, it could be an all frozen event for more than just the western zones...all that is assuming that there is precipitation and that said precipitation doesn't delay too long in arriving.

 

With respect to the Triangle Is it the path of the SLP (sound rider through NC?) that is the problem or just lack of CAA?

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With respect to the Triangle Is it the path of the SLP (sound rider through NC?) that is the problem or just lack of CAA?

 

I think it's way too early to tell either way right now.  It could literally go in either direction.  By all accounts, it looks like the high is moving out as the precip is moving in.  Taken literally, this would be a snow or ice to rain situation for the Triangle.  But taking a situation like this literally at 5+ days out is an act of folly, really.

 

The two critical things to remember are:

 

1) Strong wedging (which looks very likely) will be slower to break down than the models show.  In this case, we will have very cold and dry air in place.  If the precip arrives (IF IF IF) before the high moves completely out, then game on for a frozen deal, with maybe (MAYBE) some rain at the end.

 

2 ) Precipitation usually arrives faster than the models show, assuming a system exists, and can move in before the wedge moves out.  I know that may sound obvious, but often, when there is a system running into a strong wedge, precip breaks out earlier than the models show, even at 2 day leads.

 

There still might not be a system.  The high could end up farther north and weaker as we get closer (this is a frequent problem).  So there are many things to mess it up.  But if we get a decent system that gets in here while there is still wedging, you won't have to worry about a storm running up through the Triangle.  It will likely Miller B with redevelopment offshore.

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Thanks CR. Even a B storm with new slp could ride the Sound like last time is my guess

Definitely. I want to see the high as strong and as far south as modeled and hang around longer than modeled. Then, I want to see the low more south than modeled and faster than modeled. That would be a classic COLD winter storm.

That's not too much to ask, right?! :)

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Para Euro drops a couple inches of snow over northeast Georgia/Upstate then an inch+ of freezing rain on top.

 

 

Para Euro snow maps match up closely with the OP Euro. More snow for the mountains. The difference lies in the surface temps. The para is keeping NE GA and Upstate SC sub-freezing when the heaviest axis of precip pivots through on Monday evening. 

 

 

Edit: From Gwinnett through Athens/Anderson/Greenville is still subfreezing at 7pm Monday evening where 1.25 to 1.75 inches of liquid has fallen up and down this line. 

 

 

Also, precip doesnt really  make it to Raleigh until midnight, when the wedge has been busted and surface temps have risen to the mid 50's there! (It does this b/c it's plowing the strengthening surface low up through Central, NC)

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