ncskywarn Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 RDU 00Z GFS QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disco-lemonade Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 ecmwf looks good at hour 96, colder no doubt Yep there it is, 985 due east of wilmington, 850s below freezing all the way to FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 ecmwf looks good at hour 96, colder no doubt It's a better run. Not far off the GFS really. A little weaker with the closing off wave compared to the GFS, but it was better than its prev run with phasing in the northern stream energy....it's a little east with the max QPF compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro also trended better with the light snows across the southeast Mon-Tues....digs the trough a little more southwest this run. It actually looked a little better than the GFS for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Euro also trended better with the light snows across the southeast Mon-Tues....digs the trough a little more southwest this run. It actually looked a little better than the GFS for Monday Man, if that low develops a little more south, NC could get crushed. VA northward gets crushed, as modeled, but it's so close. (talking about the Monday-Tuesday system) Of course, that's a scenario that almost never plays out, aside from maybe January 2003. I noticed the 00z GGEM ENS look fairly good for the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I have a hard time believing people in the SE do not see snow over the next two weeks. Obviously that Miller A is going to be what everyone watchings but I'm interested in the time period just after that. I could see a big phasing storm happening there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Top Analog from CIPS Mean snowfall from CIPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Top Analog from CIPS Sun/Sun night so close to being a decent hit for MBY just need it 3-4 degrees colder ( as always) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Sun/Sun night so close to being a decent hit for MBY just need it 3-4 degrees colder ( as always)I don't really think it trends well for east of 95, if it does I'm worried about mixing/rain. Pulling for you guys with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I don't really think it trends well for east of 95, if it does I'm worried about mixing/rain. Pulling for you guys with this one. 6z GFS shows snow for about I95 west. But the precip does not get much west or north of Raleigh. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_102_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=102&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160203+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I can see this trending NW as I mentioned earlier today, but I do wonder if the GFS is too strong with the closing off 5h wave. That needs to be strong in order to get the colder temps and to get the precip thrown back inland....being that this is a late bloomer with precip developing right on top of usI honestly don't see how it can, the next trough is fast on its heels not giving it any room to amplify. Hopefully that trough can dig more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What's your opinion on the Miller A? I don't think WNC has much of a shot in it...but it can easily trend north and west. Has a very PGV special look to me. Of course I say that so it'll probably trend more for WNC at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Great trends over night. Things are really looking up for late this weekend and next week. Hope the good trends continue today. We might even have a storm thread soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Any EPS reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 I don't think WNC has much of a shot in it...but it can easily trend north and west. Has a very PGV special look to me. Of course I say that so it'll probably trend more for WNC at 12z. These almost always correct slightly NW inside of 48hrs. With that being said, the look is good from Columbia up to Raleigh. Snow chances are largely going to be dependent on the depth of the 500mb low. A lot of fun is made about dynamical cooling, generating its old cold air, welp, that's the situation here. With a lack of parent high, attendant cold airmass, heights falls on the backside are going to need to be sufficiently deep enough to drive to boundary to isothermal with heavy wet snow. Where is going to be a function of the 850 track, right now I would say the 850 gets going over Columbia and comes off around Myrtle Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Brick, you called this, please feel free to freshen things up with a dedicated thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looking into next weeks clipper, the 0z GFS BUFKIT ratios were at 25:1! That would squeeze out 3.5" out of the .12 that falls. I'm about as excited as one can get about a clipper a week out. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Looking into next weeks clipper, the 0z GFS BUFKIT ratios were at 25:1! That would squeeze out 3.5" out of the .12 that falls. I'm about as excited as one can get about a clipper a week out. We'll see how it goes. That's definitely some cold air that could produce (higher ratios). All we need are some upper level disturbances to pass through and we will be in business. That trough is deep so our chances are higher than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Navgem has shifted way west and now buries central and eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 What a nice problem this would be to have; trends have been decent so they could continue.. Snippet from FFC AFD.. THE PROBLEM THEN BECOMES ANOTHER UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPS OVERTHE MID U.S. AND SPREADS MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ARELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY. THE AIRMASSGETS REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MIX OF RAINAND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AND THE OVERALLTRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS TO HOW COLD...TIMING AND ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=FFC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Reading RAH discussion last night the coastal on Sunday as well as potential on Tuesday has there attention- always like to see it when they mention the possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Navgem has shifted way west and now buries central and eastern NC. the northwest trend that these storms do has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 for the late week clippers, para GFS drives the rain/snow line to the rigs in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 for the late week clippers, para GFS drives the rain/snow line to the rigs in the gulf. This is really my hope for CLT to see a few flakes fall. It'll be nice and cold so wouldn't need to worry about mixing. Not that it's going to be enough moisture to accumulate I don't think, but it'll be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 GFS showing love for Friday into Saturday, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Congrats Elizabeth City and Duck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Man, we could be looking at a couple of events this weekend into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Here is the beefed up precip totals for the enhanced clipper/lake effect/arctic snow. This would be with high ratios and super cold air. Could be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Wow, might get a three-peat Friday into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 Another period of light snow on Wednesday with 850's around -12 to -15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.