jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Here is my outlook. I was looking at supercell composite parameter values, as well as surface based CAPE values, for the different forecast hours tomorrow (Tuesday.) Threat-wise, I think it is at least a 15% wind/5% tornado risk, if not higher. (Not trying to go crazy here, but maybe 10% tornado risk.) I think there is a minor threat of severe weather north of the Ohio River. My best guess for supercell activity in northeast Mississippi is based off the 4km NAM reflectivity, and the area where the CAPE/shear/helicity is the highest. This includes a considerable 0-3km SRH of 400 m2/s2 in northeast Mississippi, up to Nashville. Dew points should max out in the upper 60's at the Mississippi/Alabama border. Sounds and looks reasonable,thanks for your input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 Great wind fields with low instability is like winter storm low press swinging through Georgia and the Carolinas while our 850 temps are +2C. Oh but things can change. If the surface heats up better than forecast the CAPE LI and EHI will respond accordingly. I am not really excited about that prospect, but anything can happen. Basically the mid levels are a touch warm on the sounding. It is true upstream; and, it should advect in here for Tuesday. Keep in mind the parent system has been trending north for 48 hours now. All the splicing of levels and/or indices aside, a quick look at fundamentals helps. Low press going through Wisconsin is just not the same as going through Illinois for Mid South mayhem. SPC looks good at ENH; no MDT unless instability spikes. I am not going to lose any sleep over this. Event would be totally un-chasable with high storm speeds and possibly best low-level mesoscale details toward dark. I never like a big outbreak in a populated area anyway. Prefer local set-ups impacting far fewer people. All my skepticism aside, I am thrilled to see so much interest in this thread. Great to see the list of members interested in severe weather is growing! Gonna get windy,i like watching the trees bend,as long as they don't bend on my house or on the power lines..lol URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 250 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...CREATING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SOME SPOTS. NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-021000- /O.NEW.KMRX.WI.Y.0003.160202T2100Z-160203T1500Z/ CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA... LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT... BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE... MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY... GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON... ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE... MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP... PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE... COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON... DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON... ABINGDON 250 PM EST MON FEB 1 2016 /150 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016/ ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY. * EVENT...SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS * TIMING...LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN...AND UNSECURED OUTDOOR OBJECTS MAY BE BLOWN OVER. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 1, 2016 Author Share Posted February 1, 2016 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN322 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHTCST TUESDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERNPLAINS AND PUSH A WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS MIDDLETENNESSEE AS THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS PROGRESS. AS A STRONG COLDFRONT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTOTHE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS TUESDAY MORNINGPROGRESSES ALSO...A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOMEESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MID STATE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZYSOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 50 MPH EXPECTED FROMTHE MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH THE EVENINGHOURS. TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-021000-/O.NEW.KOHX.WI.Y.0001.160202T1500Z-160203T0600Z/STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI322 PM CST MON FEB 1 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CSTTUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINDADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHTCST TUESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING...9 AM CST TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH. * IMPACTS...DOWNED SMALL TREES AND OR DOWNED TREE LIMBS ALONG WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDSTHIS STRONG MAY BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES OR TREE LIMBS AND CAUSEISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING MAY ALSO BECOME DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I wish I could be more interested in this system, but I just don't see any potential in it for the East TN Valley. It is MUCH better to observe from a safe distance. At about 4:15 the morning of April 27, 2011 a tornado-warned storm knocked out my electricity (among other things) for the next four days. No internet or TV. Two days later I was sent down to Phil Campbell without knowing how bad it was. That was something I never want to see again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0701 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS MS...AL...TN...KY...AND SRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA...FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST TO THE LWR OH VLY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS...FROM THE GULF CST INTO THE MID-OH VLY... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES --- A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG --- ARE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... POTENT KS UPR LOW AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE INTO WI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE SYSTEM DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS. AT THE SAME TIME...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NW MEXICO SHOULD SHEAR ENE INTO TX THIS EVE...AND INTO THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS EARLY WED...AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK TRACKS SE INTO AZ/NM. KS SFC LOW SHOULD FURTHER OCCLUDE AS IT CONTINUES ENE INTO NRN MO THIS EVE AND TO LK MI BY 12Z WED. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP NE INTO THE LWR OH VLY EARLY TNGT...WHILE TRAILING SRN PORTION ADVANCES SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SW LA THIS EVE...AND TO NEAR MOB BY 12Z WED. MEANWHILE...W-E WARM FRONT NOW OVER AR AND THE MID-SOUTH SHOULD ACCELERATE/RE-FORM NWD THROUGH THE DAY...REACHING S CNTRL IL AND SW IND BY LATE AFTN...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS THE MID-OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED. ...LWR MS TO LWR-MID OH VLY TODAY/TNGT... SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES...APPEARS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT OVER PARTS OF LWR MS...TN...AND LWR OH VLYS. COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE /WITH PW INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/ AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD /WITH 500 MB SW FLOW AOA 75 KTS/ ATOP BROADENING WARM SECTOR ON SE SIDE OF KS UPR SYSTEM WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS...AND POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED. MORNING RAOBS OVER THE LWR MS VLY...AND WELL-DEFINED...EWD-MOVING BORE OVER SRN MO/AR...INDICATE PRESENCE OF STOUT CAP/INHIBITION LAYER THAT LIKELY WILL DELAY ONSET OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION OVER MOST OF WARM SECTOR TIL POSSIBLY MID TO LATE AFTN. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF MODEST DAYTIME HEATING AND HEIGHT FALLS CLOSE TO UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A BAND OR TWO SFC-BASED TSTMS ALONG AND POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM S CNTRL IL SSW INTO PARTS OF SE MO...FAR NE AR AND WRN TN. LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS...WITH CONSIDERABLE 0-1 SRH PROVIDED BY SLIGHTLY BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW...AND INCREASING MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW-LVL MESOCYCLONES AND TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN MS. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EVOLVE INTO BROKEN LINE SEGMENTS WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DMGG WIND FROM EMBEDDED LEWPS THROUGH LATE EVE E/NE INTO MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL KY. FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F/ AND CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER ERN MS AND WRN AL. GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF LOW-LVL FORCING...SOME LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS COULD EVOLVE THERE. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW-LVL VEERING WIND PROFILES...THESE TOO WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR TORNADOES INTO EARLY TNGT. FINALLY...OTHER STORMS SHOULD FORM BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG EWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVER WRN MS. THESE STORMS ALSO WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LASTING MESOCYCLONES AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF NW MEXICO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL STRENGTHEN LOW TO MID-LVL FLOW THIS EVE INTO TNGT OVER MS AND AL...AND MAY YIELD A SVR THREAT THAT LINGERS LATER INTO TNGT/EARLY WED THAN OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CASE. ..CORFIDI/PICCA.. 02/02/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It is MUCH better to observe from a safe distance. At about 4:15 the morning of April 27, 2011 a tornado-warned storm knocked out my electricity (among other things) for the next four days. No internet or TV. Two days later I was sent down to Phil Campbell without knowing how bad it was. That was something I never want to see again. This is a great point and one I know I tend to forget at times. A friend of my ex-wife rode out Hurricane Hugo in SC in 1989...and to paraphrase his comment "I thought it was a good idea until the roof started bouncing up and down on the house." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 The wind fields look good later on.Just looked at TYS on the HRRR showing some 70kts@ 850mb.Last NAM 4k looks the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The wind fields look good later on.Just looked at TYS on the HRRR showing some 70kts@ 850mb.Last NAM 4k looks the same Sun beaming through my office window in Florence, Al. unfortunately. It's already 65 degrees with a dew point of 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Sun beaming through my office window in Florence, Al. unfortunately. It's already 65 degrees with a dew point of 61. Yeah my stinking garage door the rollers when i shut went pop,pop,pop this morn.It's all screwed up and hanging on by a needle.Hopefully it gets fixed in time,what i time to screw up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0072 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0954 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN AR...SERN MO...SRN IL...WRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021554Z - 021730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WHICH COULD COMMENCE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 17-18Z. DISCUSSION...STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID TO UPPER JET STREAK /100+ KT AT 500 MB/ NOW NOSING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...GRADUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE NOW UNDERWAY SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING. AS THIS CONTINUES...ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COOLING...COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING INHIBITION. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AUGMENTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL BY SURFACE HEATING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INCLUDE INTENSIFICATION OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION...AND DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF IT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. AND STRONG TO EXTREME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS MAY SUPPORT LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT PROBABLY WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHEASTWARD WITH WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It is MUCH better to observe from a safe distance. At about 4:15 the morning of April 27, 2011 a tornado-warned storm knocked out my electricity (among other things) for the next four days. No internet or TV. Two days later I was sent down to Phil Campbell without knowing how bad it was. That was something I never want to see again. I became a weather spotter last February, and I haven't been able to report one thing yet to MRX. I'd like to at least be able to report something, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kperk014 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 I became a weather spotter last February, and I haven't been able to report one thing yet to MRX. I'd like to at least be able to report something, lol. Oh, ok. I understand. Maybe you'll get one that goes through a wilderness area up there so no one will get hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Oh, ok. I understand. Maybe you'll get one that goes through a wilderness area up there so no one will get hurt. As Jeff said, the only thing East TN will be getting out of this system is good sleeping weather, and that's my take as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Going to shatter our all time high for the date at BNA OF 71,hrrr is showing 75 at 1 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Going to shatter our all time high for the date at BNA OF 71,hrrr is showing 75 at 1 PM It's 65 right now in Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 9 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1220 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WESTERN TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1220 PM UNTIL 700 PM CST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF OWENSBORO KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The sun has been out frequently in Polk County today. My truck thermometer showed 77 a few minutes ago. It's cooler in Chattanooga, where clouds and mist were socked in all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 The sun has been out frequently in Polk County today. My truck thermometer showed 77 a few minutes ago. It's cooler in Chattanooga, where clouds and mist were socked in all morning. Same for Knox County. There's some thin high clouds, but for the most part, it's been sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Some large hail being shown over Henderson 1.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Some large hail being shown over Henderson 1.7" Wow, I'm glad we don't have to worry about that tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Tornado over Lexington from that cell coming from Henderson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Cell above Clarksburg look more impressive than Lexington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 It actually feels toasty in Knoxville. I'm surprised with all of this sun and heat that we won't have enough instability for really bad storms. MRX has the current temperature at McGee Tyson Airport at 73 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Long track cell in Ms is coming back to life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Close to Pheba,Ms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 2, 2016 Author Share Posted February 2, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Mississippi is getting slammed. Anybody surprised? Actually they always had the best forecast for rotating storms, with the combination of instability and shear. Temperatures and dewpoints met expectations. Couple 70 dews mixed out to 68, not a surprise this windy, but it is moist up to 850 and the line is already rolling. Western Tennessee has almost as much instability and impressive wind shear. Should be good for some high straight line winds; isolated tornado threat too. Farther east the I-65 corridor temps and dews are also on track, but those dews are lower than west, which may not be enough for big time severe. Should line up for some strong winds, but probably not tornadoes. Hi-Res models always differentiated between the Mississippi Valley and I-65 corridor, despite rumblings of I-65 lighting up on a convergence zone. Only the farther west area had the following forecast: slightly elevated updraft helicity with some cells; locally higher/backed 925 mb winds near cells; and, some of the supercell/tornado parameters locally higher. Both areas of interest had boundary enhancement other than the main front. Synoptic warm front lifted through West Tenn into Kentucky, leaving behind residual local helicity. Looks like a subtle pre-frontal trough in Mississippi, which is quite different from the convergence zone in Alabama. Mississippi boundary may be subtle but it is sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 There could be a significant wind event along the mountains and adjacent areas of East TN tonight. A strong LLJ will shift into the mountains this evening, along with a favorable wind profile and stable boundary layer near the mountains. The NAM also indicates that a temperature inversion may develop around 850mb over that area. All of this suggests a strong downslope/mountain wave event, with possible damaging wind gusts in the usual areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 We now have a new record High in Knoxville. It's 75 degrees, which breaks the previous record of 74, which was set in 1989. What I find interesting is that while it's extremely warm in Knoxville, the dew point and humidity are unimpressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2016 Share Posted February 2, 2016 Preliminary tornado report from Newton, Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.