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February 2016 Forecasts/Disco/Obs


snowman19

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Because, as far as I've seen, analog-based seasonal forecasts are not particularly accurate (or worse). I've yet to see any published data showing anyone doing much better than climatology (unlike, for example, Dr. Gray's tropical season forecasts, which are somewhat better than climo). I'm happy to be proven wrong on that - is there anyone out there who has predicted national or even regional seasonal forecasts for winter which are significantly better than climatology over at least a 10 year period (anyone can be right for a 2-3 year stretch, just by plain luck)?

You are correct. all those pretty graphs ect are nothing but a waste of time year after year . Sure one year they may get it right but that's blind luck . I have been against the outlooks for years and nobody has proven me wrong yet .

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Because, as far as I've seen, analog-based seasonal forecasts are not particularly accurate (or worse).  I've yet to see any published data showing anyone doing much better than climatology (unlike, for example, Dr. Gray's tropical season forecasts, which are somewhat better than climo).  I'm happy to be proven wrong on that - is there anyone out there who has predicted national or even regional seasonal forecasts for winter which are significantly better than climatology over at least a 10 year period (anyone can be right for a 2-3 year stretch, just by plain luck)?  

 

There are forecasters who have done better than the 50/50 coin flip. I started winter outlooks 10 years ago, and summer outlooks in 2008. You can search through my website and decide for yourself if you'd like. But my assessment is approximately 75% have been hits (18 outlooks total; 7/8 summer hits, and 7/10 winter hits).

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