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snowman19

February 2016 Forecasts/Disco/Obs

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Mt holly has me 54 and 52 for the upcoming weekend...I thought we were cooling down heading into February?

I hesitate to feed the troll, however, it's the end of February for starters and we saw some of the coldest temps in years towards the middle of the month. February has featured a warm beginning and warm end with very cold temps in between. 

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Mt holly has me 54 and 52 for the upcoming weekend...I thought we were cooling down heading into February?

the modeled cold snap for the weekend went poof.   Looks warm through at least 3/1 or 3/2 now.

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Another major rainer day 8-9.

GFS dumps 6 inches of rain in spots over the next 10 days

 

All this with awesome teleconnections.

verbatim it's the GFS past day 5, so have to take that for what it's worth, but with no NAO help and a strong WAR, cutters seem like the most likely option.

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GFS dumps 6 inches of rain in spots over the next 10 days

 

verbatim it's the GFS past day 5, so have to take that for what it's worth, but with no NAO help and a strong WAR, cutters seem like the most likely option.

The pattern is great for storms but without blocking they are going to be cutters. 

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The pattern is great for storms but without blocking they are going to be cutters. 

I agree unless we can get the PV perfectly situated then we could get something that doesn't cut, but I agree cutter city, this looks almost like a strong nina with all the cutters

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I agree unless we can get the PV perfectly situated then we could get something that doesn't cut, but I agree cutter city, this looks almost like a strong nina with all the cutters

That means more cutters for next winter if nina truly arrives

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If the Nina comes the days of NYC/LI being the local sweet spot are over.

 

depends.  2010-11 was awesome however 98-99 sucked big time-cutter city that winter

wasnt 95/96 a weak la nina?

it was.

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The Western Atlantic Ridge continues to run the table. The Arctic shot that the Euro was 

showing for the weekend a few days ago just vanished as stronger ridging builds in.

February will finish up warmer than it was looking even a few days ago as the models

continue to underestimate the WAR.

 

Old Euro run

 

 

New Euro run

 

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GFS is cutter after cutter and fairly mild out to day 10

Gfs had been all over. I remember saying week or so ago, look at first week of March. Snow storm after storm showing up. Then it would just show cutters. Then it showed snow chances again

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Brutal 12z runs today. Looks like March will be cutter after cutter. Looks like we might torch later in March I hope

might torch sooner than that if the WAR has its way.  Even the past 3 days were well above guidance for highs

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Brutal 12z runs today. Looks like March will be cutter after cutter. Looks like we might torch later in March I hope

 

NYC would have under 10 inches of snow on the season to date if it wasn't for that lucky Kara block

building across the pole and tanking the AO in January. But it made the difference between a 40

degree winter with little snow and the heaviest daily snowfall pushing NYC above 30". This will

probably go down as the luckiest snowfall season on record for NYC.

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NYC would have under 10 inches of snow on the season to date if it wasn't for that lucky Kara block

building across the pole and tanking the AO in January. But it made the difference between a 40

degree winter with little snow and the heaviest daily snowfall pushing NYC above 30". This will

probably go down as the luckiest snowfall season on record for NYC.

Pulled a rabbit out of our hat! Could be a lot worse we could be well below avg like Orh in sne or parts of NNE that don't even have snow cover

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What was the coldest temp for the warmest winter ever in NYC? Would be interesting to have warmest met winter but also a record low of -1 at the park

 

We beat both the snowfall and low temperature records by a wide margin for warmest winters in NYC over 40 degrees.

 

 

DJF temp....year....snowfall....winter minimum temperature

 

41.5..........01-02.......3.5"..............19

40.5..........11-12.......7.4"..............13

40.4..........15-16......31.2".............-1....through February 22nd

40.1..........31-32.......5.3".............18

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We beat both the snowfall and low temperature records by a wide margin for warmest winters in NYC over 40 degrees.

 

 

DJF temp....year....snowfall....winter minimum temperature

 

41.5..........01-02.......3.5"..............19

40.5..........11-12.......7.4"..............13

40.4..........15-16......31.2".............-1....through February 22nd

40.1..........31-32.......5.3".............18

 

I wonder if the activists, media, and masses were screaming global warming in 1931-32

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There's an enormous difference between the warmth in winter 1931-32 (regional) and that of the current winter (global).

 

Global02232016.jpg

this year was an inferno globally along with oceans well above normal.   La nina will dent that for sure, but we are definitely warming globally

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