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GHD III possible Winter Storm February 1st-3rd


Thundersnow12

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One thing to watch as SSC mentioned in other thread, with the clipper to the north forcing confluence to the east and a flatter track at that point. If the clipper is quicker and stronger this would help out those to the south and east. Stronger to me would be more questionable, quicker though won't be as clippers tend to move faster than model projection this far in advance.

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8 long days to go. What a difference 24 hrs makes. Yesterday's 12z Euro showed about 18" here and a top 3 all-time storm. Now we're stuck with the GFS op run.

Hype and meltdowns guaranteed.

 

IMO the model agreement on the western trough and potent h5 vort ejecting from the Rockies says hedge towards stronger / more organized solutions but with the raging nino jet you really have to wonder if the trough will be able to dig enough to allow a proper bomb.

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Threat definitely looks best for the west at this juncture. Still, seems like there are 3 smaller systems in play before the main show around Groundhog Day, all of which will affect track/placement.

The first being the system 12-24 hours out (seems to be locked in at this point). The second is the Jan 28-29 clipper, which has a chance to go sub 995mb and finally the more strung out clipper on the 30th-31st. Moving parts galore.

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