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Central PA - February 2016


MAG5035

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Have a new thread ready to go for discussion of the upcoming pattern. Right now it looks quiet, with things looking to go zonal and warm up later this week. Next storm threat might be D8-10, but looks like a cutter in the very early going. Models  advertising a pretty strong high over the top of it, so always possible this comes south in time. But looks kinda meh the next week or two with the NAO/AO swinging positive and running a bit of a +EPO.

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Post mortem -

 

- #2 all time for Lancaster.  Did not quite eclipse 1996.

- Fabulous job by the red taggers sharing information and thoughts.  Nice to have a place to check out the real story.

- Props to most models.  They had this one sniffed out a week in advance.  Pretty impressive.

- I have somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 tons of snow to move today.  Next door neighbor is trapped on vacation in Mexico (gee, tough break) so 2 driveways to open :-(

- Congratulations to all those who broke their all time records.  When we're all old and gray (at least those who aren't there already), this will be the source of those "remember when..." stories.

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Then you look at your car buried and think where do I begin...LMAO.

 

 

We all went out yesterday when we were at about the 10" mark and cleaned everything up. It may be double work, but it doesn't feel as overwhelming as it would had we waited and had to clean the whole 20 inches today.

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It seems that all the global models are showing a storm along and off the coast for the 29th time frame. They're all out to sea at the moment, but the storm is there. Time will tell what the outcome will be. Do we lose it altogether, does it stay a fish storm, or does it ride the coast and we get another one, be it rain, snow, or a mix?

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Where I live at I didn't see a single snowflake yesterday. And that's how this storm will be remembered by me. I was impressed by the really sharp cutoff it had. 30 miles away 14"

It will be interesting in the weeks/years to come seeing the discussions and theory about this storm.

Sunny 14 degrees cold here this morning. Gonna smoke some wings today.

post-2236-0-65940100-1453640822_thumb.jp

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even if  we didn't get crippling storms here, it was fun to watch. It also shows the fickleness of weather. The most amazing part for me was not the amount of snow but how the models showed a huge cutoff days out. Living on the edge has really tested my patience and my "forecasting skills". for the last few days I was telling the my team at work ( I am a member of the disaster planning team) that 4 to 8 inches was a real possibility.  

 

When is the next storm??? we are only 10 inches behind...

 

Also mark your calendars 9 months from now there will be a baby boom.

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What a crazy storm this ended up being from a meteorological stand point and just the entire scale of impact on the social side. Many places will be buried for days with a long wait for some areas to even see a plow. This is one for the record books across the board and really happy that most people cashed in. 

 

That being said, I want to apologize for the pathetic forecast I gave for almost the entire sub forum. This was a valuable lesson in discounting a model (In this case the NAM) because of my opinion of it being inferior. Despite the fact the NAM kept coming with a northern shift, I kept discounting which is a big no no and no excuse on my part as a meteorologist and forecaster. I feel bummed on how bad I screwed this one up for you guys north of Rt 30 up to I80. I had a good overall handle on things south of 30 since that's the area I grew up and are accustomed to, but still, I need to be better and take a hint when a model isn;t jumping around and was as rock steady as the NAM was. I give a round of applause to that guidance. That and the GFS were on their game. Hope y'all can trust me next time for my opinion.

 

On another note, will have the snowfall contest up to date by this afternoon and will put out a summary so far after the big event. Some people just got a real good start to that one haha

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What a crazy storm this ended up being from a meteorological stand point and just the entire scale of impact on the social side. Many places will be buried for days with a long wait for some areas to even see a plow. This is one for the record books across the board and really happy that most people cashed in. 

 

That being said, I want to apologize for the pathetic forecast I gave for almost the entire sub forum. This was a valuable lesson in discounting a model (In this case the NAM) because of my opinion of it being inferior. Despite the fact the NAM kept coming with a northern shift, I kept discounting which is a big no no and no excuse on my part as a meteorologist and forecaster. I feel bummed on how bad I screwed this one up for you guys north of Rt 30 up to I80. I had a good overall handle on things south of 30 since that's the area I grew up and are accustomed to, but still, I need to be better and take a hint when a model isn;t jumping around and was as rock steady as the NAM was. I give a round of applause to that guidance. That and the GFS were on their game. Hope y'all can trust me next time for my opinion.

 

On another note, will have the snowfall contest up to date by this afternoon and will put out a summary so far after the big event. Some people just got a real good start to that one haha

 

No need to apologize, Millville.  With every big storm there comes a learning experience.  I certainly appreciate (and I know everyone else does too) your professional expertise and commentary in our subforum.  Hopefully you can share some of the aspects of what you learn about model behavior, etc, with us going forward.  You can tell us what the opinions of your colleagues might have been and what ultimately led you to draw the conclusions that you did for your forecasts.  We all want to learn and to keep on learning as we just enjoy our perpetual weenieness.

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What a crazy storm this ended up being from a meteorological stand point and just the entire scale of impact on the social side. Many places will be buried for days with a long wait for some areas to even see a plow. This is one for the record books across the board and really happy that most people cashed in. 

 

That being said, I want to apologize for the pathetic forecast I gave for almost the entire sub forum. This was a valuable lesson in discounting a model (In this case the NAM) because of my opinion of it being inferior. Despite the fact the NAM kept coming with a northern shift, I kept discounting which is a big no no and no excuse on my part as a meteorologist and forecaster. I feel bummed on how bad I screwed this one up for you guys north of Rt 30 up to I80. I had a good overall handle on things south of 30 since that's the area I grew up and are accustomed to, but still, I need to be better and take a hint when a model isn;t jumping around and was as rock steady as the NAM was. I give a round of applause to that guidance. That and the GFS were on their game. Hope y'all can trust me next time for my opinion.

 

On another note, will have the snowfall contest up to date by this afternoon and will put out a summary so far after the big event. Some people just got a real good start to that one haha

This was literally impossible to forecast up here. Wes and Will, great mets like yourself, thought MDT would be lucky to get 8".

No one on this planet expected us to get a record storm, much less 30.2". That's once in a generation stuff.

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