Lessons Learned - what we can learn from the Jan 22/23 snowstorm/blizzard

[Jet Stream Rider]

Could somebody post a map with the true track of the ULL as well as the SLP from this storm?  Would like to get an idea of how that really finalized.

 

Basically this, but anyone can please correct or add as needed.

 

We got a coastal low around Savannah, but it was weak and not phased. It raced north (compared to the slow moving primary as it crawled through MS, AL,and GA earlier in the day) to about Cape Fear and then indeed came inland through the sounds of NC to a position off shore of Norfolk. The weak  and diffuse ULL (it never closed off) then joined it and it phased there and pulled away.

 

We need the phase to occur sooner (or at least the Coastal take over and the ull close) and stay off shore slightly.

[WeatherNC]

I learned that I have to travel to see a meaningful crush job.

[frazdaddy]

I learned its smart to be friendly with your neighbors. You never know when you might need to borrow a frontend loader. 

[wncsnow]

Danville is the sleet capital of Virginia

[tarheelwx]

DCA needs a GPS tracking device on their snow (measuring) board!

TW

[packfan98]

NAM and RGEM are great models to use when dealing with mixing issues.  Several runs of the RGEM showed 3-4 inches of sleet for me and that's exactly what I got.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The analogs posted here on the eve of the storm were on point

 

 

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/26/snowzillas-striking-similarity-to-the-blizzard-of-1996/

[mackerel_sky]

Cold air is still and always will be , more important than precip! I wasted 1.7 QPF on rain, waiting on the wedge

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Some really great post mortem here. The cold was really stout at 2m in the Triad, soVA, and the western Triangle.  The models almost always underestimate the potency of CAD in these regions. 

[tarheelwx]

I started this thread last year when GSO ended up with 3-4" of sleet and snow when many of the models were well into the double digits and all snow.  I guess I should have posted this 3 or 4 days ago since most of the lessons applied to the current storm as well.  How soon we forget. 

TW

[No snow for you]

We will never learn. It's different this time. 

[tarheelwx]

Ha!  Did you see the 2nd comment on the entire thread......... "Believe the NAM when it has a strong warm nose". 

TW

[superjames1992]

On 1/23/2016 at 3:50 PM, superjames1992 said:

CAD is usually underdone and doesn't get eroded as fast as expected.

 

The NAM picks up on warm noses well in the mid-levels.

 

Don't trust the QPF, at least for Miller Bs.

 

Always pay attention to warm noses above 850 mb (in our case, we had a bad one from 750-850 mb, which the NAM nailed).

All of these were basically applicable to this storm as well (except for the CAD).