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Central PA Jan 22-24 "The NortheastPAWx Special" storm obs/banter


canderson

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NAM for President

It saw NYC getting the crush job also. I have to say, when the SREF runs broke into 2 distinct camps and each run they lost members from the shutout camp I figured the NAM might have been on to something. The SREF members would defect going from <.05 qpf to >1.5" and once defected never went back in future runs. Now, in retrospect, I wonder if we can piece together what exactly it was that NAM latched onto in the upper air that other models were not seeing.

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It saw NYC getting the crush job also. I have to say, when the SREF runs broke into 2 distinct camps and each run they lost members from the shutout camp I figured the NAM might have been on to something. The SREF members would defect going from <.05 qpf to >1.5" and once defected never went back in future runs. Now, in retrospect, I wonder if we can piece together what exactly it was that NAM latched onto in the upper air that other models were not seeing.

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sounds like a research paper for someone, especially since I could see a couple of papers coming out for the storm in general.

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one of the items with this storm though that should be looked into other than the model performance is how sharp the actual gradient in snow amounts was. this storm had a much sharper gradient than most storms of this type, at least in my observation. After all, going 0.5" to 8" in 8 miles like happened in Lackawanna County? 2" to 20"+ in about a 30 mile stretch near Columbia County? 1" in Exeter to 18" down just south of Hazleton in ~30 mi? 5" in Milton to 16" in Sunbury just 10 miles away ?

 

when does anyone hear about that dramatic a snow gradient outside of Lake-effect events? I don't remember that many with anything close, personally. But I'm sure you guys might remember a few more.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=201601240016

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=201601232308

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one of the items with this storm though that should be looked into other than the model performance is how sharp the actual gradient in snow amounts was. this storm had a much sharper gradient than most storms of this type, at least in my observation. After all, going 0.5" to 8" in 8 miles like happened in Lackawanna County? 2" to 20"+ in about a 30 mile stretch near Columbia County? 1" in Exeter to 18" down just south of Hazleton in ~30 mi? 5" in Milton to 16" in Sunbury just 10 miles away ?

 

when does anyone hear about that dramatic a snow gradient outside of Lake-effect events? I don't remember that many with anything close, personally. But I'm sure you guys might remember a few more.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=201601240016

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=201601232308

A paper on these sharp gradients in general the last several years would be something. It's amazing that these have become the norm.

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one of the items with this storm though that should be looked into other than the model performance is how sharp the actual gradient in snow amounts was. this storm had a much sharper gradient than most storms of this type, at least in my observation. After all, going 0.5" to 8" in 8 miles like happened in Lackawanna County? 2" to 20"+ in about a 30 mile stretch near Columbia County? 1" in Exeter to 18" down just south of Hazleton in ~30 mi? 5" in Milton to 16" in Sunbury just 10 miles away ?

 

when does anyone hear about that dramatic a snow gradient outside of Lake-effect events? I don't remember that many with anything close, personally. But I'm sure you guys might remember a few more.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSBGM&e=201601240016

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSCTP&e=201601232308

 

 

Hey Jim,

 

 

I do not remember the exact year but 10-15 years ago a similar gradient happened to the very area that was just crushed.  MDT was under a Winter Storm Warning for I think 8-12" and got not a single flake while areas JUST to the east, maybe as close as Salunga, ended up with warning criteria snow.  One of the largest busts in LSV weather history. 

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Hey Jim,

 

 

I do not remember the exact year but 10-15 years ago a similar gradient happened to the very area that was just crushed.  MDT was under a Winter Storm Warning for I think 8-12" and got not a single flake while areas JUST to the east, maybe as close as Salunga, ended up with warning criteria snow.  One of the largest busts in LSV weather history. 

30 December 2000? That one was very narrow...Poconos had I think 12"+ while 81 corridor had nothing.

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THat seems a bit high, I am less than 2 miles away and we had less than 5. Unless they got under one of the hazleton bands. they had a lot more that we did.

from what I understand from her, maybe she did. that section of Nanticoke is kinda weird compared to say the difference between Honey Pot and downtown Nanticoke. from what she also said from some other friends she has that I don't, out by Ricketts Glen they literally got just a coating while interior sections of Hunlocks Creek got like 6". my former band director from HS got just a few flakes, not even a coating in Tunkhannock. I am seeing a spotter report in Sugar Notch of 6" and 4" in Shavertown. just a really unusual distribution.

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Well guys, I'm calling it a night.  Now that the adrenaline is gone I'm toast.

 

Officially, I recorded 0.2" additional snowfall since 6:00 giving me a final storm total of 35.0".  I will come back in the morning to give the wrap-up on all the storm stats.  They're nearly the same as what I gave at my 5:00 board clearing obs.

 

Props to my son also who posted the great pics and timelapse video.  He's camped out tonight again at his friend's house as neither of us is going anywhere on the roads tonight.  I have no clue when the plows will come through.  Until then we're all stuck. 

 

Pleasant weenie dreams to all...

 

Stephen

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