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Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
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The worst part will be for the sad person who gets under that 35dbz deform band on radar, only to see -SN/--SN falling as the radar is hitting those echoes at 10-15,000ft and the snow is actually falling in the town to the south.  You're going to want that band to be a few miles north of you and you're golden.

 

I'm pretty confident that will be me

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CCHurricane

CCHurricane

Posted
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Nah. I think 6-10" is probable for you. A little tick either direction will make a difference though.

 

 

How much so - is the coast affected?

 

If anything, NYC and southwestern CT luck out as of now...

 

The coast is very much affected, relative to the previous runs of course. Boston comes crashing back to 2-4 inches, and the 16-24 inch projections are gone from Southeastern New England/RI.

 

6-10 as mentioned above is the most likely outcome.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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If anything, NYC and southwestern CT luck out as of now...

The coast is very much affected, relative to the previous runs of course. Boston comes crashing back to 2-4 inches, and the 16-24 inch projections are gone from Southeastern New England/RI.

6-10 as mentioned above is the most likely outcome. (21z vs. 15z below)

AWT. Hope nobody fell for the mesos. Enjoy virga.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Snow well ahead of schedule into Philly and Monmouth Cty , NJ. NAM nailed it in Virginia. Bumps will continue tonight

 

I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM comes back to the pack tonight. We are honing in on a pretty decent consensus and we are starting to see some models hold serve for a few runs. The GFS is not one of them of course.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I wouldn't be surprised if the NAM comes back to the pack tonight. We are honing in on a pretty decent consensus and we are starting to see some models hold serve for a few runs. The GFS is not one of them of course.

I won't be surprised if tonight's models get better for the south coast and worse for those inland.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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Posted

I won't be surprised if tonight's models get better for the south coast and worse for those inland.

 

You can see the band starting to get resolved on the models. Looks like it just reaches the south coast, I agree, and I could quite possibly be smoking exhaust the entire time. The NAM is really the only model that continues to push it strongly through the CT/MA border.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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You can see the band starting to get resolved on the models. Looks like it just reaches the south coast, I agree, and I could quite possibly be smoking exhaust the entire time. The NAM is really the only model that continues to push it strongly through the CT/MA border.

I don't believe there's any chance of that . Every model gets measurable to or past the border
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highways1

highways1

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I won't be surprised if tonight's models get better for the south coast and worse for those inland.

 

Yes, it appears the one takeaway from today's runs is a sharpening of the gradient on the northern edge. Looks like anyone 30-50 miles or so south of the gradient is going to get hammered overnight into tomorrow morning.

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