Meteorological Super Bowl During AFC Championship? 1/23-1/24, Part II

[OceanStWx]

The models have been playing catchup with the larger ULL/mid-level moisture feed in that area...the globals in NNJ/NYC area were pretty putrid yesterday but now there's pretty good consensus of a big hit. The risky blizzard watches put out yesterday are looking good from OKX.

 

I feel like the same thing will happen further northeast along the south coast...

 

Just looking at mid levels, you can see why we're playing with fire. Most of SNE is basically relying on H7 for the goods. Based on heights and theta-e it looks like the NAM and GFS bring most into the TROWAL. The south coast gets pretty close to the H8 moisture feed, so that's why there is a larger potential there.

[HoarfrostHubb]

If Scott S was here we would have two closed threads by now. Lol, RIP

This would be an awesome event for him to chime in on.  Really miss that guy

[JC-CT]

Yeah - if I was back home around HVN I would be pretty pumped about this one.

 

I could definitely see 0" here and nearly a foot down there. 

 

This could be one of the more painful ones to watch but it is what it is. I agree that a sharp gradient along the south coast is likely, redevelopment further east is still a question mark.

[JC-CT]

Lol. Good luck with that forecast. You aren't getting 0

 

What is your forecast for WHFD and KTOL.

[Hoth]

BTV WRF has a real good OES signal for near BOS and especially south into PYM county.

You could kind of see that sig on the GFS too.

[HullMA]

We really only have Puerto Rico to help us there. Unless it's a US territory we can't really ask them to launch extra balloons.

Definitely. I wonder if the missing piece to the puzzle lies there. I think we rely on the models far too heavily. I remember one time when i was a kid around maybe 94-98. We were forecast about 3-5 inches in cohasset ma. We ended up getting nearly 18" iirc

[CT Valley Snowman]

I think the shoreline is in business, gradient nay be tight with BDR, HVN 6-9 while HFD north is smoking cirrus.

[Damage In Tolland]

What is your forecast for WHFD and KTOL.

Before we see Ukie and Euro. I think 2-5 is most likely. And 1-3 to at least I-90.This dry air thing is way overblown with that kind of easterly inflow

[Zeus]

Enjoy your NWS forecast of 0 to 23" inches.

 

Not every day you see this about 30 hours out.

[sankaty]

Looks like the GEM ticked north about 20 miles (basically the width of the sound) between 6Z and 12Z south of CT.  I need about 1 or 2 more ticks for northern Middlesex.  I could see it happening, but I could just as easily see us being the last town on the outside looking in.

[Damage In Tolland]

NAVGEM came NW

[JC-CT]

Before we see Ukie and Euro. I think 2-5 is most likely. And 1-3 to at least I-90.This dry air thing is way overblown with that kind of easterly inflow

 

I think your 1-3 to the Pike will crash and burn, personally. But nothing's verified.

[JC-CT]

NAVGEM came NW

 

No it didn't.

[Morch Madness]

Those BOX maps are absolutely ludicrous. I do not envy SNE mets in this storm

[klw]

UVA Webcam (Charlottesville VA)

http://www.virginia.edu/rcam/

 

Virginia traffic cam map site

http://www.511virginia.org/

 

Liberty University web cam page

http://www.liberty.edu/aboutliberty/?PID=24631&cam=residence-hall-2-north

[JC-CT]

Ukie pretty much held serve - would probably verify close to Kevin's totals

[Morch Madness]

UKIE gets .3" up to BOS, a hair better than 0z

[Bryan]

UVA Webcam (Charlottesville VA)

http://www.virginia.edu/rcam/

 

Virginia traffic cam map site

http://www.511virginia.org/

 

Liberty University web cam page

http://www.liberty.edu/aboutliberty/?PID=24631&cam=residence-hall-2-north

 

 

Washington Monument Camera, should be fun to watch in a few.

 

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/washingtonmonument/?cam=wamo

[ORH_wxman]

Ukie for the QPF Queens:

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Another bump north. It's crazy how each global keeps having these incremental increases each run. Catching up to Mesos? Or maybe they meet in the middle ?

[SouthCoastMA]

UKMET is nearly dead nuts..maybe very slightly south of 0z.

[ORH_wxman]

Another bump north. It's crazy how each global keeps having these incremental increases each run. Catching up to Mesos? Or maybe they meet in the middle ?

 

 

It didn't bump north really...it was almost dead on the 00z run...maybe slightly better for pike region but slightly worse for the Cape.

[JC-CT]

Another bump north. It's crazy how each global keeps having these incremental increases each run. Catching up to Mesos? Or maybe they meet in the middle ?

 

It's not really a bump north. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It didn't bump north really...it was almost dead on the 00z run...maybe slightly better for pike region but slightly worse for the Cape.

Yeah that's where my focus lies

[JC-CT]

GEFS pretty much followed OP

[Damage In Tolland]

Ensemble time over

[JC-CT]

Ensemble time over

 

Thanks Dr. Blizz

[CoastalWx]

My issue is Saturday evening. It looks like one final push of the CCB from that vort lobe moving N and NW. I think that happens. Now will this hit eastern and SE areas? This is aside from the H7 fronto band along south coast. My best guess is that the S coastline is getting S+ for a time. I think the banding makes it. My issue is BOS and I can't get a good feel...but it makes me nervous the lift monster lurks just offshore...especially if I were in SE MA.

[ROOSTA]

Believe the NAM cut the precious QPF by 1/3 and there is your GFS.

Can't wish it to happen.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Can any Met talk about the Virga aspect in NCT and the Pike region. I know models are printing out precip but looking at RH values, dews, Pwats, etc I'm wondering if we can saturate fully in that region?