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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Jan 23/24 2016 obs/nowcast - the fight for the North

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Quincy's CT map is pretty good. It's a smoothed out version that gets a general sense of accumulations but there are always exceptions within the color grids.

no one in SECT received 12-18 more like 4-8

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Quincy's CT map is pretty good. It's a smoothed out version that gets a general sense of accumulations but there are always exceptions within the color grids.

I was questioning my 3.4 a little bit but I did drive a couple miles west towards North Thompsonville right by the river yesterday and their did look like there was probably an inch less snow and East Longmeadow and Somers also came in with about 3.5.

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The weird thing about the RI hole is that I've been following wx really closely for a long time, and forecasted by myself for nearly a decade, and the only time I remember seeing it was recently. Probably just a coincidence, 3 times starting with the March 2013 storm. I'm not talking dryslots obviously which they can be prone to...anyone in the SE can be prone...but that ugly standing wave look.

 

I simply do not recall seeing it before March 2013 and I've been a sicko who saves so many radar images over the years.

/ \ / \

THIS

I've lived in the Weekapaug/Shelter Harbor area in the extreme SE portion of Westerly for the past 30 years. (A newbie compared to Ginx's time spent here) but I too have never seen anything like this before March 2013. And I too am a radar watcher.

On Saturday, you could see the hole trying to form in NW RI first in the late afternoon. I had a feeling we were going to experience the hole once again and it seems the snow finally gave up the fight and the hole finally opened up in the early evening. I didn't expect it to be as pronounced or as identical to the March 2013 event however.

What's interesting to note in both March 2013 and Saturday was that the immediate south coast (along Rte.1 and south basically) was able to keep at least light snow going for a while. Bands of snow - although lessening in intensity - continued to move WSW along the coast while areas just to the north were already dry. We held onto varying intensity of snows for at least an hour after areas just to the north were already dry. Not sure if that means anything - but just something else to note if anyone decides to look into this further.

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Voluntown Ct, Rockville RI had 10 so correct

 

I meant the low totals in Stonington. I thought Westerly had like 15.

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I meant the low totals in Stonington. I thought Westerly had like 15.

On the the direct ocean in Weekapaug, further west had 10-11 Ashaway RI, I'd say probably 8 ish on the border, will know at lunch heading that way

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On the the direct ocean in Weekapaug, further west had 10-11 Ashaway RI, I'd say probably 8 ish on the border, will know at lunch heading that way

I would guess about 8 to maybe 10 in Stonington as well. When I left downtown Westerly around 11am on Saturday morning - the snow was just starting to increase, there was little more than a dusting and the roads were just wet - as I got towards Weekapaug/Shelter Harbor - we already had over an inch - it was snowing heavily and the roads were snow covered. Noticeable difference. And as I noted above, we kept snowing along the immediate coast for a while after the RI hole opened up.

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I agree with Will. I grew up in SE MA and watched the weather closely, and I also cannot recall that feature. I feel like you need a deeper standing wave to generate subsidence that deep?

 

I mean clearly there has been no change in the local area that could force this. But I'm guessing there is a very specific set of variables that comes together for this. Lift probably needs to be shallower, maybe even mesoscale subsidence aloft between stronger bands, and clearly outside of WAA precip.

 

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According to Kocin, the prelim rating for this storm on the NESIS scale is 7.49...that would be 5th behind March 1993, January 1996, March 1960, and Feb 2003 (PDII). PDII was a 7.50 rating so the final number may be higher and vault this storm into 4th place.

 

edit: That is Kocin's rating, and not the NCDC NESIS rating. They differ somewhat...PDII is much higher than this one on Kocin's rating so it won't pass that storm.

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On the the direct ocean in Weekapaug, further west had 10-11 Ashaway RI, I'd say probably 8 ish on the border, will know at lunch heading that way

Let me know what you saw, I was fighting with a lack of observations from the area.

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Let me know what you saw, I was fighting with a lack of observations from the area.

Foxwoods 5 Nstonington 7 Pawcatuck 8 Westerly downtown 8 Ashaway 10 Westerly shore 12,all according to reliable friends and pretty much confirmed on my lunch trip to see Mom in the nursing home near downtown Westerly

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Foxwoods 5 Nstonington 7 Pawcatuck 8 Westerly downtown 8 Ashaway 10 Westerly shore 12,all according to reliable friends and pretty much confirmed on my lunch trip to see Mom in the nursing home near downtown Westerly

Thanks, I'll add those to the map in the blog section, but pretty much lines up with the second and final iteration of the map.

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