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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Jan 23/24 2016 obs/nowcast - the fight for the North

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Is there any place you can get model forecast for that

 

For what parameter? ML fronto?

 

Most sites don't have much plots for that, but you can infer it by looking at the wind flags/temps and also VVs. SPC mesonalaysis will plot it. Wright weather plots frontogensis too...I actually wish more sites would do it.

 

 

edit: and see the FSU link that dendrite posted.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0060
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1144 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...MD...ERN PA...NJ...SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

   VALID 231744Z - 232345Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   FROM MD AND ERN PA ENEWD ACROSS NJ INTO SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA WITH
   SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE
   UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NC WITH A POWERFUL 100 TO 120
   KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. A 987 MB SFC
   LOW IS LOCATED 190 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY.
   STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IS OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW IN A
   BAND FROM SE PA EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE
   EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET IS ALSO ENHANCING LIFT. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOW CONDITIONS
   VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH A DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER FROM
   500 TO 600 MB AND AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR AGGREGATION FROM
   700 TO 900 MB. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE JUST TO THE NORTH
   OF A DEFORMATION ZONE LOCATED NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
   RAP KEEPS THIS DEFORMATION ZONE NEARLY STATIONARY WHICH SHOULD KEEP
   A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL NWD EXPANSION FROM NEAR
   INTERSTATE 80 IN ERN PA ENEWD INTO NEW YORK CITY AND ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND ALONG INTERSTATE 95. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE MCD AREA ACROSS ERN PA...NRN NJ INTO THE NEW
   YORK CITY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
   WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE.

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On and off flurries here, I fear I'm a tad too north and west for this one, I'll be happy with solid snow covered from this.

You might be ok with the ban coming up from RI and S Ct

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outside enjoying this, 1/2 new ripping

Yeah that's about what I have, not sure how it comes even close to box's new map

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Its colder out here than 30 indicates, inside the portable garage sitting in a chair having an.ice coffee and thinking about Messenger and what he taught me about watching for models to fill QPF in areas 24 hours ahead. Absolutely textbook example.

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wow, I was on FB messenger phone call with my aunt from Poland for two hours...and I come back to work in the lab and see dxr crushed under a deform band. I went outside, measured 3.5"...cleared the deck....lets make a run at a foot. 

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