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Jan 23/24 2016 obs/nowcast - the fight for the North


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Post mortem -- overall I think we did a pretty good job forecasting this one despite a bust low on the western shoreline and the northeast corner. Really glad we didn't bite on the warning amounts to the MA border like NWS and a few TV stations did.

http://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/post-mortem-1232016-blizzard

Nice site.

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Nice site.

Thanks. Been a labor of love to get it where it is today but it's all worth it when you nail a forecast and tens of thousands of people see it. Not so much fun though when you bust badly and tens of thousands of people see it ;) To be fair though, I've got an awesome team working with me that makes it all possible -- I could never do something of that magnitude alone(I tried for a spell last winter and it didn't work out so well, was basically like working two full time jobs and both suffered as a result).

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Thanks. Been a labor of love to get it where it is today but it's all worth it when you nail a forecast and tens of thousands of people see it. Not so much fun though when you bust badly and tens of thousands of people see it ;) To be fair though, I've got an awesome team working with me that makes it all possible -- I could never do something of that magnitude alone(I tried for a spell last winter and it didn't work out so well, was basically like working two full time jobs and both suffered as a result).

Tell me about.....I do a little blog by myself, it kicks my a$$ when the $hit hits the fan.

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Quincy's CT map is pretty good. It's a smoothed out version that gets a general sense of accumulations but there are always exceptions within the color grids.

I was questioning my 3.4 a little bit but I did drive a couple miles west towards North Thompsonville right by the river yesterday and their did look like there was probably an inch less snow and East Longmeadow and Somers also came in with about 3.5.

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The weird thing about the RI hole is that I've been following wx really closely for a long time, and forecasted by myself for nearly a decade, and the only time I remember seeing it was recently. Probably just a coincidence, 3 times starting with the March 2013 storm. I'm not talking dryslots obviously which they can be prone to...anyone in the SE can be prone...but that ugly standing wave look.

 

I simply do not recall seeing it before March 2013 and I've been a sicko who saves so many radar images over the years.

/ \ / \

THIS

I've lived in the Weekapaug/Shelter Harbor area in the extreme SE portion of Westerly for the past 30 years. (A newbie compared to Ginx's time spent here) but I too have never seen anything like this before March 2013. And I too am a radar watcher.

On Saturday, you could see the hole trying to form in NW RI first in the late afternoon. I had a feeling we were going to experience the hole once again and it seems the snow finally gave up the fight and the hole finally opened up in the early evening. I didn't expect it to be as pronounced or as identical to the March 2013 event however.

What's interesting to note in both March 2013 and Saturday was that the immediate south coast (along Rte.1 and south basically) was able to keep at least light snow going for a while. Bands of snow - although lessening in intensity - continued to move WSW along the coast while areas just to the north were already dry. We held onto varying intensity of snows for at least an hour after areas just to the north were already dry. Not sure if that means anything - but just something else to note if anyone decides to look into this further.

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