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Jan 23/24 2016 obs/nowcast - the fight for the North


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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PM UPDATE...

STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN

AND DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS/JUST SOUTHEAST

OF THE BENCHMARK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM

WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS..COASTAL FLOODING AND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

EAST/WEST SNOWBAND EARLY THIS MORNING THAT WAS OVER LONG ISLAND

THROUGH NANTUCKET HAS BEGUN TO PIVOT AND MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SW

TO NE ORIENTATION. THIS BAND IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE

12Z NAM OMEGA LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND 700 MB F-GEN.

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THIS FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE

NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CT INTO RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS. EXPECT

SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN THE BAND. IN FACT OVER

LONG ISLAND THEY HAD RECEIVED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 3 INCHES AN

HOUR THIS MORNING.

HAVE UPDATED SNOWFALL TOTALS AGAIN AND USED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES

GUIDANCE AND HRRR WITH THE PREV FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE DRY

AIR WILL CUT OFF AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE MASS AND I-84...KEEPING IN

LINE WITH THE SHARP CUT-OFF GRADIENT THAT PREV FORECASTERS HAVE

BEEN MENTIONING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL FEEL COMFORTABLE

WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS WHICH THE LATEST CAN BE FOUND ONLINE.

NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. ON THE FENCE FOR UPGRADING

THE CAPE AND ACK TO A BLIZZARD WARNING BUT BL TEMPS ARE TOO

MARGINAL. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS THAT A QUICK SWITCH OVER TO RAIN OR

EVEN A MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND ACK. SURFACE TEMPS

THERE AND EVEN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF RI ARE ALSO NEAR

FREEZING 32-34 WHICH RESULTS IN A WETTER SNOW. THIS IS NOT

FAVORABLE FOR CONSISTENT VSBYS LESS THEN 1/4SM FOR 3+ HOURS. THIS

HEAVY WEST SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO DOWN TREE LIMBS

AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

12Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. 925 MB JET INCREASES CLOSE TO 45-60 KTS. NAM

EVEN GUSTS TO 70-80 KTS. FEEL GOOD WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR

CAPE/ACK AND WIND ADV FOR ESSEX COUNTY. WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS

COVER THE REMAINING WIND GUST THREAT.

ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRIDGE OF THIS STORM. LOCATIONS

SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS STORM LIGHTLY. HEAVY

BANDING MOVING THROUGH WILL DROP VSBYS DOWN BELOW 1SM AND QUICKLY

DROP 2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO

LIMIT VSBYS. ROADS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL.

&&

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Might as well show the NAM here.

 

What a banding signal the 12z run had for midday.

 

The image is f-gen, the yellow dashed lines deformation, and black lines height. You can see the H7 front extending NNE from the mid level low center, then east from there. And just north of that the perfect combination of factors to produce the banding potential I highlighted.

 

post-44-0-22911500-1453582457_thumb.png

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