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Jan 23/24 2016 obs/nowcast - the fight for the North


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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The best ML frontogenesis is transfering east a bit based on short term guidance and the SPC mesoanalysis....and you can see it on the region loop where the precip shield is intensifying S of RI and SE MA...this will be the area to watch as it pinwheels NW.

 

 

Jan23_1135am_Radar.gif

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The best ML frontogenesis is transfering east a bit based on short term guidance and the SPC mesoanalysis....and you can see it on the region loop where the precip shield is intensifying S of RI and SE MA...this will be the area to watch as it pinwheels NW.

 

 

Jan23_1135am_Radar.gif

I can envision a cut-off for about Union, CT to Boston looking at that RAD.

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The best ML frontogenesis is transfering east a bit based on short term guidance and the SPC mesoanalysis....and you can see it on the region loop where the precip shield is intensifying S of RI and SE MA...this will be the area to watch as it pinwheels NW.

 

Let's see how right the HRRR is. It says the NW edge of precip should start slipping south through CT as that transfer happens off SE MA.

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Can call it steady light snow now. Interestingly..there appears to be a bit of graupel mixed in at the start

Had a few hours with graupel... Times where it predominated.

Perhaps a fuzzy recollection from cloud physics but think it's related to turbulent flow in precip production zone.

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