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January and #HECS2016 Banter Thread


WxUSAF

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WPC ignoring the NAM:

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd

 

SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM IS A NORTHWARD OUTLIER ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING A SLOW OUTLIER THEREAFTER -- THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF
OCCASIONALLY BEING TOO SLOW. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS/12Z
ECMWF/12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET IS PREFERRED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

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OPM made a good call based on guidance but thats a really hard call to make when upwards of 30" is predicted. If predicted timing is off, it could be disastrous.

I'd say they would be better off closing at least an hour earlier.

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I wonder if a Met could comment whether or not the GFS run is even synoptically possible? Can we even get over 4 inches of qpf in a single winter storm?

I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations

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I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations

 

Thanks!

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It would be nice, but the Mid-Atlantic has missed out in recent years. Even if NYC gets very little, this will be an amazing meteorological event. I'm happy to see Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, etc., finally getting a chance to cash in.

 

Thanks, Don.  It is indeed an amazing event...almost scary, to be honest, if it ends up even close to what some of the crazier totals that some of the model runs have been indicating.

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I think if anything, you should take away that there will be very heavy banding as the upper level low moves towards the coast. Where the heavy banding sets up remains in question. Keep in mind also that the GFS is not a small scale model so the coverage of the heavy banding is likely overdone. Tomorrow, the smaller scale, short range models will be useful in determining where it all sets up. My guess would be across northern VA into Montgomery/Frederick/Howard counties and obviously further to the west across the higher elevations

You didn't answer the question ;)

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At 11 Tom T. already said 12-24" and he said with the new guidance coming in he will probably have to up it in the morning.

Cool, Tom has stuck with that the whole time. I don't know if Tony called this on air but this afternoon on social media he was going 12-16" for Baltimore.

Edit:

I think he has been riding the RPM hard.

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I wonder if a Met could comment whether or not the GFS run is even synoptically possible? Can we even get over 4 inches of qpf in a single winter storm?

Sure. It's probably a 500 year event but with climate change, a perky el nino, a full moon and Donald Trump anything is possible.

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