donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Overall some improvements on the northern extent of the snow shield have taken place during the past two runs of the GFS: HPN: 1/22 0z: 0.19" 1/22 6z: 0.49" 1/22 12z: 0.73" POU: 1/22 0z: None 1/22 6z: 0.07" 1/22 12z: 0.17" This expansion of the northern extent is also in reasonable agreement with the 12z RGEM and the 0z ECMWF. Nice increases for NYC, too: JFK: 1/22 0z: 0.85" 1/22 6z: 0.95" 1/22 12z: 1.23" LGA: 1/22 0z: 0.58" 1/22 6z: 0.78" 1/22 12z: 1.14" NYC: 1/22 0z: 0.56" 1/22 6z: 0.76" 1/22 12z: 1.18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 South shore of nyc gets over a foot on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think what we are seeing is the gradient getting sharper to the north of nyc and between nyc and phl qpf going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 GFS is still nothing like the NAM for anyone north of the city.. Wouldn't call it a cave, I'd say it increased QPF Given the trends, I bet it bumps slightly north again a bit at 18z, this is the 3rd run in a row of a slight north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I think what we are seeing is the gradient getting sharper to the north of nyc and between nyc and phl qpf going up. If NYC ends up being in a similar spot as say Trenton in 2/5/10, that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 BRO... its not going to just jump 75 miles north like the NAM... but I think the truth probably lies in between the NAM and GFS at this point...Exactly that's not a "cave" lol my point exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Given the trends, I bet it bumps slightly north again a bit at 18z, this is the 3rd run in a row of a slight north trend. But it was higher (than 18z) at 12z yesterday. Then dropped at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 06z and 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If NYC ends up being in a similar spot as say Trenton in 2/5/10, that would be great. In case people have forgotten what sort of gradient we could see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone who is more model savvy than myself may know this but I believe models tend to forecast mesoscale bands too far south and east of where they actually occur. If I have that correct than the NAM is almost certainly out to lunch because I don't think our major banding will be north of I 84 if you shift its idea north a big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So now for Rt.78/NYC roughly GFS 10-15", NAM 20-30"...either way good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Exactly that's not a "cave" lol my point exactly Yea I hear ya... but the trends can not be denied at this point and it probably is not done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone who is more model savvy than myself may know this but I believe models tend to forecast mesoscale bands too far south and east of where they actually occur. If I have that correct than the NAM is almost certainly out to lunch because I don't think our major banding will be north of I 84 if you shift its idea north a big It depends really. Most models can't FULLY resolve mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Someone who is more model savvy than myself may know this but I believe models tend to forecast mesoscale bands too far south and east of where they actually occur. If I have that correct than the NAM is almost certainly out to lunch because I don't think our major banding will be north of I 84 if you shift its idea north a big Very true-we often see a big un modeled band on the NW edge of the shield-I've seen it numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Higher resolution, single model, better design. The SREF is flawed in its two-model design and mixing/matching of initial, boundary, and model perturbations. NCAR-WRF mean is keeping the heaviest banding just south of NYC. I'm not confident in double digit accums in NYC with what we've seen so far at 12z. In addition, without the NAM's tucked in low I can't see how blizzard conditions verify (from a wind perspective). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 12z GFS brings 24 inches up to Trenton and 12 up to NYC...woot woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 a big improvment over a day ago anything over a foot in nyc is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 If NYC ends up being in a similar spot as say Trenton in 2/5/10, that would be great. To also make you feel better the 12z GFS is the same as the 00z euro for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So now for Rt.78/NYC roughly GFS 10-15", NAM 20-30"...either way good As just as a hobbyist - not sure if this is banter - but I'm trying to decipher what this means for MMU. They're only seems to be a handful of Morris County residents here. Thanks in advance! (I cleaned off 2/6/2010 with my leafblower) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 NCAR-WRF mean is keeping the heaviest banding just south of NYC. I'm not confident in double digit accums in NYC with what we've seen so far at 12z. In addition, without the NAM's tucked in low I can't see how blizzard conditions verify (from a wind perspective). Sure, but that's based on a 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Higher resolution, single model, better design. The SREF is flawed in its two-model design and mixing/matching of initial, boundary, and model perturbations. Thanks! I'll be sure to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 As just as a hobbyist - not sure if this is banter - but I'm trying to decipher what this means for MMU. They're only seems to be a handful of Morris County residents here. Thanks in advance! (I cleaned off 2/6/2010 with my leafblower) QPF at MMU is 1.27". Assuming a 9-11:1 snow ratio, that would mean 11.4"-14.0" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 here's the NAM at the start of the 2/5/10 event. the foot+ amounts fell inside the .75" line. if we can get inside that line on the models before this storm i will be excited http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ARC/20100206/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Looking at the gfs hour by hour, against a few other runs at different hours, the model still clearly confused basically, about double barrel low or not... The way the isobars are and all, I'm not 100 buying the jump east. On the other hand, looking at the run, there slight ticks north collectively in a row now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 In case people have forgotten what sort of gradient we could see: Wow, didn't realize even TTN got cut off from a lot. OK, NE Philly then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 I can't remember the last time everything caved to the NAM. Its not a cave to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 QPF at MMU is 1.27". Assuming a 9-11:1 snow ratio, that would mean 11.4"-14.0" snow Thank you! I'd be pleased if that verified. My five-year old was lamenting the lack of snow in December; I tried to explain to him the concept of counting his blessings on snow, since he now seemingly receives annual storms of the century while Daddy had to grow up in the snow drought of the late 1980s and early 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Sure, but that's based on a 0Z run. Yeah, just using it an example of the models that develop a bit of a wall (regarding the extremely heavy banding) near the Belmar latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 So now for Rt.78/NYC roughly GFS 10-15", NAM 20-30"...either way good Bingo... you are east of me but similar parallel - I think right now we went from 8-12 as of 24 hrs ago or so, to a solid 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2016 Share Posted January 22, 2016 Most of the guidance is printing out 2 inches of liquid in CNJ. There's a chance away from the wind these areas go 12 to 1 with those 850s and upward motion. EPS /GFS are all 1.25 in NYC/LI so 12 to 15 looks possible. What a roller coaster of emotions involved with following the guidance over the past week. I have shaved 3 years off my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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