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Ian

Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting

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Hmmm. That's on the low side. I'm probably around 2.5-3" now. I guess further west is the place to be.

I'm at 3.5" Mitch. Don't worry it looks like we are going to be hit hard for awhile. Just check out the stuff coming up east of DC. There is even heavier precip behind that.

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I'm at 3.5" Mitch. Don't worry it looks like we are going to be hit hard for awhile. Just check out the stuff coming up east of DC. There is even heavier precip behind that.

Nah, not worried at all. I was eyeballing it and try to be conservative. Whatever BWI reports I usually accept unless it's marginal temps, when I can do surprisingly better on occasion.

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SN in Upper Marlboro (214 and 193). I've had an odd feeling that we are one of the winners in this event, But whatever

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This first stuff is classic leading edge mid level WAA/fronto stuff as shown in SPC mesoanalysis.

 

 

attachicon.gifH7fronto.JPG

 

However look SW. This is where our good theta-e injection is happening with good LLJ and WAA near 850.

 

attachicon.gif850ADV.JPG

 

 

This area will get entrained into the mid level circulations and aid in heavy snow later tonight and tomorrow as the 800-600 back bent WF develops.

 

attachicon.gif7fronto.JPG

 

 

With the dryslot moving in, as you can see by - LIs moving into the bay, there may be some TSSN in spots tomorrow..especially if the mid levels really go to town.

 

attachicon.gifTSSN.JPG

 

ALl in all, I expect quite the wake up tomorrow in the DC=BWI area.

Thank You SO MUCH! Now I know why I have been doing pretty well tonight.

This is the storm of a Lifetime; thanks so much for explaining it so well.

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Yes, but how is the weather?

Well done sir. We'll done.. lol

Ripping ragging blazing blizzard out there boys and girls. It's like a nuclear snow globe out there.

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Nah, not worried at all. I was eyeballing it and try to be conservative. Whatever BWI reports I usually accept unless it's marginal temps, when I can do surprisingly better on occasion.

Yeah. The only model that showed mixing today for us east of 95 was the 4km NAM. If we get sleet for a time then so be it. I'm hoping we get near the dry slot but not in it and experience some thundersnow.

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