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Jan 22-24 blizzard obs, tracking, nowcasting


Ian

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Just measured 3" in about 10 spots. Temp fluctuating between 23° and 22°. Winds are definitely starting to get going here near the bay. I am going to get yellowed for awhile it looks like. Even heavier stuff moving almost due north from the CaroliCarolinas right up the Bay. Gonna be a fun night.

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SUMMARY...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN   VA INTO EASTERN WV AND WESTERN MD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SNOWFALL   RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HR /WITH LOCALIZED RATES UPWARDS OF 2-3   INCHES PER HR/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.   DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC   SUGGEST A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE MCD AREA IN   RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...AS AN IMPULSE OVER THE   SRN APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE   MATURING UPPER TROUGH. STRENGTHENING WAA AT LOW/MID LEVELS...IN   COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL FAVOR A   BAND OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...LAST   VISIBLE IMAGES PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL INDICATED SMALL CONVECTIVE   ELEMENTS WITHIN THIS GROWING SNOW BAND...FAVORING ENHANCED RATES.   DUAL-POL ZDR AND KDP DATA FROM KFCX CONFIRM THAT DEEPER/STRONGER   CRYSTAL GENERATION ALOFT IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION...IN RESPONSE   TO INCREASING ASCENT WITHIN THE -10 TO -20 C LAYER. KRLX ALSO   DEPICTS SUCH SIGNATURES TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST. EFFICIENT CRYSTAL   GENERATION AND THEN AGGREGATION BENEATH THAT LAYER WILL FAVOR VERY   HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES...WITH LOCALIZED RATES UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES PER   HOUR AND LOW VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0055.html

 

 

 

Notice the greens taking over as more and more flakes develop. That's what that statement ment.

 

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not gonna lie, breeze is kicking up. i'm legitimately concerned about power going out. the wind, this early in the storm, is taking me by surprise. will only get more wicked.

blizzard warning seems like a very good call at this point. this is a big deal storm.

At least it's super dry and cold snow. I shoveled a path down my driveway just for fun. I could have done it with a leaf blower. Colorado powder going on. I'm not worried about loading up the trees and lines yet. One guest and it all blows off.

4" at 8pm.

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Just got in from our second clear off of the driveway. The snow was a bit heavier than the first time, and the wind is picking up. Cleared off about another 3". Previous clear off was about 2 1/2". 

Did't think we had that much. but I live in a south facing apartment.

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re the last hrrr image.  i think i've learned that it's hard to rely on a model that is shifting all over the place.  i think in general the thing to take from it is that there is going to be a "deathband" at some point.  where it sets up, who the hell knows.

 

Exactly... that is beyond the predictability of the high resolution guidance. However, the fact that you see such an impressive band run after run gives you confidence it will develop at some point, and somebody is in for near record accumulations, and possibly >3" per hour snowfall rates. 

 

It may be more useful to think of it probabilistically... where a large region in N VA, MD, and PA has the chance (30-50%) of getting under the 3" per hour snowfall band. As the band begins to set up, it will become more clear who really is going to jackpot from this event.

 

This guidance is available from the NCAR ensemble, which showed the highest probabilities of such a band off to the north and west of DC metro... but DC proper still has a 20-30% chance of getting under it. 

 

url: http://www.image.ucar.edu/wrfdart/ensemble/images.php?d=2016012200&f=snow_neprob_3.0&r=MATL

 

snow_neprob_3.0_f039_MATL.png

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At least it's super dry and cold snow. I shoveled a path down my driveway just for fun. I could have done it with a leaf blower. Colorado powder going on. I'm not worried about loading up the trees and lines yet. One guest and it all blows off.

4" at 8pm.

True. I'm more concerned about the direct impacts of the wind on the lines not so much from the weight of the snow. I know you've said you lived in Colorado. This is definitely pure powder just like there. Loving it.
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Did't think we had that much. but I live in a south facing apartment.

 

We face East/West. The drive way is the east facing. The wind is coming from behind our row and whipping around the side. We may be getting more drifting pumping up those clear off totals. Deck only looks to be about 4", it faces West and is getting the winds. 

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My guess is N and NW of DC is where 3' potential lies.

Yes, that's where it always is no matter what the models show. They always jackpot unless it is a southern storm that is already fringing DCA. A huge band will set up over the northern tier tomorrow and dump for hours and hours while DCA and SE gets moderate snow. Eventually the band will swing through and give DC some sloppy seconds but by that time it will have blown its load.

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We face East/West. The drive way is the east facing. The wind is coming from behind our row and whipping around the side. We may be getting more drifting pumping up those clear off totals. Deck only looks to be about 4", it faces West and is getting the winds. 

I was eyeballing 4-4.5", but hadn't been outside.

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