UpstateSCBud Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Johnny C, just showed all the model snowfall for GSP area: GFS : 12-18"( lol) had a lollipop of 18-24" near TR Nam : 4-8" Euro: around 8" RPM: 1-3 Johnny going with the RPM! Shocker John and Chris got burned so badly on last years storm. They still get trolled about it on Facebook. Going to be a long time before they don't go with the bare minimum amount being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fishel is terrible!!!! Fishel explicitly said not to take the map literally and that the entire purpose was to illustrate that the general trend would be for more snow north and wet and less south and east. Small variations in the thermal profile will greatly affect totals. He said it is within the realm of possibility for someone near the airport to get half a foot of snow. He also said that he would update more specifically as the event begins to unfold. And now you have the rest of the story. Fishel is terrible!!!! What a quack. Who the hell uses logic when forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hahaha. I did say he verbally said so, but my argument is some people and especially people who see the map on an app or Facebook, won't know he said that. Y'all crack me up. Just terrible. And I said I was ranting. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 John and Chris got burned so badly on last years storm. They still get trolled about it on Facebook. Going to be a long time before they don't go with the bare minimum amount being forecasted. Stuff people said about cj on Facebook was bad after that storm. He may have to go back to Charlotte bc of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I love hitting 50 degrees about 10 hours before a big winter storm! better than hovering around 35 all day before precip arrives and going up from there! yipee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Greenville county schools closed tomorrow.Yay! A day off for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yay! A day off for me! If the GFS delivers the goods what is your handle going to be again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 me in 24hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 John Cessarich is always conservative so no surprise there. Always better to bet low and have the system over perform. Oh and he said the "American" models were over doing it. Hmmm...I didn't know the Euro was American. Learn something new everyday.Not a surprise. I would too given the strength of warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Less than 12 hours baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs output is just insane for rdu and gso.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OMG at the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs output is just insane for rdu and gso.... It's warm nose detector was broken that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 OMG at the 18z GFS. Welcome to 2 hours ago! What did the Navgem say?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hahaha. I did say he verbally said so, but my argument is some people and especially people who see the map on an app or Facebook, won't know he said that. Y'all crack me up. Just terrible. And I said I was ranting. Lol You and Brick should do a Fishel/NWS rant-off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gulf Coast convection mentioned in the storm thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Welcome to 2 hours ago! What did the Navgem say?? Sorry, just got out of something, so I am catching up! Look at this. COBB output: StnID: kgso Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 160121/2100Z 3 04003KT 39.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0000Z 6 07004KT 27.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0300Z 9 08005KT 25.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0600Z 12 09004KT 26.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160122/0900Z 15 08006KT 26.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/1200Z 18 05009KT 22.2F SNOW 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 14:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 160122/1500Z 21 06008KT 22.2F SNOW 9:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 11:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 160122/1800Z 24 05010KT 23.4F SNOW 8:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.281 10:1| 8.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160122/2100Z 27 06016KT 23.8F SNOW 11:1| 4.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.426 10:1| 13.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.25 100| 0| 0 160123/0000Z 30 36010KT 26.7F SNOW 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.644 10:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.89 100| 0| 0 160123/0300Z 33 04016KT 26.0F ZLSG 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.201 10:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 2.09 0| 12| 88 160123/0600Z 36 02009KT 25.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.025 10:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.12 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160123/0900Z 39 03014KT 27.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.023 10:1| 19.7|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.14 100| 0| 0 160123/1200Z 42 36010KT 28.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 10:1| 19.9|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.16 100| 0| 0 160123/1500Z 45 35010KT 30.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 20.3|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.19 100| 0| 0 160123/1800Z 48 33009KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.24 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160123/2100Z 51 32010KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.25 88| 0| 12 160124/0000Z 54 33010KT 29.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.25 0| 0| 0 160124/0300Z 57 33012KT 29.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 10:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 2.25 0| 0| 0 160124/0600Z 60 33010KT 27.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IF the weather stations on wundermap are accurate it appears at the surface there is a north or nw wind at the surface to the west and ne wind the further east you go and not warm air from the south the moisture is overriding the shallow layer of cooler/cold at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Isn't Fishel the guy who said 7 days ago " there will be no winter weather in the southeast for the next 10 days"? I know he is the guy who said there was no cold air coming a few years ago the we got below 0 a couple days.#Fishel cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the GFS delivers the goods what is your handle going to be again?Brick_rain! And lunch at QT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Raleigh Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You and Brick should do a Fishel/NWS rant-off! That would be amazing. I'll spare you. LolNWS has 3-8.5 fmby. So, no complaints there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That would be amazing. I'll spare you. Lol Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 how long before.... "the low pressure looks north???? anyone else seeing this??? how will this effect snow totals???" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Just asked GSP about more sleet for I85 and this was their response: latest nam soundings are awful cold. will depend on the southward progression of the CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gulf Coast convection mentioned in the storm thread. Take a drink! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good luck guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Isn't Fishel the guy who said 7 days ago " there will be no winter weather in the southeast for the next 10 days"? I know he is the guy who said there was no cold air coming a few years ago the we got below 0 a couple days.#Fishel cold. Meh, he says that every few days just to rule up the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good luck guys! You too bud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 how long before.... "the low pressure looks north???? anyone else seeing this??? how will this effect snow totals???" Guarantee Widre says the upstream echoes are diminishing at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z GFS RDU COBB output: StnID: krdu Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 160121/2100Z 3 03003KT 40.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0000Z 6 09005KT 27.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0300Z 9 09006KT 25.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/0600Z 12 08006KT 24.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160122/0900Z 15 06008KT 26.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 160122/1200Z 18 05010KT 23.3F SNPL 9:1| 0.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.045 9:1| 0.4|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.04 58| 42| 0 160122/1500Z 21 07014KT 24.3F SNPL 9:1| 2.6|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.287 9:1| 3.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.33 78| 22| 0 160122/1800Z 24 04012KT 26.0F SNPL 2:1| 0.5|| 0.34|| 0.00|| 0.246 6:1| 3.5|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 0.58 30| 70| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160122/2100Z 27 04019KT 27.2F SNPL 2:1| 0.3|| 0.28|| 0.00|| 0.215 5:1| 3.9|| 0.78|| 0.00|| 0.79 36| 64| 0 160123/0000Z 30 06025KT 30.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.190 5:1| 3.9|| 0.78|| 0.20|| 0.98 0| 0|100 160123/0300Z 33 33020KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.525 5:1| 3.9|| 0.78|| 0.20|| 1.51 84| 0| 16 160123/0600Z 36 01020KT 28.5F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.20|| 0.191 5:1| 3.9|| 0.78|| 0.40|| 1.70 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160123/0900Z 39 35016KT 29.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.023 5:1| 3.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.72 0| 0|100 160123/1200Z 42 35015KT 31.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 5:1| 3.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.72 0| 0| 0 160123/1500Z 45 33017KT 31.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 5:1| 4.6|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.78 100| 0| 0 160123/1800Z 48 34018KT 31.7F SNOW 13:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095 6:1| 5.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.87 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 160123/2100Z 51 33012KT 32.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 6:1| 5.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.95 88| 0| 12 160124/0000Z 54 33010KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 6:1| 5.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.96 58| 0| 42 160124/0300Z 57 33011KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 5.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.96 0| 0| 0 160124/0600Z 60 33012KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 5.9|| 0.78|| 0.42|| 1.96 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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