STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter

[BTRWx]

12Z para gfs qpf!

[PhineasC]

I was speaking of reality, not what the model shows

I know the deal around here is to downplay everything, but man these models are all showing this basic idea. 

[nj2va]

GFS steady as a rock.  I do find it hard to believe we have 2' on the ground in 14 hours but I hope its right.

[AlaskaETC]

GFS has had 30-40 across the area for several runs now. With everything but the Euro showing that it seems kind of hard to totally ignore.

 

Yeah...I think the 4K/RGEM/GFS have a good idea that we'll see more than 24" in an area bigger than we thought.

[CAPE]

I know the deal around here is to downplay everything, but man these models are all showing this basic idea. 

Cant deny that, but seems hard to believe it can verify in the metro area in that time frame. This isn't Canaan.

[AmericanWxFreak]

33hr GFS:

 

 

How do IWM ratios work?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

GFS has had 30-40 across the area for several runs now. With everything but the Euro showing that it seems kind of hard to totally ignore.

 

The Euro still shows a couple of feet or so in the metro DC area.

[yoda]

How do IWM ratios work?

 

Believe they are 10:1

[Snowman.]

How do IWM ratios work?

Kuchera 

[CoastalWx]

18z GFS looks closer to euro

[PhineasC]

The Euro still shows a couple of feet or so in the metro DC area.

Agreed. Just saying that every other major model has gone ape to a whole other level and has 30+ across a large area. Euro is a more "mundane" 20-24.

[Snowman.]

Believe they are 10:1

Not 10:1, WxBell at 10:1 has less, they use the Kuchera method.

[PhineasC]

18z GFS looks closer to euro

Seems a little wetter in spots. But 24 versus 30 with 50 MPH winds is sort of a meaningless argument.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Agreed. Just saying that every other major model has gone ape to a whole other level and has 30+ across a large area. Euro is a more "mundane" 20-24.

 

LOL!!  Yeah, I sort of knew what you meant.  It is nice to have the more relatively "conservative" model still pounding the you-know-what out of us.

[CoastalWx]

Seems a little wetter in spots. But 24 versus 30 with 50 MPH winds is sort of a meaningless argument.

I just mean it doesn't have that blob to he south. Seems more uniform. Uniform crushing.

[DTWXRISK]

 total  catastrophic  Model   failure    here    AGAIN

 Snow stopped  3 times  since it began  I  dont have  4inches 
  the sleet will start soon
 

[DTWXRISK]

 GREAT CALL JI  ON WORRYING   HOW THE  WHOLE    THING    WAS GOING TO  FALL  APART  IN DC

[AlaskaETC]

 GREAT CALL JI  ON WORRYING   HOW THE  WHOLE    THING    WAS GOING TO  FALL  APART  IN DC

 

You think it's going to fall apart for DC too? The radar and obs look great.

[DCAlexandria]

Pretty sure DT is being sarcastic

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[DTWXRISK]

  the last  16 runs of the  GFS....   GEFS  high res   ... the last 12 runs of the  the op euro .... the euro eps ...
the last 6 runs  of the RGEM      all of it  100%   wrong

in the end the  ****  ass  NAM  from  60  hrs ago  was 100%  correct  

just wow  

[yoda]

You think it's going to fall apart for DC too? The radar and obs look great.

 

He's being sarcastic

[DTWXRISK]

yes I was 

now I need to go find a  gun and fooking  kill  myself 

 

20 years of this

 folks 10 miles  from  have  2x as much snow 

 

Pretty sure DT is being sarcastic


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[DCAlexandria]

DT get in the car and get a hotel in culpeppee

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[PhineasC]

RIC getting the shaft is as predictable as the sun rising. DCA is to RIC as BOS is to DCA. A tormentor.

[WxUSAF]

Locking this as I think serious model analysis is over.