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STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter


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Seems like all models have been converging on very high amounts through 12Z Saturday.  Even the relatively more conservative runs like last night's 00Z Euro would have the metro areas pushing 18-20" by then.  I cannot even fathom that, to be honest.

agree, seems way to high for that amt of time, overall totals seem high too. based on 67 years of experience, ref 66 blizzard ans snow meggadeon.

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In all seriousness....this is something incomprehensible.   The GFS is almost always so much drier than other models.  I mean, i know we're all saying this isn't possible, but every single models is showing these ridiculous amounts.

your echoing what i have been thinking for a couple of days, considering how many years i have lived here in cent md , going on 60.

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In all seriousness....this is something incomprehensible.   The GFS is almost always so much drier than other models.  I mean, i know we're all saying this isn't possible, but every single models is showing these ridiculous amounts.

 

I think it looks more reasonable compared to the previous two runs... still very wet and am**d, but none of the insane 40-50" totals. 

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And for all those wondering about the precip on the eastern shore being so low, this is nested over DC, so areas on the NE side of the nest are going to appear lower by default I believe. dtk or someone else can back me up if I'm wrong, but I doubt the totals NE of Bmore will be that low.

 

Phewww. had me scared. Thanks for clarification.

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And for all those wondering about the precip on the eastern shore being so low, this is nested over DC, so areas on the NE side of the nest are going to appear lower by default I believe. dtk or someone else can back me up if I'm wrong, but I doubt the totals NE of Bmore will be that low.

I'm not so sure.  This is a one-way nest and I think it is driven by the 12km NAM, so it is probably feeling the effects of that.  It looks like the dry slot is over the eastern shore for a good bit of the end of that run, and a weird evolution thereof at that.  I mean, from F30-F33 a huge chunk of precip just disappears and a giant hole develops, probably some weird effect from feeling the 12km NAM at the boundaries.

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I'm not so sure.  This is a one-way nest and I think it is driven by the 12km NAM, so it is probably feeling the effects of that.  It looks like the dry slot is over the eastern shore for a good bit of the end of that run, and a weird evolution thereof at that.  I mean, from F30-F33 a huge chunk of precip just disappears and a giant hole develops, probably some weird effect from feeling the 12km NAM at the boundaries.

 

Ah. That makes sense. I noticed that too, but I thought it was just some weird cut off of the nest. Thanks for clarifying

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Any mets brave enough to take a stab at SBY's situation?  GFS had been saying 4-5 inches of snowfall pretty consistently, NAM 8-9, and Euro holding out higher at 10+, all models with some mixing/rain.  Now, the GFS is saying 10-12.  I know we're always tight down here with the 850 temps, but what's the thinking around the switch on the GFS?  More cold air than expected?  Less easterly flow (no way, right?)?

 

EDIT: Correction, GFS says 9 for SBY.  Damn low-res maps.

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