Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

STORM MODE THREAD- January 22-23 Mid Atlantic Storm Thread #4 - No Banter


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The ECMWF is a tick north (but barely) on Wunderground at 33 hours. What the EC is probably simulating is something that tends to happen in systems where deep, moist convection is driving rather intense latent heat release aloft...the dry slot tends to drive thru faster and the TROWAL tends to form a tad farther N (or NW depending on upper level jet orientation). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rereading Ji's post, it does look like it's missing two panels.  The 2nd panel is there except for the QPF

 

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DCA LAT= 38.85 LON= -77.03 ELE= 16

00Z JAN22
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
FRI 00Z 22-JAN -2.3 -7.7 1027 51 16 553 532
FRI 06Z 22-JAN -3.6 -7.1 1027 52 17 0.00 554 533
FRI 12Z 22-JAN -3.6 -6.2 1027 54 33 0.00 555 535
FRI 18Z 22-JAN
SAT 00Z 23-JAN -4.0 -6.6 1019 86 99           551 536
SAT 06Z 23-JAN -3.8 -3.9 1010 87 100 0.52 546 539
SAT 12Z 23-JAN -3.4 -5.1 1002 82 94 0.71 538 536
SAT 18Z 23-JAN -3.3 -5.9 1003 81 71 0.18 536 534
SUN 00Z 24-JAN -2.6 -7.0 1009 80 98 0.23 537 530
SUN 06Z 24-JAN -3.4 -5.1 1013 69 81 0.05 543 533 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cmon guys the Euro could be just as wrong or right as many other models on where dry slot ends up.  Nowcast wait and see.

 

I agree. Frankly, the GFS/RGEM runs earlier were jaw-dropping. The discrepancy between the GFS and Euro 24-36 hours out is an interesting situation. No way to know, I suppose, whether the 00z Euro had the benefit of the extra soundings. But one way or another, we'll find out which is right (or maybe neither will be).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...